WxWatcher007

I didn’t think the thread had any particular slant, but wanted to share the meteorology to those following. I’m actually a little more skeptical today that this’ll be beneficial to anything other than major basins, but I really have no knowledge of what’s needed out there and how it should fall.

Not quite. SAL has been historically low until recently. Sometimes you get a double edged sword of stronger waves kicking up more dust. Climatology suggests that the SAL becomes less of an issue in September and early October when the MDR is at its peak. On Hilary, an excellent thread on the meteorology behind the rain threat. FFWs already being issued as the PRE hits Nevada.

One of the best threads yet on why a historic rainfall event is likely.

It has absolutely been too amped IMO this season, but it has accurately predicted the breakdown of the monsoon trough, and I think it’ll be right with TC genesis in the Gulf next week. I think it’s going to be really complex, but I do think something tries to come out of the western Caribbean or Gulf late next week with some kind of land threat the last week of August as a result.

For whatever reason that doesn’t work for me. Yeah—no comparison IMO. Not only is this a direct hit where Kay hooked left south of the US, the rainfall is likely going to be unprecedented in the modern record for some areas. It may not be apocalyptic in LA/San Diego, but the D3 high risk suggest that it will be catastrophic in some of those areas. The wind is a distraction, even though coastal southern California rarely sees TS winds…from a TS.

Euro, GFS, and CMC all have something trying to come out of Central America/EPAC into the basin late next week. It’s entirely irrelevant how strong those op runs strengthen something in the long range, the signal is what matters. There are a lot of moving pieces here.

Not a lot of time in the storm. Already done. No sampling of the southern half.

First VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 18:37ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300 Storm Name: HilaryStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2023 (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 18:02:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.16N 111.94WB. Center Fix Location: 352 statute miles (567 km) to the SSW (202°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,664m (8,740ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 948mb (28.00 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 11kts (From the SSW at 13mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 93kts (107.0mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix at 17:57:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 113kts (From the SE at 130.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix at 17:56:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 85kts (97.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix at 18:16:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 57° at 96kts (From the ENE at 110.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 18:17:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 113kts (~ 130.0mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center at 17:56:30Z

Looking at IR, the best stuff may be in the southern half of the hurricane. We’ll see.

Went from the eye into the NW quad, where they have found max FL of 96kt and SFMR of 85kt.

947.4mb extrapolated in the center. They’re circling in the eye so unclear which quadrant they exit toward.

Not all the way through but 957.0mb extrapolated pressure with peak FL wind of 110kt and SFMR of 93kt.

40% D7 odds now for the Gulf

Yeah, SFMR of 64kt only came in last few obs

Still on approach to the eye. Nothing surprising showing up yet. Spotty data coming in.

The winds weren’t nearly as strong but one of my favorite pictures from chasing Florence came from watching this roof across the street get walloped. Hadn’t seen rainfall like that until…the 14.4”/hr rate here earlier this summer.

Recon down to about 10k feet. Entering from the NE quadrant and will likely conduct a NE to SW pass.

Yeah, I’ll do my best. Recon descending in now. Two sites for those that want to follow. Didn’t think I’d be looking at EPAC recon before anything in the Atlantic. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF300-0109E-HILARY http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=AF300

Recon entering Hilary now.

Really starting to like the last week of August. Not for here

Interesting that the GFS now follows the euro and tries merging the lemon and 99L. Really complicated forecast for the Antilles. Meanwhile, models continue the signal for the eventual Gulf lemon. It’s been thrown around, but I kind of like the weaker Hanna analog.

The underrated days produce. Wow.