WxWatcher007

Probably going to pass to my north

More environmental recon than structural/in-storm recon lately from NOAA.

Rinse and repeat the last two pages for the next two days.

Saturate the soil so we can take down forests with our 25-35 mph gusts Saturday

Definitely will see watches for the Cape and Maine at some point today.

Pouring in western CT. Two FFWs already up.

Right. Looking objectively at the ensemble graphics I posted, the jump west yesterday was significant. Nobody could have taken one euro op run that was an outlier and immediately jump on board. Agree that this morphs into a compromise deal. That’s usually how these go. I’m thinking just west of Bangor when all is said and done, leaving a fairly close approach for the Cape.

My rule of thumb for tropical is beware the last minute drift east. Not even thinking of nor’easter climo here. Agree with that envelope of possibilities too. Still quite a bit of time to go with this one.

Like I said yesterday, we’re tracking ticks inside 48. Additional movement west on the models probably happens at this range, followed by a slight correction east late. That doesn’t mean the next 1-2 days it’s all ticks west then all of a sudden Friday the last runs are east, or that we go from a solution with the center very near the Cape swinging to the western edge of Nova Scotia Saturday morning. I’d advise the center followers to “smooth out” the op run/ens mean trends over multiple model suites, because tracking tropical and attaching some meaning to each cycle at this range risks losing the forest for the trees. Exact center placement will come…inside 48. While the center pass is not nearly as relevant for coastal areas of the Cape, Maine, and Nova Scotia—and those folks should be preparing if they haven’t started already—it’ll matter inland for areas back my way. Setting aside the op runs, just look at the ensemble shift. That’s significant.

Yeah pretty close. Maybe a tick east of 18z but west of 12z. Ensembles next.

Not related to the forecast portion, but just look at the size of Lee as it begins to turn.

18z GFS 925mb winds (again, this doesn't all mix down) 00z GFS

SW and slightly stronger. We’ll see what the euro does.

It really is.

These tend to shuffle east up here near landfall. I don’t discount that. Doesn’t matter if this continues going west the next few days though.

1) Still a western outlier 2) Watch for the last minute ticks east

Thread really taking off now lol. Agree with @Quincy and I was alluding to the same earlier. Large and well organized wind field currently, with a symmetric presentation of the wind field on the GFS and Euro on closest approach. It’s obviously weaker from a peak wind perspective at our latitude, but the size and organization of the wind field set the stage for a potentially significant coastal event (and inland Maine/NS), with other inland areas at risk for more impacts if this continues westward. 925 wind repost—that is far from a collapsing system just off the deck as it meanders north.

That’s quite a bit west, wow. Time to break out the good stuff. Latest error guidance from UAlbany. There are still some fairly significant errors at medium to short range. The GFS and Euro meanwhile, have gone in different directions in recent days. The difference is that lately the GFS has ticked west from its easternmost solution. Doesn’t mean it’ll adopt what the Euro is trying to do, but each successive cycle becomes important because the errors in the magnitude of the steering pattern should diminish—even if we’re tracking 20-40 mile shifts at close range.

We’re going to be watching 20-40 mile ticks on guidance inside 48 at least with this one. Impacts will be more or less locked in NS, ME, and the Cape by then, but for the inland folk, those miles will matter.

Days and days to go.

West or east, it’s going to be an event up there.

Multi day trend though has been for the Euro/Ensembles to be west. It’s still an outlier relative to all the other guidance, which is why the NHC track is what it is, but it’s totally within the realm of reasonable outcomes IMO for the center of Lee to make a very close approach to the Cape.

My head is there too right now. A lot to figure out as you said. More impactful obviously if this takes a more Euro vs GFS track. I think ET is going as soon as this crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream.

@tunafish I'm poking at some of the posters that seem to forget Maine is New England. In all seriousness though, it looks impactful up there. Euro or GFS. To Ryan's earlier point, even with a further east track there could be some impacts into a greater part of New England than you'd otherwise see with this track, which could still shift. You can already see it setting up. Lee has used its periods of reorganization to organize an increasingly massive wind field. At its peak, Lee had hurricane force winds extend 45 miles and tropical storm winds extend 140 miles. In the last three days, with numerous attempts at an ERC, the wind field has expanded to the following: Sunday 5pm: 45 miles/175 miles Monday 5pm: 75 miles/185 miles Today 5pm: 125 miles/240 miles Look at the expansion the last 24 hours! You don't see that often. It's only getting larger. Expect more expansion with 1) the continuing ERC structure, 2) the eventual turn north, and 3) with the inevitable extratropical transition. The last two MW passes haven't been great, but you can see how it's just working with a massive eye and poised to keep expanding. Looking at recon, a few things stand out. The first is how large the FL wind field has hurricane force winds. I think that tells me that this won't be some hollowed out system at our latitude. There's going to be strong winds over an expansive area just off the deck. Now, to Tip and others' point, how the ET transition happens will determine what gets to the ground. The second thing to watch is the pressure fall. We're still seeing pressure falls, albeit gradual, despite the lack of surface winds. It plays into the point above, but I think this is more stable in structure than we'd otherwise see. The result is a truly massive wind field that will lead to significant coastal issues, high surf (especially in Nova Scotia). Rain and wind will depend on track, but let's look at the two "camps". These are 925mb winds. Tried pulling 950mb winds from Plymouth, but couldn't figure it out lol. The GFS, which is pretty east and in line with the current NHC track, at 12z Saturday Obviously this isn't mixing all the way down, but it's probably a mess for Maine and NS, and even across New England you're getting some stiff breezes. Any ticks west with a strong wind field aloft increases the gusts at least coastal ENE will see. Look at the Euro. It has already been talked about, but with rain this week and more tomorrow, it could be messy for us southerners with a further west track. Even if it doesn't, to Ryan's point, you can see in later frames how winds stay elevated aloft on the backside of Lee. Maine seems locked for an impactful event along with Nova Scotia, but outside of that area, even though it doesn't look high end as currently modeled, there are signs that there could be some decent impacts for part of the area.