WxWatcher007

Deeply

That’s why I went lower.

Slight risk out to western/central CT

I was just off. Second place?

12z at 360?

My annual peak forecast is only ten days away. Crazy.

Lapse rates have been an issue all season.

Extremely late to the party.

But what if we’re living in a simulation?

I miss the days when tropical storms were only named when they had 3/4 of an eyewall developed.

NOAA just doubled down on an above average season. Would need the basin to light up soon for that to happen IMO.

Doubling down?

Interesting…

Noticed it too late last night. It looks like dry air is more of an inhibitor than shear and 06z looked a little more organized entering the Gulf than 00z. Would need a lot to develop but as long as it’s convectively active it’s worth a casual eye?

In addition to decaying fronts, I do think we will see a couple of the larger tropical waves that struggle in the MDR find a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic. I also think that once the stability issues break in the eastern MDR we see an uptick in development there, before most of those systems get recurved or shredded by the TUTTs that will be lurking. It looks like the eastern MDR heating up is about 6-10 days away. Unlike last week, it looks like the signal for activity is moving up in time rather than getting consistently pushed back on the ensembles.

Enjoy that while you can lol

It has been relentless and the crabgrass is trying to make a resurgence. Shrubs and bushes are massive now lol.

Congrats PF on the NAM What a model

Yeah more scattered stuff on the HRRR.

How often is Tokyo directly impacted by a TC?

Definitely odd to see the Euro more bullish in the long range, but I do think we’re starting to see signs of life right around when climo begins to take off ~Aug 20. Delayed to be sure as I thought late July/early August would have a window, but I don’t think we get through the month with a shutout.

I’m not a believer that this’ll be a good winter down here, but I divorced winter last year so it’s whatever.

Let’s get one of those tropical waves to pop close to home.

Back to earth

Solid discussion from BOX highlighting the uncertainty tomorrow and flooding/severe potential.