Hoosier Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 You said it. The December 1 2006 event was such a sad thing. Every global model in the 48-72 had the low travelling through eastern OH. Then we had the NAM and RGEM..................ressies won that one. I remember the NAM at 84 hours had the low way west...I think it might've had a double barrelled structure with one in IL and one in IN but west in any case. I was hoping it was just the NAM being out to lunch but it ended up catching the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I remember the NAM at 84 hours had the low way west...I think it might've had a double barrelled structure with one in IL and one in IN but west in any case. I was hoping it was just the NAM being out to lunch but it ended up catching the trend. We were on the fortunate end of things with that NW shift. It was a real nail biter with that one. At times it looked like we wouldn't see anything, and others it looked like we would get an epic snow. For once our issue wasn't precip type, but how much if any snow accumulation. Luckily for us the storm strengthened as it entered Illinois, and that shoved the western edge of the snow to the west and slammed us pretty hard. Picked up 10-11" here, and that was the last storm we saw 10"+ from. We're overdue here big time. BTW, my avatar pic happens to be from 12/1/06 lol. The attached imaged is one I saved from the NAM a day or so out from the storm. It was forecasting over 30" of snow in some areas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 0Z GGEM showing a storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 0Z GGEM showing a storm next week Looks fairly similar to what the GFS was previously showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 We were on the fortunate end of things with that NW shift. It was a real nail biter with that one. At times it looked like we wouldn't see anything, and others it looked like we would get an epic snow. For once our issue wasn't precip type, but how much if any snow accumulation. Luckily for us the storm strengthened as it entered Illinois, and that shoved the western edge of the snow to the west and slammed us pretty hard. Picked up 10-11" here, and that was the last storm we saw 10"+ from. We're overdue here big time. BTW, my avatar pic happens to be from 12/1/06 lol. The attached imaged is one I saved from the NAM a day or so out from the storm. It was forecasting over 30" of snow in some areas lol. I think I still have that image. The qpf was pretty impressive...not sure what type of algorithm that map uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 It would be nice to get a series of waves rippling up the frontal boundary so we could spread the wealth. I have little confidence in details at this point. The cold is coming, that's about all we can say with reasonable certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Isn't Murray near Moor's Resort? lol used to go there every summer for about 4 straight. they actually got hit by a tornado on 11/15/05, which I'm sure you already knew lol. Yep, Murray is about 35-40 minutes south of Gilbertsville where Moores Resort is. I wasn't in college yet at the time of that storm so I was still in Louisville. Louisville is where I lived up until college. I remember the tornado because my Mom's best friend lost her house due to that tornado. I remember that day vividly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It would be nice to get a series of waves rippling up the frontal boundary so we could spread the wealth. I have little confidence in details at this point. The cold is coming, that's about all we can say with reasonable certainty. I can envision pieces of energy breaking off and our area slowly transitioning to cold late next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 12z GFS at 174 hr has vort going down the back of the trough out west as the cold air presses into the Midwest/OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 12z GFS at 174 hr has vort going down the back of the trough out west as the cold air presses into the Midwest/OV yeah, doesn't really have much in the cold air at this time, but that will be the thing to watch I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think the reason it's showing precip so far west from a storm that is pretty much out to see if due to low resolution...But still nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like there is decent model agreement through 144 from the GGEM and GFS on the 12z run with the energy in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I am loving those 500mb maps for the thanksgiving storm. In fact they don't look totally dissimilar from a certain peak energy superbomb from 32 years ago. This storm could be quite a doozy is things play out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 the Gem has a lot more energy coming down the trough. would lead to a bigger storm...hopefully if that happens the SE ridge breaks down enough for it to traverse south enough to give most of us some winter. Instead of us getting cold, then having it get ripped way back North in front of a larger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Every other word you read on this board is -NAO - outside of our part of the board... I'm ready to slit my wrist if I read -NAO one more time.. Some would be happy if I did that though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think the reason it's showing precip so far west from a storm that is pretty much out to see if due to low resolution...But still nice to look at Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Every other word you read on this board is -NAO - outside of our part of the board... I'm ready to slit my wrist if I read -NAO one more time.. Some would be happy if I did that though lol. Look at the -NAO! Just kidding, don't slit your wrist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 FWIW, so far this cold weather season EURO seems to be getting schooled. GFS was 100% on the money with that non-storm the first week of November, and the GGEM came out on top with the more amplified/further west solution wrt today's storm (EURO was more like the NAM initially). Obviously, this is a non-scientific evalution of the EURO's recent performance. I'm sure somebody'll come along with that graph which plots model progs against actually H5 data and show that I'm completely wrong. LMAO LOL so true. someone always posts those graphs that defy everything that actually happened IMBY......classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Until the midwest posters look at the long range ecmwf..... like say hr 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Look at the -NAO! Just kidding, don't slit your wrist. I just need to except when I venture out of our sub I will see excessive -NAO talk as their winter success or lack there of rides on it a lot. Euro showing a cutter late next week... Pretty sure something is going to go down around that time but where it ends is up in the air.. My guess is another rainy cutter for a lot of us. You wouldn't think so with the NAO tanking but just a hunch. Trough is pretty far west this run so I guess a cutter makes sense.. Next run it will probably be totally different so w/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 lurking and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 euro hr 192 & 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Until the midwest posters look at the long range ecmwf..... like say hr 216. That def looks like a big storm. Too far west for me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Nice consistency from the Euro beyond day 7. 00z reversed to a milder zonal flow and the 12z blasts Iowa with snow followed by cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 That def looks like a big storm. Too far west for me though. Ya i was just waiting for someone to notice it, seems to form along the polar boundary wonder what precip looks like, because i'll be in detroit for thanksgiving so i'm interested even though this solution is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 i know it's the JMA but since the euro is showing a storm...JMA showing it also but a day sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It would be quite funny if the storm cuts right into the relatively strong -NAO/-AO (granted it has happened before). Anyway, looks like some sleet showers are approaching from the west. I have some convective clouds here now after plenty of morning sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Have it 200 miles SE of that track and I am gold. either way some brutal cold would filter in behind it. just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I just need to except when I venture out of our sub I will see excessive -NAO talk as their winter success or lack there of rides on it a lot. Euro showing a cutter late next week... Pretty sure something is going to go down around that time but where it ends is up in the air.. My guess is another rainy cutter for a lot of us. You wouldn't think so with the NAO tanking but just a hunch. Trough is pretty far west this run so I guess a cutter makes sense.. Next run it will probably be totally different so w/e. Not sure if the Euro does tank the NAO though? It may pump up the ridge out ahead of the big system. This is a situation where the GFS and Euro are at odds and one or the other may be correct, or they may flip flop back and forth the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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