WxWatcher007

Unsurprisingly, this evening the NHC designated the area of interest in the eastern Atlantic as Invest 92L. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is currently producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Papin TC genesis still needs to occur, but thus far this has been a remarkably well forecasted window for development, which @GaWx notes is highly anomalous against the historical record. There are a few reasons why this seems to be a very favorable window for development in the next week. First, SSTs are historically warm for this time of year. It's warm throughout the basin, but in the MDR it is particularly hot. Much higher than normal SSTs have allowed the MDR to be conducive at least thermodynamically. Why? In large part because of the mid/upper level pattern we haven't seen strong trade winds, or SAL, to temper warming in the MDR east of the Antilles. Just as important, we see a highly anomalous amount of OHC throughout the basin. This is a gif I quickly put together showing OHC values from 2016-2023 in mid June. And today's value as a single image: This is only one piece of the puzzle, however. In this region we also have reduced shear, and higher moisture levels, critical elements in TC development and survival that are usually hostile this time of year. It's about as good as it gets, currently. Here's the 12z EPS using 5 day averaged wind shear anomalies. This is an incredible look that has trended more favorable in recent days. Just as impressive is the moisture envelope. In recent years, dry air and stability put a cap on TC genesis and development, especially in the central and eastern MDR. That does not appear to be an issue this time, which again, is extremely impressive for mid-June. Coupled with the passage of a CCKW, and this all leads to a highly favorable environment IMO for TC genesis. This would be a highly favorable environment in September. It doesn't look like much now, but ASCAT shows that while elongated, it is trying to gradually consolidate. I think it will, and from there it'll be a question of 1) how quickly 92L can take advantage of the favorable environment, and 2) what the longer range steering pattern evolves into There's not much more to say yet, other than the operational guidance has become more bullish on intensification in the last 24 hours for the above reasons. As for track, while both ensembles (EPS/GEFS) look to favor an eventual recurve, it is extremely early to look long range on steering, though climo almost always favors a recurve, especially in the current upper level regime. I would watch closely in the Antilles.

It’s rains to Maine either way

That cell down near Fredericksburg looks nice.

I think it’s too early to say anything about the long range steering pattern, other than OTS is almost always the betting favorite for CVs. I think the weakness in the subtropical ridge makes it more likely we see a recurve, but the persistent troughing in the eastern US is something to watch, particularly since we’ve seen a lot of cutoff lows that could serve as a capture mechanism. Either way, this is highly anomalous, even though we had Elsa recently.

This is about as good as it gets for early season MDR activity. It’s an intriguing environmental pattern over the next 5-10 days.

This is a really interesting setup. Guidance getting more bullish as the wave tries to organize a bit today.

Most robust intensity guidance yet from the Euro.

I almost think about the chases I missed as much as the ones I hit on. For every Florence there’s a Michael. For every Fiona there is an Ian. Honest to God, having a big in person event scheduled the day Ian made landfall may have been a contributing factor to me leaving my last job. Aren’t we at or near peak climo for severe around here? I’m not really feeling bullish about the back half of storm season given the crap this far.

Multiple tor warnings down there. Surprised you didn’t give it a go.

You'd think it were August with this look in the eastern MDR.

Good luck

Pretty weenie GFS and Euro runs today. It’s fantasy range but you just don’t see a long track CV this time of year like the happy hour GFS, even on guidance.

This is one hell of a tornado watch

Just a quick gif I put together. There used to be a fantastic resource that had daily TCHP/d26 daily plots going back decades. Until the gov made it password protected. This is recent OHC, the scale changes pre 2016.

A little harder to run a comparison, but they’re high end anomalous as well from what I’ve seen.

I mean, the Euro has some general vorticity sure, but it’s nowhere close on the operational or ensemble guidance to supporting a tropical cyclone IMO. That’s an island to me. I’m just not sure that there’s enough in the western Caribbean to spin something up. Could be wrong, but I just don’t see a conducive enough environment yet.

12z Euro trended more robust with the wave leaving the African coast today. Pretty strong model consensus that the MDR is ripe for a TC next week.

This looks awesome. Not tropical but it looks like the low this weekend has trended a little stronger on the Euro. Messy weekend on tap.

I’m still deeply skeptical of anything coming out of the western Caribbean. GFS and its ensembles are on an island right now—doesn’t mean it can’t score a coup but it just seems TC genesis happy there, which is a known bias.

Summer of bore continues as we spend this mid-June afternoon writing about PG rated tropical fantasies and what could have been in a winter that passed thirteen years ago. What a time to be alive.

It won’t happen but it raises an interesting question for me: what’s the earliest hurricane strike on record in NE?

Quite early. Operational guidance has gotten more aggressive with TC genesis in the MDR but the signal has been there for a while. Not sure about the environment in the western Atlantic in 7-10 days though allowing for something tangible to survive with a TUTT lurking. It’s historically warm across much of the basin. Just outrageous anomalies.

Lemon in the MDR now.

This is a horrifying, yet hilarious, thought.

Here’s a real storm Wild day down south.