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Everything posted by WxWatcher007
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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Problem is it’s September not January -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
We hope, though my concern is that we flip this in November. -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I was hopeful too, but deep down I knew hydro was coming back. This is made all the more impressive by the fact that this is the first heavy rain event here that’s directly influenced by tropical. In 2021 and a lot of the other big rainfall years tropical had a heavy influence. -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
18z -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Yup, rain's the story here. If we can get that axis of heavy rain over us Saturday or Sunday watch out. I'm at 7.55" since September 8. Unreal how wet it has been...my lawn is having trouble draining lol. -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Keep the rain/snow line over Manhattan please -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Here are the anomalies And actual temps -
Seeing that LLC become better defined, but like the NHC stated, center reformations will be possible. We'll see how the next few hours go, but it's coming together. Likely won't become tropical until it's closing in on NC.
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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Nah, this should go over NC and into the Mid-Atlantic. Makes it post tropical up our way unless it trends east and stays off the coast—even then the waters north of the GS are cold. Shear is high off the SE coast too so while I think it can trend a little stronger there is a ceiling. -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I think there’s a good chance this keeps trending a little stronger. The 50kt opening bid by the NHC is a nod to those stronger global runs. Looks pretty wet here. Not sure how that’ll trend. -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Homebrew delivers. -
I love it.
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Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Agree. This looks like an uncommon SE homebrew in the sense that it’s forming on an old boundary and not getting shunted ENE out to sea. Atlantic ridging FTW. Might have some good gusts along the CT and LI coast with the gradient from the developing high to the north. -
Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
PTC 16 coming at 11 now. -
Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Corrrected time in the product For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to raise probabilities and update discussion Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Off the Southeastern United States Coast (AL99): Updated...A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and there are increasing chances that this system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, this low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for this system as soon as later this morning. Additional information on this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
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Wondered why they didn’t go higher earlier. Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Corrrected time in the product For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to raise probabilities and update discussion Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Off the Southeastern United States Coast (AL99): Updated...A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and there are increasing chances that this system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, this low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for this system as soon as later this morning. Additional information on this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.