hudsonvalley21

Hope all is ok

Upton 613 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will send a warm front across portions of the area this evening, then passes to the east late tonight followed by a cold frontal passage. Another wave of low pressure will track along the front on Wednesday, passing near or just south of the area Wednesday night. The boundary lingers south of the area into Thursday. A cold front then moves through the region Thursday night, with brief high pressure returning for Friday into Saturday. Another frontal system will move through on Sunday, followed by building high pressure into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Based on radar and stlt, the tstm risk has been slightly slowed. Otherwise, the fcst is on track. Warm front approaching from the southwest separates a moderately to highly unstable airmass to the west and a stable marine layer to the east. As low-level winds continue to veer to the south this evening and the warm front works into portions of the area, ingredients will be in place for the development of scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms. Latest HiRes guidance shows boundary setting up across NYC metro, Long Island, and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. This combined with 0-6 km deep-layered shear of 40-50kt and 0-3 SRH value around 400, supports rotating updrafts and strong mid-level mesos should convection be realized. The main threat will be damaging winds and large hail, but isolated tornadoes are a possibility, especially just west of the NYC metro where surface based instability will be highest. Of course, where the boundary resides this evening will be key player to where the damaging winds and tornados can be realized. As the cells propagate east, they will become elevated due to the marine layer. Large CAPES values out east and the maintenance of the low-level cold pool though could briefly scour out the marine layer even for areas just east of the NYC metro. Most likely timeframe for the convection is between 6-10 pm, with the Lower Hudson Valley and interior northern NJ on the earlier side of that range. Convection looks to initiate north and west of the area in association with the boundary across the NY/PA border, then drops south and east of Long Island toward midnight. Localized heavy rainfall is likely with the strongest activity, but a WNW storm motion in excess of 30 kt should limit the flash flood threat. Cold front passes through by daybreak with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, slightly above normal. There is moderate risk for rip currents at the Atlantic beaches this evening, except for high across the beaches from Nassau west due to moderate S/SE winds and building waves.

Activity beginning to develop along the Pa/NY state line just to the west of KGBM. We'll see if it can survive.

61/61 here with a low cloud deck

The vis loop a couple of posts up show the lower level pushing due north instead of northwest, wonder if that will keep the marine layer from pushing as far inland.

Mesoscale Discussion 0762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0824 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019 Areas affected...Parts of Upstate New York...central and eastern Pennsylvania...northwest New Jersey. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225... Valid 240124Z - 240330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms continue across parts of the northeast. While a threat for isolated severe hail/damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado persists in the near term, nocturnal stabilization is expected to limit the temporal extent of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters and occasional supercell structures have been observed across portions of eastern Upstate New York into central Pennsylvania over the past few hours, a few of which having a history of isolated damaging wind gusts. In addition, KCCX radar data has suggested that a few storms across south-central Pennsylvania may have produced severe hail, evident with MESH thresholds exceeding 1-2 inches in some cases. The boundary layer remains relatively warm and marginally unstable, particularly across central Pennsylvania, where the greatest potential for severe wind gusts/large hail exists in the short term. Kinematic fields also remain favorable to support short term threats of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado (particularly with the south-central Pennsylvania storms). However, nocturnal cooling will stratify the boundary layer, increasing inhibition and weakening storms within a few hours.

The

1.21 in the bucket yesterday and 0.20 so far today. Just for insults, last years high/low for this day Newburgh had 73/55. Currently 45 degrees.

Hopefully you will get a few hours between the areas of rain today. Enjoy!

Enjoy the weekend

Are you sure it's not Bud light? Oh well, rain hat looks good.

DCA: +1.3 101 NYC: +1.2 100 BOS: +0.7 96 ORD: +0.8 99 ATL: +1.9 99 IAH: +1.0 103 DEN: -0.1 100 PHX: +0.3 116 SEA: +0.7 94

I think we should hould see at least that. What's also interesting is the current activity that's off the NJ coast and south of LI. Seems to be holding together in the marine environment.

Just added another 0.20 in the bucket with the line of showers that moved thru. Total of 0.71 since midnight.

Sleet in eastern Orange county.

A few gusts around 30 mph in the last hour. Stirring up some leaves from last fall. Oh double joy.

yup totally agree. Had a cancerous melanoma removed from the top of my head last summer. Didn't even know it was up there. Wife spotted it, dermatologist and plastic surgeon said she probably saved my life since it was in a spot where you can never see it.

DCA +1.8 NYC +2.2 BOS +1.7 ORD +1.8 ATL +2.1 IAH +1.9 DEN -1.1 PHX -0.3 SEA +0.7

2 hour pressure change maps have the center south of NJ currently. Is this further south than what was modeled?

0.6" total for here. Mostly ice pellets.

0.6" is the total here of a combination of snow and sleet (mostly ice pellets).

31/14 here with clear skies. We'll see if we can drop a few more degrees before the clouds come in. Nice AFD from Upton, FXUS61 KOKX 100004 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 704 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Deep low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region as an attendant warm front approaches from our south tonight. The warm front moves just over or south of the coast Sunday, followed by a cold frontal passage Sunday evening. Canadian high pressure will then slowly build from the west into the mid week. A frontal system will impact the region late Thursday into Friday. High pressure will then build into the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Have made some tweaks in the near term based on observations and trends. Have high clouds coming into western sections just a touch more than previous update. Overall though, the trend appears to be slower as latest HRRR and RAP have precip arriving a good 3 hours later. Have adjusted start time back a bit for late tonight and Sunday morning. Extreme eastern areas may not see much precip until around 11 or 12z. Also adjusted near term temps and winds to better fit early evening observations. Skies initially remain clear across the area into the evening as dry air from a departing deep layer ridge slowly begins to modify. Winds will be light at first, which combined with clear skies, particularly across eastern areas, may lead to favorable radiational cooling, with low temperatures likely occurring early. Thereafter, a non-diurnal trend occurs as a warm front approaches the area and cloud cover rapidly increases as a deep low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. Expect temperatures to gradually increase through the remainder of the night. Winter headlines remain unchanged. Expect a wintry mix across the interior. Snow accumulations will occur at onset. Trended towards WPC forecasts with regard to forecast amounts, which is more in line with the SREF ensembles on the lower end of predicted amounts. Initially the antecedent dry air mass will take some time to saturate, and some degree of ridging aloft and subsidence will still be over the region. As the night progresses, warm advection will aid in lowering snow ratios, with sleet eventually mixing in as a 925-700 mb low level jet strengthens. The potential for heavier snowfall is limited to a short amount of time, so higher end ensemble amounts upward of 3-4 inches may be difficult to achieve. Thereafter with strengthening warm advection, there will be a period with sleet and freezing rain across the interior, while coastal areas quickly transition to rain. As deep layer forcing for ascent increases with the short wave passing to the north and the warm front approaching, there is potential for moderate rain to occur into the morning. All areas then become rain by afternoon, with rates quickly decreasing as dry air aloft advects into the region. Some lingering drizzle may be possible until the cold front passes through. High temperatures will be closer to climatological normals. &&

I measured the same way and came up with 5.1"

32/30 here with moderate snow now. 1/2" accumulated on grassy surfaces, now accumulating on road surfaces. Sticking to branches like glue. Could be an issue later on trees/power lines later with the heavier snow rates if they come to fruition.