0.36 in the Davis so far today up this way. Nice AFD from Upton, a section below;
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm front in close proximity to the NYC metro and this will be
key this afternoon as a frontal wave approaches from the west.
The 06Z NAM NEST and latest HRRR continue to keep showers
across the area for much of the day with the potential for
strong/severe convection around the NYC/NJ metro in the 18Z to
22Z timeframe. Conditions are favorable at the very least for
some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding (see below).
Weak low pressure over central PA rides along the stationary
front located near the NYC metro, and passes over the area this
afternoon into this evening. Synoptic scale setup supports
moderate to heavy rain, with H8 frontogenesis and weak elevated
instability in the cool sector north of the front across the
interior especially from the lower Hudson Valley into SW CT, an
upper level jet streak over southern CT possibly enhancing lift,
also via sfc-based instability in the warm sector or very close
to NE NJ and the NYC metro area. With WSW mid level flow 35-40
kt a few storms from NYC metro south/west could produce strong
to locally severe wind gusts, as well as produce locally heavy
rain as PW increases to near 2 inches.
Some CAM`s and also the ECMWF are forecasting bands of heavy
rain to the tune of 2-4 inches across the interior. Previous
waves of low pressure have not lived up to model QPF
expectations, so think this is overdone and have played the
forecast more conservatively than otherwise might be the case
for the time being. Given the more favorable larger scale
factors coming into play this afternoon, this situation might be
different, and it is still possible that a short fused flash
flood watch may become necessary for parts of the area for this
afternoon/evening.