WxWatcher007

Recon doing its thing right now.

Six months LATE

Haven’t installed yet.

Bret is trying to organize again despite the influence of mid level shear. We’ll see if that trend continues enough to develop an inner core.

I need rain

Nice convective burst right over the center in recent hours. Needs to hold for meaningful organization and eventual intensification.

Shear took a tremendous toll on Bret overnight despite an earlier organizational trend. Euro may have a victory with the long term forecast.

Not so much now with an exposed center.

This was when I went to sleep lol.

Didn’t expect the presentation this morning based on how it looked last night.

GFS op moved toward the Caribbean graveyard route. I’m really just in wait and see mode.

Definitely a lot of haves and have nots. Even with little rain, my solar production has been abysmal for June. A lot of clouds (and smoke) and nothing to show for it other than browning grass.

We’ve been talking about a wetter pattern, and I have .46” of rain this month. I’m deeply skeptical much changes.

A slight pullback on the intensity forecast, but still noting high uncertainty. Development of a robust inner core will be critical for long term survival. Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023 This evening, Bret's structure on satellite has evolved from a curved banding pattern to a growing central dense overcast near the estimated center. The exact location of the center is tricky to pinpoint though, most likely positioned just west of the deepest central convection. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35-kt at 00 UTC, 37-kt from UW-CIMSS, and unfortunately there have not been any helpful microwave or scatterometer passes this evening. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the majority of the available data. The initial motion appears to be just north of due west at 275/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge that is currently positioned overhead of Bret will initially follow along with the cyclone, maintaining a west or north of due west heading for the next 48-72 hours. As the system approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to amplify somewhat, with the vertical depth of Bret likely to influence its future track. Once again there is a large spread in both along and cross track model predictions, with the ECMWF on the south and west end, and the GFS and some of the strongest hurricane regional models (HWRF, HAFS-A) on the north and east end. The consensus aids have shifted ever so slightly south and west from the previous forecast cycle, and the NHC track will follow suit, especially beyond 60-h. However, there continues to be larger than normal uncertainty in the track forecast given the large spread of the guidance suite. In the short-term, environmental conditions remain quite favorable for additional intensification, with shear remaining under 10-kt, and ample mid-level moisture and anomalously warm SSTs maintaining a favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, steady intensification seems likely for the next day or so. However, between 36-60 h, mid-level moisture begins to markedly decrease along Bret's forecast track, and both the GFS and ECMWF suggest mid-level northwesterly shear may begin to undercut the more favorable upper-level easterlies. This is where the intensity forecast becomes tricky, since a more vertically coherent system could be more resilient against these less favorable conditions versus one that remains less aligned and more susceptible to dry air intrusion. The intensity guidance also diverges over this time frame, with some of the regional hurricane guidance showing continued intensification, compared to leveling off from the global model guidance. The latest NHC forecast is a bit more conservative at this time frame, but still shows a peak intensity at hurricane intensity between 48-60 h. Thereafter, even drier air and additional shear is likely to begin a weakening trend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit more weakening than the previous cycle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is forecast to initially strengthen and then move across the Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 11.4N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 11.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 12.3N 48.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 14.3N 59.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 15.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 16.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

No (edit: current) intensity change at 11pm.

Despite the slightly warming cloud tops recently, Bret has continued to organize nicely this evening. We have a CDO and periodic hot towers attempting to rotate around the center. At 5pm, the NHC noted that the LLC was on the NW edge of the deeper convection. I don't have a microwave image, and that would certainly be telling. At any rate, it's looking dramatically better than it did 24 hours ago.

Yup. Wonky lol

Knew a wonky happy hour run was coming at 162 with that GL trough, Cindy (93L) and Bret sandwiched in the middle.

I really am starting to think the MDR being open like this may be an early signal of a more active season. It’s not just that much of the basin is historically warm…the TUTT is displaced northward and with this early wave train we are seeing no issues with stability and SAL like past years. To get one TC is historic for this time of year, the guidance is trending toward multiple TC genesis opportunities in the next 10-14 days.

I don’t think it’ll get that far west, but I was saying in the Mid-Atlantic thread that I like Elsa as an early analog. I think there will be shear, but the euro is too aggressive tearing it apart and driving it due west into the Caribbean. IMO.

GFS is going to be wonky but that’s an upper lever pattern that suggests a close approach at least should the Great Lakes trough cut off, which has been a theme of the season over the eastern US.

It’s an aggressive opening bid, particularly for the Caribbean portion. I thought it would make it to the islands as a minimal cane, but get blown to bits by shear afterward. That said, we have numerous examples of TCs in this basin recently that were either resilient in the face of shear due to sound structure, or exceeded initial expectations to an extent because of shear intensity/vector forecasts missing. Hopefully with a well defined LLC now we can get some kind of convergence on guidance in subsequent suites.