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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    that's in the far medium range, too. far from fantasy
  2. brooklynwx99
    this will work. HL blocking is insane
  3. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the wave breaking -NAOs are always so tricky. they're usually modeled way better when they're the classic retrograding Scandi blocks
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the GEFS is a lot more like the CMC/GEPS than its own OP
  5. brooklynwx99
    you need to start here first. you know this
  6. brooklynwx99
    GEPS remains mint too
  7. brooklynwx99
    that western trough should retrograde into the typical Aleutian Low for Feb
  8. brooklynwx99
    yup, the GFS evolution is just delayed, not denied. you still get legit Arctic air into the pattern, it’s gotta go somewhere
  9. brooklynwx99
    no you don’t. you guys can hit average in 48 hours. definitely a couple of weeks
  10. brooklynwx99
    at the same time, i think the lack of retrogression on the GFS is due to the fact that it buries everything out west and you don’t have that final wave break
  11. brooklynwx99
    i think the GFS just buries it. doesn’t mean that it’s correct. even if it is correct, it just delays the cold air outbreak for a few days, it wouldn’t be disastrous or anything
  12. brooklynwx99
    prob shouldn’t be using OP runs, but there’s a big disparity here I feel like the CMC makes more sense synoptically, but who knows at this point
  13. brooklynwx99
    if you’re looking at the GFS, sure
  14. brooklynwx99
    one of these things is not like the other i do feel like the first depiction makes more sense synoptically but who knows at this point
  15. brooklynwx99
    i can't do this anymore LMAO i do not know what some people are talking about
  16. brooklynwx99
    the cutter on the 10th was going to be a cutter for like the last 10 days lmao
  17. brooklynwx99
    yup, pretty well defined trend here. that's making the difference, was definitely a nod to the GFS
  18. brooklynwx99
    definitely a trend to phase the kicker in earlier, leading to a much better PVA axis overhead. i'm inclined to believe the GFS is wrong, but this is worth watching
  19. brooklynwx99
    that kicker has certainly trended faster, leading to a more cohesive phase. inclined to believe the GFS is on crack, but this is a convincing trend
  20. brooklynwx99
    exactly. the close the shades stuff is ridiculous with ensembles agreeing on a 2-3 sigma -NAO combined with an Alaskan ridge
  21. brooklynwx99
    this wave breaking is a thing of beauty on the OP GFS
  22. brooklynwx99
    again, you want to be N of 78 and along or west of 287 to have a good shot at plowable snowfall from this. set expectations to zero near the city
  23. brooklynwx99
    EPS trend over the last two model cycles. same story as the GEFS with the trailing wave. definitely ups the CCB potential IMO
  24. brooklynwx99
    positive vorticity advection. basically moving vorticity from one place to the other. that kind of signature would encourage a deform band to form. just not sure if it's a legit trend or nonsense. FWIW, the CMC has also been trending in that direction
  25. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is actually steadily trending towards the kicker S/W phasing with the trough and creating its own axis of PVA. this would have pretty big implications for you guys and even down here into LI/LHV/NNJ
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