WxWatcher007

Crabgrass is awful

Given the persistent troughing, I do think when we get something recurving off the EC in September or whatever there could be higher than normal chances of a PRE somewhere.

Yeah, the position and amplitude matter. We have some middling features out in the basin now but I think the highest potential comes late month if we can get a CAG in the western Caribbean. That’d bring something north off the SE coast or into the Gulf—if the activity doesn’t center in the EPAC.

One of the benchmark floods (still can’t get these to auto populate) https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1692144247342813547?s=46&t=Nn9Cx92_8118fPdhHPdJHw

I think it will. More concerned about the number of TUTTs and shear that will enter the basin.

Good stuff—points well taken. I agree about the TUTTs that look poised to pepper the Atlantic and the subsidence in the MDR are an issue. For that reason I do think eastern/central MDR stuff will struggle, though not as much as before. Perhaps we get one of those three areas along the MT named? Two if there’s enough separation? Nothing spectacular. I’m honestly more intrigued by prospects further west. Like a number of recent seasons, with a hostile MDR we’ve seen some AEWs find a window in the western Atlantic or Gulf for development. Away from the influence of SAL/Subsidence and maybe (?) a gauntlet of TUTTs we get something to pop—like you said though, that’ll require patience. A strong wave will need to survive the trek, and an August CAG is always low probability and even if one develops, the activity could focus in the EPAC. I continue to believe these next two weeks are critical to the overall season. Unlike prior seasons where an active September and even October provided a backloaded season, if the basin underperforms during this late August period, it becomes extremely hard to see even a normal season (particularly in the H/MH spaces) given the atmospheric response we’re seeing to the niño. I guess that’s a long winded way to say I’m not as bearish as you, but I’ve got my eyes on the towel in case I need to reach for it.

Not sure why the two oranges have the same development odds but only one is an invest. Still need to see development of course but it looks like the switch is flipping on with the monsoon trough breaking down into three areas of vorticity, the potential Gulf development, and what looks like a potential quasi-CAG in the western Atlantic/Caribbean. The GFS has a bunch of weenie solutions with that, but that may have the highest end potential long term for a strong system.

GFS led the way on it too…

Sounds like New England

This is why I keep coming back. Congratulations and best of luck.

Two oranges in the MDR and the lemon in the Gulf now.

I think a 0/20 makes sense for the Gulf. Again, it's not that there's anything particularly special right now with the wave, but that there should be a window for gradual development if it can get stay coherent and take advantage of cyclonic flow in the western Atlantic. It's not surprising IMO that the guidance has a marginal signal thus far, and that they've become more bullish as the wave traverses west.

Gradually coming to life...

I honestly think I’d put a D7 lemon on whatever meanders into the Gulf. GFS has something close to a TC but more importantly, the ensemble signal has grown steadily as we get closer to what looks like a conducive environment for gradual development taking shape.

That wave near the Antilles is worth watching. It may not look like much now as it’s consumed by SAL, or show up as clearly in the Gulf on model runs, but the environment in the Gulf a few days from now look good for something discrete to gain vorticity and organize some.

https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1691419471540318209?s=46&t=Nn9Cx92_8118fPdhHPdJHw

Just to Portland. Just over 3 hours. Long day though.

GFS shifted the stripe of heaviest precip north

The sky was really nice today. Drove up to Maine and back today. Beautiful day.

I’ve tried that and it doesn’t work. Just started happening to me a few days ago. Paging @dendrite

I can’t get mine to auto populate now. Are you doing anything special to get your tweets to do so?

https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1691287935927410689?s=46&t=Nn9Cx92_8118fPdhHPdJHw

Good stuff in here the last few days. Still not sure where I’m going to go with my peak forecast but I lean slightly BN.

It won’t but let’s get that little area of vorticity later this week on the GFS to pop over the Gulf Stream and bring us a PRE/Cape landfall

What a year of severe