WxWatcher007

Maine is Canada. It's a miss for New England. Sorry.

Love it out there. Good luck.

It looks the 12z GEFS are further west generally. I guess we’re just going to be doing the west east jumps until the messenger shuffle at the end.

That’s a valuable insight. I’d say that if Lee doesn’t landfall as a hurricane, it doesn’t make the official return period, but I guess I’m just making the case that this is closer than what we usually track—some named storm that never gets within 500 miles or whatever on any ensemble consistently. We’ve actually had some TS hits and close calls recently in NE.

I’m not talking about the posting, I’m just level setting. It’s about 250 miles as the crow flies between the Cape and SW tip of Nova Scotia. 4-5 days out that’s still a lot of room for movement just looking at the average NHC basin error. West or east. Whether it ends up boring in or backyards or not that’s pretty close at this range.

It may very well slide east and impact NS (where we have posters btw) giving NE nothing but rough seas, but this isn’t like it’s sliding a thousand miles east and that was the D10 prog, D7 prog, and D5 prog and never moved. Our return time for anything interesting is what it is for a reason, but we can near miss just like Charleston, Miami, Tampa, New Orleans, and Houston do all the time too. Close calls with plenty of uncertainty is a hallmark of tropical no matter where you are, and this is a legitimate close call.

Wrong. It’s not black or white hit or ghost chase. Not with this one. Franklin/Idalia sure. We wouldn’t say that in winter for most of what pops and it’s definitely not true in tropical when you’re looking at ensemble and op runs inside 100 hours.

Let’s see what 12z EPS does. It’s one of those things where if it’s the op without meaningful ensemble support you can toss, but with that much support you toss but kind of hold the trash can open wondering if you made a mistake. Will’s comment is evergreen. 100-150 west miles for interesting. It can happen at this range, but a compromise as it currently stands doesn’t get it done. Coastal NS in trouble.

You can see wonky stuff with the op runs, but the ensembles are pretty split. EPS at 06z is even more west than they were before. At least in terms of western members. It’s an odd outlier.

Yeah I thought the model performance as a whole was better than usual but the reality is more messy.

Yup

Really fascinating stuff here OFCL=NHC HFAI=HAFS-A HFBI=HAFS-B HWFI=HWRF HMNI=HMON CTCI=COAMPS-TC

Agree with the other ERC comments, and it’s also true that sometimes rather than fully contracting and trying to reach a new peak in winds, a storm will use its reorganization to expand the wind field. That seems to be the case here. It did get close to C4 again at one point, but then the wind field just kept expanding. It’s dramatically larger than before.

Latest MW

4.34” in last four days

At 18z Saturday. Just a wee bit of difference.

Euro west at 00z. GFS east at 06z. lol

Just interesting to see the Euro/EPS make these kind of shifts. 00z GFS was west, but only a tick. About to find out if 06z will come west too.

Will be interesting to see if the Caribou balloon launches lead to changes in guidance in the next 24-48. As for track speed, I guess we’re watching recon as this turns. Any slower or faster would have ramifications. This is going to keep shifting the next few days.

It’s still west and slightly stronger than 18z. Center well offshore though. Bad track for coastal NS.

Not sure. Been a long time though.

Still finishing ERC per NHC @STILL N OF PIKE

The ERC looks done, and while it’s likely capping intensity, as expected we’re seeing a significant expansion of the wind field. This is before the turn north, and before ET transition.

It’s been a low key super wet few days. I’m just under 4.4” of rain in four days. Glad he’s ok