hudsonvalley21

The layer of ice on the snow is pretty thick and will be carrying this 1-2" of rain with tonights event to low lying areas without draining into the ground. I went out and punched some holes in the ice in the yard to have some of the rain being absorbed into the snow under the ice. Also chopped some ice off the roofline to have the rain stay in the gutters instead of running over. Then back to below freezing Thursday night.

Down to 11 here.

The brain says go and the body says no. Take it slow and in a little more time you will be back.

Holding off cleaning up till this current wave moves thru. Looks like the back edge move thru in a couple of hours

Moderate ZR now 26/26. Had 2" inches of snow which has compacted down. 1/4 on top.

21/19 here with 2" OTG

21/19 here with 2"OTG.

22/20 here 1" OTG. Looking at Uptons AFD, they mentioned that the nam has 3-4" of QPF just to the east of NYC. that could be a real mess up here if our surface temperature stays below freezing. NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain/Snow line right along the south shore of NYC and Long Island and will steadily progress northward this evening. 00Z NAM continues to support rapid changeover from south to north tonight. There will likely be adjustments to advisories/warnings through the night as the warmer air works across the region and a strong southerly low-level jet works northward from the Mid Atlantic states. East flow already pushing dew points to around 30 across coastal locations, a clear sign of a warming boundary layer. HiRes models keep most coastal locations above freezing with the exception of the Connecticut coast which may briefly drop to around freezing with the onset of steadier precipitation. Consensus track is right over or just east of the NYC metro by Sunday, which will likely draw the coastal front northward up into CT. The question is how far north does the low-level warm air get across the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior SW CT. There is no question of a snow to rain transition across the entire area with pronounced warming aloft, but rather does a enough low-level cold air stay in place for a prolonged period of freezing rain across the interior. Once a changeover occurs to rain, it will be heavy, thus the flash flood watch for coastal and urban areas. This in collaboration with surrounding offices. Some elevated instability could result in heavier rain in the morning due to convection. 18Z NAM has shifted heavy rain axis as far west as NYC with 3 to 4 inches of rain. This is due to a feed of subtropical moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, especially along the coast. May need to expand flash flood watch across interior portions of CT. Temps tonight rise from SE to NW overnight, and are based on higher resolution guidance. Temps likely remain below 32 across far interior NW zones. Then as expected, temps plummet Sunday afternoon as frigid air rushes in behind this storm. The bulk of the precipitation winds down, but any lingering precip could change back to a mix.

1" OTG so far. Temp and Dewpt continues to drop. 22/20.

Light snow for an hour now. 1/3" down. 25/25

Light snow for an hour now. Only 1/3" down. 25/25

It appears the nam is showing a little more on the backend Sunday morning vs the 12z run.

The 1024 and the 1022 lines shifted further south on the 18z run.

That's more bullish than the nam. Hope their forecast verifies for their sake. I'm thinking along with your thoughts too.

.36742. Just had the micrometer recalibrated.

Clown map

I guess they bumped the snow totals up a little. The WSW posted before had a general amount of 6-10" for Orange and Putnam counties. My point and click forecast for MBY has a total of 5-11'. It will be interesting too see the 00z runs tonight after the west coast system has been better sampled.

Never change

That's because you look so young

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 331 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 NYZ067-068-181100- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.190119T1700Z-190120T2300Z/ Orange-Putnam- 331 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth to a quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Orange and Putnam Counties. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Strong wind gusts Sunday afternoon into the night could bring down tree limbs and power lines. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Agree, I would wait till the 12z runs tomorrow for tweaking, that would get a real good sampling of the position and strength of the high and the system currently on the west coast. Nice map, past history is always a factor especially with the CAD.

I'm thinking they are considering mixing issues. But haven't put it in their forecast.