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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Aside from the mod risk, that’s a massive area with enhanced risk along the east coast.
  2. WxWatcher007
    .53” on the day
  3. WxWatcher007
    Good luck chasing today.
  4. WxWatcher007
    It has been a very good summer. Aside from the rain, maybe nothing high end, but it has been active, which I’d prefer over one interesting day and boring all the rest (unless it’s tropical)
  5. WxWatcher007
    Meanwhile, we’ll whine about temps and dews. I’m such a weenie. I literally went on a 5,000 mile storm chase a month ago and had two FF events imby and I want more. I’m ill.
  6. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, I don’t think this is one of those days where cloud cover throws a big wrench into things. Like EJ said earlier, I think it’s more likely the soundings are oriented a little differently than initially proved but don’t see evidence of that either currently. It’s a hurry up and wait kind of day.
  7. WxWatcher007
    They actually have to produce but man what a day it could be down there. I was just in DC
  8. WxWatcher007
    Honest to God can’t believe DC got high end severe 48 hours before I arrived and has a moderate risk 72 hours after I leave. I’m cursed
  9. WxWatcher007
    Yes, definitely a three until Ellinwood cancels his chase or EJ goes all in. Literally mirroring a moderate risk lol.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Oh there’s an EML on the table tomorrow? That would explain it I think. I’ve been so busy I admittedly haven’t looked deeply.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Can I ask a dumb question? Is it possible the 45% for DC is partially based on what you all saw last week? As in, we see a stronger wind forecast this time given what the last setup produced?
  12. WxWatcher007
    I wouldn’t ignore the fact that it’s not a more “trusted” tropical model. I do think it’s useful to see a modest signal for TC genesis on the ensembles, but it doesn’t look like a strong signal for a development window, which is obviously the first step.
  13. WxWatcher007
    It’s not much, but there could be a window for some W Atlantic development in the next 7-10 days with a weak signal on the ensembles. There are waves out there, it’s just tough sledding for anything to pop right now.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Today was pretty fantastic. Noticing the earlier darkness now and that’s a little sad, but soon football, fall, and tropical will be here.
  15. WxWatcher007
  16. WxWatcher007
    Totally agree. I think the 15-31st period is critical.
  17. WxWatcher007
    It’s August 3rd lol. It’s usually dead around this time. Rather than focusing on that, I think it’s more instructive to note that despite some objectively favorable windows, the basin did not produce. I think you could say that in a season where the tenor is active, 96L & 97L probably would have developed. That said, Don overperformed. I think August 15-31 is as critical a period for the overall season as any August window in recent memory. Without significant activity there, I think it’d be hard for the AN forecasts to verify given the niño. I still don’t think this is a cut and dry BN season yet given the mix of active and inactive signals. I think I’d lean slightly below normal currently, but normal and slightly above seem reasonable forecasts to me as well right now.
  18. WxWatcher007
  19. WxWatcher007
  20. WxWatcher007
    Would love to get up to Camden Yards someday.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Great day to go to the park!
  22. WxWatcher007
    Looks like they were thorough. My neighborhood just missed out on that microburst lol. Obviously in hindsight I probably should have followed it but that’s really hard to do in an urban environment.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Hard to get one to ride up with a big trough there. I’d love to see one of those AEWs cross the Atlantic and pop as it’s rounding the flexing WAR in a few weeks. If there’s a window for us, I think it’s now to about Labor Day. After that…too many fronts IMO and Nino climo.
  24. WxWatcher007
    The season so far has been ahead or well ahead of climatology to date in virtually every metric. Even more so with niño climatology. I’m bearish on the season, but I still think we’re at a point where the season can go either way. August needs to produce, though. That’s absolutely critical.
  25. WxWatcher007
    For the ACATT crew. It’s coming.
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