WxWatcher007

Just happened upon an NFL Network show on the craziest wx games and of course it had the greatest snow game ever played.

I think what I posted was a straight up SST map. Not sure about the anomalies but with so much of the basin a furnace I can see how the difference is not too much along the southern edge of the GS.

I came to the realization after a post-workout nap today that it was time to let go. Installed: Saturday, June 24, 2023

End of the line after a valiant fight. Remnants Of Bret Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Satellite images, surface observations, and ASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that Bret no longer has a well-defined low-level center. The structure of the system more resembles an open wave or trough with a couple of embedded vorticity maximums. Therefore, the system does not meet the criteria needed to be considered a tropical cyclone, and this is last advisory issued by NHC. The remnants of Bret are still producing 35-kt winds in areas of showers and thunderstorms just north of the northeastern portion of Colombia. These winds are expected to decay as the system continues to move quickly westward. This is the last advisory on Bret. However, additional and future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 13.1N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Still there

4” here in the next 90 hours? Toss. Grateful for my .53” today. Basically doubles my MTD total.

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 After a lull in convective activity earlier today, deep convection associated with Cindy has increased tonight. A cold dense overcast with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C has expanded over the center of the cyclone, and a curved band of convection has developed over the northern portion of the circulation. Unfortunately, no recent microwave or scatterometer data are available to assess the structure and intensity of Cindy. The initial intensity of 45 kt is supported by objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates, and a T3.0 subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB. Cindy has a brief window to strengthen during the next 12 h or so. Then, deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over the storm by Sunday in association with an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. This, along with potential bouts of dry air entrainment, should cause Cindy to weaken through early next week despite warm SSTs along its track. The latest NHC forecast shows Cindy reaching its peak intensity in 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. While most the global models agree that Cindy will open into a trough by the middle of next week, the 18 UTC GFS and HAFS runs show the cyclone remaining intact and deepening near and beyond the end of the forecast period. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome, it cannot be completely ruled out at this time. For now, the official NHC forecast continues to follow most of the non-GFS guidance and shows dissipation by day 5, but note that future forecast changes may be necessary. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next few days as Cindy is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The track model spread increases early next week, with the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a track on the far right of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC intensity forecast. Cindy is expected to remain well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.9N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.1N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 22.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 23.7N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 25.6N 64.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

After a big convective blast, Brett is…still trying to hang on. This is a pretty awesome IR loop.

Congratulations @Hazey on the GFS. Euro came around to something similar too. Cindy gets raised from the dead as it interacts with the next weekend trough.

Oh but wait, there's a nice convective flare-up over the LLC to give it a little more life for tonight... lol Going out with a bang

Sun back out lol

Rain here! .01”

The operational GFS and now the Euro bring Cindy back from the dead as it curves northward and interacts with an approaching trough.

The end is near for Bret as the Caribbean prepares to add another name to its graveyard.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret, located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with the area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. If this trend continues, a tropical depression could form as early as later this morning while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Shame we couldn’t get another pass. This one is close and recon has been great at observing the real-time structural changes, that could all be undercut by shear before the next flight.

VDM suggests that this is very near if not already at hurricane status. 996mb with peak FL and SFMR obs over 64kts. Perhaps most notable is the first appearance of a partial eyewall.

Perhaps some over performance tonight by Bret? Numerous 60+ kt unflagged SFMR in the latest obs. Should be noted that FL winds don’t mirror hurricane force in this specific set of obs.

Even better look per recon. Just saw a big extrapolated pressure drop, waiting for the dropsonde.

Wow, I had no idea. So your peak heat climo is June?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 18:47ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: BretStorm Number & Year: 03 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 12 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:25:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.25N 53.43WB. Center Fix Location: 416 statute miles (669 km) to the E (89°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,441m (4,728ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (63.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 18:11:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 117° at 59kts (From the ESE at 67.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix at 18:10:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 31kts (35.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix at 18:33:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 289° at 26kts (From the WNW at 29.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) of center fix at 18:30:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (39°) from the flight level center at 18:10:30Z

High rain rate with the observations, but FL winds of 59kts and a few 55kt SFMR readings on the NE to SW pass. No real pressure fall though on the center pass.

First VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:37ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: BretStorm Number & Year: 03 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 16:55:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.21N 53.12WB. Center Fix Location: 436 statute miles (702 km) to the E (89°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,436m (4,711ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 2kts (From the SSW at 2mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 53kts (61.0mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 16:51:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 59kts (From between the ENE and E at 67.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix at 16:31:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 36kts (41.4mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SSE (155°) of center fix at 16:58:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 197° at 42kts (From the SSW at 48.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix at 17:08:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) which was observed 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NW (322°) from the flight level center at 16:31:30Z