hudsonvalley21

DCA: +2.4 NYC: +2.6 BOS: +2.1 ORD: +0.5 ATL: +1.5  IAH: +1.2 DEN: +1.6 PHX: +1.1 SEA: +1.0

Might wind up having a lackluster fall foliage this year locally.

40 for a low here. Forecast high is for 72 today. At 1 pm sitting at 64. Might bust on the low side today. As for rain totals, 0.43 for the month so far. Ground is rock hard and some leaves are falling from lack of water.

Mesoscale Discussion 1924 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Central/Eastern NY...VT...NH...Western ME...MA...CT...and Far Northeast PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041519Z - 041715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated over the next several hours. Damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat but a couple tornadoes are also possible. A watch will eventually be needed for portions of the region. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from SLK (in far northern NY) southwestward across central NY to just east of BFD (in far north-central PA). Radar trends have shown gradually increasing intensity of the cells along the front in south-central NY as they move into a diurnally destabilizing and modestly buoyant air mass downstream. Ongoing moisture advection has lead to an 2-4 degree increase in dewpoints downstream across the Hudson Valley and this general trends is expected to continue, leading to air-mass destabilization ahead of the front as far north as northeast NY, VT, NH, and western ME. At the same time, strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving into the Northeast will augment the frontal forcing already occurring. The combination of this increased forcing for ascent and air-mass destabilization is expected to result in expanding thunderstorm coverage over the next few hours. Even with the modest buoyancy, strong vertical shear will provide a kinematic environment supportive of organized storms. Primary threat will be damaging wind gusts associated with bowing line segments. However, given the southerly flow across southeastern NY and southern New England, some tornado threat also exists, especially with any more discrete cells ahead of the front. A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon, particularly over eastern NY and New England.

DCA: +1.6 NYC: +1.7 BOS: +2.2 ORD: +0.2 ATL: +1.4 IAH: +1.2 DEN: +0.4 PHX: +1.2 SEA: +2.1

Had .64 last night in a little over an hour and .59 tonight in about 2 hours. Well needed absorbed rain here but without your unfortunate washout rate. Enjoy your time down there.

That's a bummer and another complication. Seems like the best option is to go thru the proper channels.

Agree with you on contacting the DEC first. They might have some kind of funding that can be applied from past storms or super clean ups . It's easy to say cut the tree down and you can't put it back up (as an example). You can't risk doing it under the radar and pissing off someone up or down stream and them calling in the DEC. You could be slapped with a bunch of fines and legal headaches.

I wonder if ponds that are dreged out, if the DEC has to give approval or if costly permits have to be obtained. The Legoland construction in Goshen has been halted and fines issued a few times.

Great to hear! Best of luck and God bless. Joyful time for you and your new bride and your family too! P.s. Don't let her tell you how to use the snowboard and measuring techniques.

Line came thru here. Not much fanfare. Few wind gusts around 25 and a few rumbles. .19 in the bucket.

Agree with you. I was fringed with the last 2 events and picked up a total of 0.05 for both. As of noon were still under a good cloud cover. Hope it burns off to create some instability.

It was tracking along 84 and folks along and to the north were in the heavy action. I was fringed again and picked up 0.04

Definitely fringed here. 0.07 in the bucket.

0.25 for the day.

You rarely see Orange County mentioned in SPC,s meso discussion. Watch hoisted till 9pm tonight. Mesoscale Discussion 1621 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 1621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the northern NJ...southern NY and much of New Enlgand Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311639Z - 311745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the next couple of hours and shift northeast across the Northeast U.S. These storms will pose a threat from strong, locally damaging winds, and a watch may be needed in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Strong heating ahead of a surface cold front was apparent in 16z observations from the mid-Atlantic into New England where temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s were already being reported. Southwesterly low level flow is maintaining a very moist boundary layer, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The net result is a corridor of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the region. An MCV was noted in radar loops, approaching Albany NY as of 1620z. Thunderstorms were beginning to intensify on the southern flank of this feature across Ulster and Orange counties in NY, and Sussex county in NJ. Given the aforementioned downstream environment, continued intensification of these storms is expected. While effective shear remains modest (around 25 kt) some localized enhancement aided by the MCV is possible, and organized line segments capable of mainly strong, locally damaging wind gusts is possible as storms track east/northeast through the afternoon. Additional CU development was noted in visible satellite imagery across portions of CT into RI and MA where the strongest heating has occurred. A surface trough also was apparent in late surface analysis stretching from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity northeast into central ME. Convective initiation could eventually occur from the CU field, which appears to be co-located with the surface trough. Modest deep layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will temper more intense cells. However, high PW values and sufficient instability, combined with steepening low level lapse rates will support multiple bands of storms capable of strong, locally damaging wind gusts. A watch may be needed in the next hour or so across portions of the Northeast. ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/31/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40587281 40427378 40717447 41007472 41497464 41907449 42517378 43397256 44007163 44277105 44317052 44147025 43917020 43347037 42547070 41867098 41477132 41097165 40667253 40587281

DCA: +1.6 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +1.9 ORD: +0.4 ATL: +1.2 IAH: +1.3 DEN: -0.2 PHX: +0.8 SEA: +1.8

3.16 event total thru 8am this morning. A few more showers still possible today.

0.54 overnight and thru 8am this morning bringing the event total to 3.16.

2.62 in the bucket today as of 9:45pm. Still light rain falling. Radar looks good for some more on and off showers thru the overnight.

1.74 here so far at 6:15pm. PWATS are around 2.0 in the area. Still a couple of hours of rain yet to come. Currently 27 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.

The way the radar is looking currently, we should get some decent rains for the next few hours. Up to 1.02 so far. Orange County is under a flood warning till 8 pm. PWATS is currently at 2.0 for are area.

Same here with the first line that came thru. 0.73 in the bucket so far.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 141 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 PAZ048-221830- Pike PA- 141 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...PIKE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT... At 138 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Pecks Pond, or 13 miles west of Montague, moving east at 25 mph. Strong wind gusts will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Port Jervis, Bushkill, Shohola, Matamoras, Milford, Greeley, Pecks Pond, Dingmans Ferry, Millrift and Twin Lakes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. &&

Oh yea. Hoping for some beneficial rains. Nice activity out by Port Jervis, hope it slides right along 84