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  1. things could be worse for us...we could be tracking josh's jebi chase instead
  2. models are in great agreement on future track. Wonder with such strong agreement and a 115knt typhoon forecast to affect Kadena if Josh is gonna chase?
  3. Josh Cignarelli a local kid who is on top of his game
  4. For those out of @CT Rain s coverage area, he and Josh Cignarelli did a phenomenal job today live for hrs. They absolutely nailed it
  5. Haha nice work, Josh! I headbanged a little. Good luck on your chases this year. May they be as successful as 2017, though hopefully less witnessing to devestation of densely populated areas. Edit: *2017
  6. Nice! Where in Scotland? Josh wants to head up there to take some pictures of the jackpot zone.
  7. In a VERY crappy pattern, It's possible to sneak a little something in, Just like the map Josh posted!! TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers with a slight chance of freezing rain in the morning. Cooler with highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .SUNDAY...A chance of snow showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of snow 30 percent. Not saying it will happen, but as I said before don't need very cold air JUST marginal cold and good timing!!!
  8. One thing Josh there were thousands of wood structures/houses destroyed in PR
  9. Thanks for the clarification Josh and thanks for your great work covering the hurricanes this season. I'm glad you're getting some much deserved national publicity via Weather Nation. The damage photos I saw suggested CAT 3 damage but I will defer to your better informed on the ground opinion. You seemed to get out of the Southern coastal part of the island en route to the SAN Juan airport rather quickly. How did you manage to get out so quickly? Lots of credible reporters on the ground have been saying the roads are impassable.
  10. I agree. Excellent footage! Definitely one of Josh's best/most intense chases (maybe top 3 after Hyian and Patricia?). The extreme wind damage and incredible flooding, as you noted, make this a rather catastrophic event for too many on the island. Thoughts and prayers are with them all.
  11. Post by Harvey leonard was odd, there is aerial video out of Humacao now where Josh was rial
  12. You seem like a nice guy, but you're off the mark here. Six months of no electricity is a huge deal. Outside of that, so is 37 inches of rain in less than two days! Especially with the higher elevations there, that is a recipe for disastrous landslides. I know Josh pretty well, and I'm sure he wouldn't be downplaying the catastrophic impact this storm had. It's also characteristic of these type of events for the full scope of the damage to not be realized for awhile- at least a few weeks. Especially in rural areas. As far as Cat 3 vs Cat 4 vs Cat 5. Honestly, it's a catastrophe regardless of the category. Personally I feel that it was a Cat 4 even if the 155 mph landfall intensity was a bit generous. A little method I use to determine maximum landfall intensity (assuming that the maximum landfall wind is never actually measured) is that whatever the maximum gust that is measured, is the maximum sustained wind for the landfalling system (this has worked out for a number of systems, including Harvey and Irma.) I believe the maximum gust that was measured was 140 mph- so in my opinion this was probably a 140 mph landfalling Cat 4. Cat 5 wind gusts for elevated regions of course.
  13. Most category 5 storms don't have the wind damage that Andrew did right at the core. I don't know if mesovortices have ever been proven as why Andrew's damage was so severe but it had something extra going on. I think I saw a tweet that Josh put this in his top 5 storms. I don't know the context of that tweet but he's definitely been in way more than 5 category 4-5 storms. edit to link tweet
  14. I have tremendous respect for Josh and all his peers like Mike Theiss. Without their images and reportage I wouldn't be able to make such a declaration. I'm not necessarily downplaying Maria. I'm just saying that in terms of sheer power as far as Puerto rico is concerned it's not comparable to Andrew
  15. You might be correct. Who wouldn't want to spend a week or two in the tropics without electricity? You are not Josh. You saw a bit of footage and made a general assumption. It doesn't work like that. You are like the three blind men trying to describe an elephant. One grabbed the trunk and said it was like a big snake. The second grabbed a leg and said it was like a tree. The third felt its side and said it was like a wall.
  16. Josh Morgerman is one of the most experienced hurricane observers on planet earth. He was covering the hurricane for satellite weather provider Weather Nation. In the footage he provided and in his narrative reports I do not see evidence of well built structures being totally destroyed as was the case in south dade county during Andrew. I stand by my assertion that Puerto Rico was hammered by the affects of a strong category 3 hurricane. I expect the Caribbean metropolis of san juan to weather this hurricane quite well and I don't see a devastating effect on tourism.
  17. His twitter account has been inactive for the last 8 hours. He had been giving updates at least once an hour prior to that. Here is his last post. Josh Morgerman‏Verified account @iCyclone 8h8 hours ago More 4:30 am. Building groaning. Airplane sounds. Pressure falling like a rock. 967 mb #MARIA @WeatherNation
  18. Has anyone heard from Josh at all?
  19. Looks like Josh is planning to chase.
  20. 12z Gfs and Euro went west and stronger. Going to be a good chase for josh. Possible sub 930 landfall.
  21. Josh (and James Reynolds) ended up both intercepting in Tuguegarao it appears.
  22. Haima the official name, Lawin used by Philippines. Just in case there's news, same typhoon. Where did Josh set up?
  23. Josh (iCyclone) is headed to the Philippines to chase Haima. The eastern coastal region of Luzon is nothing but mountains and dense rain forest, though, so not ideal for chasing.
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