hudsonvalley21

Definitely fringed here. 0.07 in the bucket.

0.25 for the day.

You rarely see Orange County mentioned in SPC,s meso discussion. Watch hoisted till 9pm tonight. Mesoscale Discussion 1621 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 1621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the northern NJ...southern NY and much of New Enlgand Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311639Z - 311745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the next couple of hours and shift northeast across the Northeast U.S. These storms will pose a threat from strong, locally damaging winds, and a watch may be needed in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Strong heating ahead of a surface cold front was apparent in 16z observations from the mid-Atlantic into New England where temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s were already being reported. Southwesterly low level flow is maintaining a very moist boundary layer, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The net result is a corridor of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the region. An MCV was noted in radar loops, approaching Albany NY as of 1620z. Thunderstorms were beginning to intensify on the southern flank of this feature across Ulster and Orange counties in NY, and Sussex county in NJ. Given the aforementioned downstream environment, continued intensification of these storms is expected. While effective shear remains modest (around 25 kt) some localized enhancement aided by the MCV is possible, and organized line segments capable of mainly strong, locally damaging wind gusts is possible as storms track east/northeast through the afternoon. Additional CU development was noted in visible satellite imagery across portions of CT into RI and MA where the strongest heating has occurred. A surface trough also was apparent in late surface analysis stretching from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity northeast into central ME. Convective initiation could eventually occur from the CU field, which appears to be co-located with the surface trough. Modest deep layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will temper more intense cells. However, high PW values and sufficient instability, combined with steepening low level lapse rates will support multiple bands of storms capable of strong, locally damaging wind gusts. A watch may be needed in the next hour or so across portions of the Northeast. ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/31/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40587281 40427378 40717447 41007472 41497464 41907449 42517378 43397256 44007163 44277105 44317052 44147025 43917020 43347037 42547070 41867098 41477132 41097165 40667253 40587281

DCA: +1.6 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +1.9 ORD: +0.4 ATL: +1.2 IAH: +1.3 DEN: -0.2 PHX: +0.8 SEA: +1.8

3.16 event total thru 8am this morning. A few more showers still possible today.

0.54 overnight and thru 8am this morning bringing the event total to 3.16.

2.62 in the bucket today as of 9:45pm. Still light rain falling. Radar looks good for some more on and off showers thru the overnight.

1.74 here so far at 6:15pm. PWATS are around 2.0 in the area. Still a couple of hours of rain yet to come. Currently 27 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.

The way the radar is looking currently, we should get some decent rains for the next few hours. Up to 1.02 so far. Orange County is under a flood warning till 8 pm. PWATS is currently at 2.0 for are area.

Same here with the first line that came thru. 0.73 in the bucket so far.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 141 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 PAZ048-221830- Pike PA- 141 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...PIKE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT... At 138 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Pecks Pond, or 13 miles west of Montague, moving east at 25 mph. Strong wind gusts will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Port Jervis, Bushkill, Shohola, Matamoras, Milford, Greeley, Pecks Pond, Dingmans Ferry, Millrift and Twin Lakes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. &&

Oh yea. Hoping for some beneficial rains. Nice activity out by Port Jervis, hope it slides right along 84

Mesoscale Discussion 1568 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 1568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Areas affected...southern New England southwest to northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221711Z - 221845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk -- mainly in the form of locally damaging winds -- will increase over the next new hours across southern New England and the mid-Atlantic region. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be required. DISCUSSION...Despite modest lapse rates aloft, daytime heating of a moist warm-sector (east of the advancing cold front crossing western PA and south of a warm front lying from northern PA to southern New England) is allowing gradual airmass destabilization to occur. Latest visible imagery continues to reveal cu/cb development, within the zone of clearing (per visible imagery) east of the higher terrain. With continued heating/destabilization, and a gradual increase in southwesterly mid-level flow across the region ahead of the advancing upper trough, the environment will become increasingly supportive of organized storms. Attendant risk for locally damaging winds will accompany stronger multicell/transient supercell storms, with this risk expected to become sufficient to warrant WW issuance within the next hour. ..Goss/Guyer.. 07/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... RNK... LAT...LON 42027265 41767146 40977189 40377395 39517467 37847631 37547877 38047943 40407734 41677415 42027265

I picked up 0.09 out of that one.

Love this section from Upton's AFD. Nice explanation of capped. Expecting mostly dry weather today but mesoscale models depict a departure from this picture with isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Model soundings still appear to be capped in the mid to upper levels and with 500mb heights still mostly near and slightly above 590dm, only went with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The POPs reach near 20 percent, timed to when a subtle shortwave with positive vorticity advection approaches closer to the region. In addition, with all the heat, the instability will be very high as well, with surface CAPE potentially reaching 2500 to 4000 J/kg. So any less cap aloft and any more forcing aloft, could easily generate a quick shower or thunderstorm given the highly buoyant air.

0.23 here for the day.

The earthworms are spitting out dust. They will be jumping on tumbleweeds and heading out of town this weekend.

Jackpot today, just missed out on matching the monthly total. 0.21 in the bucket now up to 0.43 for the month

Same here too. Ground is rock hard now, gave up watering the lawn a week ago. Just watering the flowers and garden. With the upcoming torch this weekend, it would be senseless to water the lawn. Also not many trees to provide shade. Rain total for the month so far here is a whopping 0.22 in the Davis.

How many fireflies for philly.

If you woke up in the middle of that night to go number one, you didn't have to turn the light on.

Most I've seen in a few years.

0.04 in the Davis up this way today. Just to the north of the heavy activity.

0.04 in the bucket today, not even enough to fill those cracks up. now a flash flood warning in extreme southern orange and rockland counties.

Hate to boast,I got double that amount. So we're not just the snowhole. Grass is starting to brown out in spots.