WxWatcher007

.50” of rain in about 15 minutes!

Ripping nicely here.

#1 was killed by dry air. #2 is 91L. #3 was killed by shear and dry air. #4 disappeared for a while but is now back on the models now that there’s a tangible boundary. It’s (more or less) the central Atlantic lemon. #5 was killed by shear and dry air. Just holding my forecasts accountable.

Hey @GaWx what do you know about 1961? That was apparently a big backloaded season.

Probably going to be waiting a while longer for a US threat lol

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it. I agree. The wave breaking has been lethal so far this year. If I bust on the forecast it is what it is, but you're right about having more time. I have to imagine that things open up more by the latter half of September and that homebrew season in October will produce. Agree--it's pretty crazy to know that we're really in 2013 (or worse) territory looking at the basin. I think the lack of activity in the western Atlantic is a function of waves being annihilated before even getting that far. Usually we have at least a couple trackable waves that get to the western end. The Caribbean one for example looked relatively good before running into the wood chipper. This season just ain't it right now. That said, things can change as climo shifts westward and you don't need those waves to be the seedlings.

Oh it's gone. Bermuda threat, if that.

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some. My forecast is in trouble. The basin is a disaster. I’m going to need late September and October to produce. Rough season for this tropical weenie.

Good convective bursts continue with 91L, but it's easily apparent that it's still a disorganized mess.

For whatever it’s worth, not a whole hell of a lot at this stage probably, there’s some deep and fairly persistent convection over the southern lobe of the elongated low. This is where recon found a semblance of a mid-level feature earlier. Not sure what’s happening under the hood but if it doesn’t get gutted by dry air it could help with organization by persisting overnight. Further south may be better for quicker development odds but dry air is everywhere. Crazy.

Really loving these historical look backs. Thanks.

What I find most interesting is that virtually all the basins have been extraordinarily quiet or had long stretches of quiet.

Nice. I’m dipping my toe in the water. It’s great to do something different and take on a new challenge.

I’m teaching a course on law and public service at UConn this fall. Time flies.

Hopefully the October run continues. That was an awesome storm.

My first class was a success this evening!

It’s hard to believe, but 15 years after I first stepped on campus, I led my first class at UConn. Beautiful evening on campus.

Really incredible rapid intensification from 91…oh wait, sorry, this is the other side of the globe.

I still have hope I’m not going down in flames! It’s only August…it’s only August…it’s…only…

I’m not worried about my 10/6/4 forecast…yet…

Considering we can barely get convection in the entire basin, that’s a step up

It’s pretty wild. Ray really has me wondering if the volcano eruption has something to do with it.

We flush the GFS

Oh yeah, Grace was one that was supposed to have a high ceiling on the guidance and come more north early on in the but it muddled along right up to the western Caribbean and plowed straight west as the track there shows.