hudsonvalley21

24/23 here with a light mixture of IP and ZR

Thanks, doubt it too, currently 22/21. Shoveling the IP is like shoveling sand.

21 degrees here with some light sleet. What's your thoughts Walt on us folks along the 84 corridor getting to around freezing especially after midnight when the precip over central Pennsylvania works thru?

20/19 with sleet that has lightened up in intensity. Cold surface temps hanging on. Only went up 2 degrees in the last 4 hours. Had 2.7" of snow before the flip to sleet.

18/15. Moderate snow. 1" OTG. Dewpt jumped 6 in the last hour.

19/9 moderate snow now. Small flakes. Snow started about 1/2 hour ago.

19/9 here near KSWF. moderate snow quick dusting down.

Currently 19/7 here. Cloudy. Temps busted on the low side. Forecast low was 23.

Hope so too. If not, I hope the surface temperatures are right around 32 so the icing won't be as bad.

Dewpt dropped from 18 to 14 at KSWF the last hour. edit. And 18 to 13 at KMGJ the last hour.

Currently 27/18 here with party cloudy skies. Forecast low is 23 here. We could hit that pretty soon. It could be tough to scour out the CAD tomorrow and make for a icy day up this way.

Down to 27 already. Broken clouds currently, forecast low of 23 overnight. We'll see how low we go. It will be tough to scour out the cold surface temps, could get icy. If not that, some accumulating sleet.

With that possible strong SW flow at that layer. Would that be enough to scour out the CAD at the surface or would that increase the possibility of having a longer period of ZR on this sounding?

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 341 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 NJZ002-NYZ067-111000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.190212T0800Z-190213T1100Z/ Western Passaic-Orange- 341 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, Orange County. * WHEN...From late Monday night through late Tuesday night.

I got 4.4" here in Orange County

Yup its holding serve. If it was to verify, it would be a mess for some areas. It will be interesting to see the future runs indeed.

It seems like they are being a little bullish for my area. In my point and click forecast, they have 3-7" of snow and sleet before changing to rain for the 2nd event Tuesday.

Time to put the salt down.

We'll see how it pans out. Still a couple of days for some wiggles in the forecasts. In events with a front end thump, it usually comes down to nowcasting for the area.

Uptons thoughts. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Focus of attention this period will be at the very onset as the first in a series of southern branch storm systems impact the region. The first of which poses a winter weather hazard as a strong polar high (1040mb) passes to the north across eastern Canada and the northeast allowing cold air to dam east of the Appalachians. The global models have warmed a bit faster in the low levels the last 24 hours and this is supported by a strong elevated warm nose with the NAM and SREF. The latter of which often can be too aggressive with the warm aloft. Accounting for this uncertainty and precipitation developing toward daybreak, still raises the potential for a quick hitting 1-3 inches of snow/sleet at the coast before going over to rain in the afternoon. Across the interior, the transition will be later with 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet and a tenth or two of ice accretion possible. The highest amounts at this time will be across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northern portions of Fairfield and New haven counties in CT. Additionally, the location of the frontal wave that develops to the south will be critical in determining the direction of the low-level winds. A significant ice accretion is possible across the interior, however, model soundings are supporting a prolonged period sleet with a transition over to plain rain across most locations as temperatures gradually rise above the freezing mark Tuesday evening. Regardless, based on the parent low being across the Great Lakes, warm air will come in aloft for a transition to rain. Secondary low development occurs much too late and close to the region for this not to happen. The greatest uncertainty with this forecast reside on the front end and how quickly the transition to rain occurs. Small timing differences could have a significant impact on snow/ice totals.

And the 06z GFS

-3 for the low here.