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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    as the MJO cycles through phases 3 and 4, we'll see a relaxation in the pattern early-mid Dec... could get quite warm
  2. brooklynwx99
    that's literally where the Modoki events focus their forcing too. lmao
  3. brooklynwx99
    it can, but snows that rare are rare for a reason. you need a lottttt to go right
  4. brooklynwx99
    honestly, even with a perfect track and "cold" air relative to average, it would likely be too warm to amount to much of anything until like Dec 15th
  5. brooklynwx99
    heh
  6. brooklynwx99
    i mean, we’re probably going to see weak intrusions into 4 and 5 but as the Nino strengthens and couples further, 7-8-1-2 will be the main phases
  7. brooklynwx99
    really a very nice pattern heading into the last week of November. wish this was a month later but not much has changed... there should be some threats with this look
  8. brooklynwx99
    really a very nice pattern heading into the last week of November. wish this was a month later but not much has changed... there should be some threats with this look
  9. brooklynwx99
    indian ocean
  10. brooklynwx99
    i get that, but there is a strong El Nino ongoing with strong IO forcing. that should run the show. sure, will we get some periods where the forcing drifts into the MC? yes, but I don't think it'll be a consistent feature. the MJO should stay in 7-8-1-2 for the most part, pushing into 3 and 4 at times
  11. brooklynwx99
    if we had this pattern a month from now I'd be more excited, but it's still too early to see much unless there's a really anomalous setup
  12. brooklynwx99
    it absolutely had an impact IMO
  13. brooklynwx99
    also it's not like it doesn't get cold... just delayed by a day, pretty typical medium range errors when phasing is involved
  14. brooklynwx99
    the IO forcing is pretty handily running the show, though. i don't think the two are really related... there isn't some permanent Nina background state, we've just had a bunch of them recently
  15. brooklynwx99
    much better WB -NAO blocking showing up due to the stronger phase of the Thanksgiving system. hopefully we see this continue
  16. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent
  17. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a better phase with the Thanksgiving system and much more WB -NAO blocking as a result. let’s see if this can remain consistent
  18. brooklynwx99
    good overrunning look there. would be much more excited if it was a month later
  19. brooklynwx99
    shit is so annoying lmao
  20. brooklynwx99
    and you need multiple trimonthlies for a super Nino… really for any category of event
  21. brooklynwx99
    this should be a temporary spike… there doesn’t appear to be another WWB that will sustain the warmth. so i could see a week or so of values over 2C, but a monthly period will be tough to do. let alone a trimonthly period
  22. brooklynwx99
    still gets many on the board regardless, but it is a strong outlier
  23. brooklynwx99
    this is hilarious
  24. brooklynwx99
    i’ll never forget when he was posting about the above average temps for the following week during the Jan 2022 blizzard. told me all i need to know lmao
  25. brooklynwx99
    i don’t know how some are seeing that massive bullseye of warmth near the dateline and are calling this a canonical EP Nino that is not typical, and it’s definitely helping lean the forcing west
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