hudsonvalley21

Mesoscale Discussion 1568 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 1568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Areas affected...southern New England southwest to northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221711Z - 221845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk -- mainly in the form of locally damaging winds -- will increase over the next new hours across southern New England and the mid-Atlantic region. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be required. DISCUSSION...Despite modest lapse rates aloft, daytime heating of a moist warm-sector (east of the advancing cold front crossing western PA and south of a warm front lying from northern PA to southern New England) is allowing gradual airmass destabilization to occur. Latest visible imagery continues to reveal cu/cb development, within the zone of clearing (per visible imagery) east of the higher terrain. With continued heating/destabilization, and a gradual increase in southwesterly mid-level flow across the region ahead of the advancing upper trough, the environment will become increasingly supportive of organized storms. Attendant risk for locally damaging winds will accompany stronger multicell/transient supercell storms, with this risk expected to become sufficient to warrant WW issuance within the next hour. ..Goss/Guyer.. 07/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... RNK... LAT...LON 42027265 41767146 40977189 40377395 39517467 37847631 37547877 38047943 40407734 41677415 42027265

I picked up 0.09 out of that one.

Love this section from Upton's AFD. Nice explanation of capped. Expecting mostly dry weather today but mesoscale models depict a departure from this picture with isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Model soundings still appear to be capped in the mid to upper levels and with 500mb heights still mostly near and slightly above 590dm, only went with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The POPs reach near 20 percent, timed to when a subtle shortwave with positive vorticity advection approaches closer to the region. In addition, with all the heat, the instability will be very high as well, with surface CAPE potentially reaching 2500 to 4000 J/kg. So any less cap aloft and any more forcing aloft, could easily generate a quick shower or thunderstorm given the highly buoyant air.

0.23 here for the day.

The earthworms are spitting out dust. They will be jumping on tumbleweeds and heading out of town this weekend.

Jackpot today, just missed out on matching the monthly total. 0.21 in the bucket now up to 0.43 for the month

Same here too. Ground is rock hard now, gave up watering the lawn a week ago. Just watering the flowers and garden. With the upcoming torch this weekend, it would be senseless to water the lawn. Also not many trees to provide shade. Rain total for the month so far here is a whopping 0.22 in the Davis.

How many fireflies for philly.

If you woke up in the middle of that night to go number one, you didn't have to turn the light on.

Most I've seen in a few years.

0.04 in the Davis up this way today. Just to the north of the heavy activity.

0.04 in the bucket today, not even enough to fill those cracks up. now a flash flood warning in extreme southern orange and rockland counties.

Hate to boast,I got double that amount. So we're not just the snowhole. Grass is starting to brown out in spots.

Sorry to be a wize arse, but did the driver of the SUV get swept away? Just had to too

I picked up my Davis 6250 vantage vue in the fall of 2015. I shouldn't talk now but haven't had any issues. Just changed the batteries every fall. I see the price now is 299 on Amazon. It's actually a few bucks cheaper than when I bought it.

1.47 is the total here. Forecast is sunny and 80 for Sunday down in flushing. Hope it holds true for you

1.24 in the bucket so far today.

Light rain here for the last 1 1/2 hours. 0.12 in the bucket.

Happy birthday ! hope you have a great one.

1.21 in the bucket yesterday and 0.20 so far today. Just for insults, last years high/low for this day Newburgh had 73/55. Currently 45 degrees.

Hopefully you will get a few hours between the areas of rain today. Enjoy!

Enjoy the weekend

Are you sure it's not Bud light? Oh well, rain hat looks good.

Just added another 0.20 in the bucket with the line of showers that moved thru. Total of 0.71 since midnight.