Radar looks light for the NYC metro area currently. Below is Upton’s thoughts.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1048 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure impacts the region today through Monday. High
pressure then briefly builds in for Tuesday. A frontal system
approaches Wednesday night and will affect the region through
Thursday night, and possibly the first half of Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry air in the low levels as noted on the 12Z KOKX sounding
keeping precipitation light and scattered thus far. Surface
dewpoint depressions are on the rise, but bulk of the
precipitation remains southeast of the area. Short term CAMs
are suggesting some potential for thunder later in the
afternoon than originally forecast, and so updates have been
made reflecting this.
Surface low pressure over the Ohio Valley will track eastward
today while a secondary low develops near the Mid-Atlantic
coast. This low will become the primary low and track just south
us tonight into Monday. Expect periods of rain today. Rain
starts off mostly on the lighter side. More intense rainfall,
mostly moderate, starts in the second half of this morning and
lasts through the first half of the afternoon as models have
trended drier in the mid levels during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This moderate rainfall will coincide with the
strongest thermal and llj forcing, synoptic lift from upper jet
streak dynamics, and deepest moisture available as an H8 theta-e
ridge shifts through. The mid-level drying casts more doubt on
the chances of an afternoon thunderstorm as mid-level lapse
rates steepen and elevated instability shifts through, but the
strongest overall lift is exiting. Will still leave in a slight
chance of thunder and the potential for at least moderate
rainfall for the entire afternoon as confidence is not high
enough to remove the mention completely. It`ll be breezy,
particularly for coastal sections with an E-NE flow. High
temperatures will be well below normal.