OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Speak to the moderators/admins in charge. I have no control over that. u guys can't PM each other to coordinate and make the transition seamless? No big deal...just something I've noticed happening with these thread transitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That could be interesting BIrving I saw your quote about snowpacks.. our snowpack is rediculous here! Of we do end up getting another 1-2' of snow, Manchester will seriously have to consider hiring employees to demolish the snowbanks.. it is extremely difficult to turn onto roads safely with these snowbanks... anyway.. I love where we sit with this storm.. looks like a long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think there could be at least some sleet away fron the coast and south of I-84/west of I-91. If the GFS is right, it's a colder storm. Low level thicknesses get very marginal along the CT shoreline too. If the euro solution were to verify, I think you can trim back the sleet a bit further south, but srn CT could very well be a sleet fest. Hopefully the mid levels can tick a degree or so colder with each run, but I think the risk is coming closer by about 40 miles or so. I hope not, but I could see that. NW CT would pretty much be snow. What about dynamics? Thanks for your thoughts, a snow to sleet to snow scenario wouldn't be the end of the world either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think there could be at least some sleet away fron the coast and south of I-84/west of I-91. If the GFS is right, it's a colder storm. Low level thicknesses get very marginal along the CT shoreline too. If the euro solution were to verify, I think you can trim back the sleet a bit further south, but srn CT could very well be a sleet fest. Hopefully the mid levels can tick a degree or so colder with each run, but I think the risk is coming closer by about 40 miles or so. I hope not, but I could see that. NW CT would pretty much be snow. It's a funky storm. Lots of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What about dynamics? Thanks for your thoughts, a snow to sleet to snow scenario wouldn't be the end of the world either. Well that's the thing. It looks like VVs will be through the roof. I have a hard time seeing a lot of IP in places like ORH and BED with a BM track. Now if it moves up to a position east of ctrl NJ and then moves east...then yeah I could see it swinging some warm air in near and above 850 mb or so in places like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I like what the pro said about the cras not being over CPA and the nogaps nudging east. Srefs will be west and the crowd will go wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 u guys can't PM each other to coordinate and make the transition seamless? No big deal...just something I've noticed happening with these thread transitions. We need more full time moderators, some new blood too. These threads move way too fast for 2 or 3 people. Jmho more the merrier. Sea smoke over cape cod bay this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can someone comment on what might take place from Plymouth, MA to about Brockton, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Messenger how are you feeling about your area? Or at least TAN/EWB/PYM Bold enough to make a call at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well that's the thing. It looks like VVs will be through the roof. I have a hard time seeing a lot of IP in places like ORH and BED with a BM track. Now if it moves up to a position east of ctrl NJ and then moves east...then yeah I could see it swinging some warm air in near and above 850 mb or so in places like that. Interior, elevation crusher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Woops Srefs nw fail. That surprises me a lot. It's around now that it was locking in on previous systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can someone comment on what might take place from Plymouth, MA to about Brockton, MA Probably a nasty mix. I would rather wait to see what the 12z runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BIrving I saw your quote about snowpacks.. our snowpack is rediculous here! Of we do end up getting another 1-2' of snow, Manchester will seriously have to consider hiring employees to demolish the snowbanks.. it is extremely difficult to turn onto roads safely with these snowbanks... anyway.. I love where we sit with this storm.. looks like a long duration event You talking explosives? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREFs are a hair SE of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can someone comment on what might take place from Plymouth, MA to about Brockton, MA 12-18" near 128/95, 6-12" inside there to PYM, 3-5"sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Messenger how are you feeling about your area? Or at least TAN/EWB/PYM Bold enough to make a call at this point? First sorry guys that I cannot multi reply. The ipb app doesn't allow it on the cell best I can tell? I also can't seem to do it from a straight mobil browser. Birving, not comfortable at all yet. Srefs east and I'd think great snow, but so many times at this range the Srefs did not get followed by the bulk of the models a few minutes later. Benchmark track I think but I'm not certain....bm plus minus 30-40 miles. Edit: i should add at this range the euro gfs and ensembles have had a benchmark track many times only to fail nw. Very hard to ignore this time that it appears to be a similar trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interior, elevation crusher? As long as said interior elevation is not Tolland, CT. We will sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 03z ETA takes it just se of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok Thanks, I have a large project taking place Thursday morning and I am not sure if I should plan for rain or a frozen mix. Probably a nasty mix. I would rather wait to see what the 12z runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 03z ETA takes it just se of ACK. A lot of SREF members are close to the coast and big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BIrving I saw your quote about snowpacks.. our snowpack is rediculous here! Of we do end up getting another 1-2' of snow, Manchester will seriously have to consider hiring employees to demolish the snowbanks.. it is extremely difficult to turn onto roads safely with these snowbanks... anyway.. I love where we sit with this storm.. looks like a long duration event You mean the National Guard? lol I think the city of Manchester has hired it's quota of taxpayers monies towards snow removal, however politics have changed there a bit... Anyway, we'll be okay with 5-10" of snow. SREFS mean looks like a 4-6" , max 8" for us, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This storm will be Birthday gift from above. I can feel it. La Epic over-the-top. Hope we can get to Funky's this weekend! Models will come around today! Slowly we turn....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxologist Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just got in the office and took a quick look at the 00/F072 CIPS Analog Guidance...and feel this is a very very good analog (19870102) with respect to low-level mass fields and thermal fields. Based on this current fcst I don't think that the snow shield will make it that far into western NY and PA because the mid and upper-level troughs are closer to the sfc and 850-mb lows than in the analog. Regardless...it's a pretty decent match. Analog: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&dt=1987010206&HH=-99&map=4panelA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It would seem that unlike other recent events, an ACK track would cause at least a brieft taint back to this area (128-495 corridor NW of BOS) due to warmer air above the surface. The question is whether it becomes a sleet-fest or a brief deal before the heights crash, etc. Closer to BM probably keeps us all snow, but pattern so far has been for a NW trend which would result in some sleet but still a very nice interior hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam is digging for drug stashes along the nm Mexico border. That seems to be one of thy keys to the varying solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just got in the office and took a quick look at the 00/F072 CIPS Analog Guidance...and feel this is a very very good analog (19870102) with respect to low-level mass fields and thermal fields. Based on this current fcst I don't think that the snow shield will make it that far into western NY and PA because the mid and upper-level troughs are closer to the sfc and 850-mb lows than in the analog. Regardless...it's a pretty decent match. Analog: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&dt=1987010206&HH=-99&map=4panelA 5 h and 8 h are way too far west, Enso, NAO are in different states. Not good IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks to me like the nam is ramping up. Doesnt look great to start but a lot of energy is poised to dump into the forming low along the gom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looking like less snow and more sleet to RAIN not looking good for most of ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looking like less snow and more sleet to RAIN not looking good for most of ct Where on earth are you getting that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have no idea what's going on with the approaching storm system, but I'm determined to enjoy myself and oh my, this soup's delicious isn't it?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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