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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    I agree that temps would be an issue, but I think it's possible (although perhaps unlikely) that rates would win out. Temps fall to just below freezing in the heaviest bands in Greensboro. I could see Raleigh falling into the 33-34 range given heavy enough precip, if that band can manage to hold together past the Triad It's a long shot, but my main point is that it's a small step in the right direction for those of us in the Piedmont, towards some fun nowcasting
  3. olafminesaw
    That's round two. Don't feel like posting from my phone, but for the main event a sizeable improvement, bringing the energy south. One more shift and Raleigh would be in business. Looking decent up this way for a sloppy inch.
  4. olafminesaw
    Not bad in this neck of the woods. Models finally converging
  5. olafminesaw
    Kinda feels like we're being presented with 17 different ways to fail and then, the GFS, which shows us getting fringed and DC pummeled...Climo is fun
  6. olafminesaw
    Surface temps marginal to say the least in the Euro. Radically different than last run at H5, but hard to say it's a step towards the GFS. Just a different solution entirely. I don't think the Euro was terribly far from a solid event
  7. olafminesaw
    Euro doesn't look too bad honestly. Way different look than the GFS. But better phasing
  8. olafminesaw
    UKMET is super weak. Hardly any phasing.
  9. olafminesaw
    The HP is too far North, which allows the storm to escape to our North before phasing and crushing New England
  10. olafminesaw
    Overall, a slight positive trend I think
  11. olafminesaw
    Yep, maybe not as impressive with the dynamics, but that's a tradeoff I think I'd take. Better to not have to rely on rates. Not a huge shift anyway.
  12. olafminesaw
    Just don't know what would happen there. Looks completely different with the evolution
  13. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I was just going to mention. Seems really far south with the energy
  14. olafminesaw
    I think not nearly as good as the GFS, but a little better than the Euro. I think a big key feature is the blocking high to the north. The GFS is pretty well positioned and strong, while the NAM/Euro/Icon are weaker and too far West
  15. olafminesaw
    12z Icon looks Euro-like
  16. olafminesaw
    Vs the Euro which has a long way to go
  17. olafminesaw
    I agree, it's not so much ground temps I'm concerned about as getting the front to move through quick enough before the moisture arrives. Gotta watch trends here, if we can move it south and stronger, we're in business
  18. olafminesaw
    Hmmm, highs in the 60s the day before? Cold chasing moisture? What could go wrong?
  19. olafminesaw
    Hmm...so close but so far
  20. olafminesaw
    Still...gotta watch the initial disturbance, clipper thingy. Could drop a sneaky few inches somewhere. Currently favors to our North, but with the suppression trend, could work out around here
  21. olafminesaw
    Stays positively tilted and holds back the energy. Not a great run (brokenrecord.jpg)
  22. olafminesaw
    Hey I gotta cover for eyewall, lol I do feel a dusting-2" is a plausible outcome for the piedmont. It's our bread and butter anyway.
  23. olafminesaw
    I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.
  24. olafminesaw
    Big shifts
  25. olafminesaw
    Flow too fast, waves too flat. Feel like this will continue through the rest of the winter
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