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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies control.....
  2. Carvers Gap
    Will be very interesting to see the Euro Weeklies tonight at the EPS is out on a limb with its 0z look after d14. It could score the coup, but not a lot of support for that look right now from other global models. My guess is there is more of a trough in the East. There is one tucked under a monster NAO, but the EPS is trying to connect a ridge into the eastern lower 48. That "could" happen but seems unlikely. It and the GEFS will have to be watched for a GOA low. If you watch the 0z EPS side-by-side, you can see it correct eastward with a system just prior to 330. Now, since we know that is a bias...it can still be used and lines up nicely when that "golf handicap" is applied. That said, I think this bias in the LR is going to cause problems on the Weeklies as the are derived from the 0z run. All of that said, the EPS is a great example of how the NAO is muting a very bad Pacific set-up. If we could get the Pac on board, we would likely see a memorable pattern if the NAO were to hold. The 0z GEPS is quite close to that...GEFS is a nice compromise between the GEPS and EPS.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Found this to be a really interesting Tweet(saw this in the MA forum)...
  4. Carvers Gap
    MRX has released a hazardous wx outlook for two events, freezing fog this morning and the storm which we are tracking on Christmas Eve. Here is the morning disco... A trough will be dropping SE out of the Canadian Rockies to the northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, and deepen as a strong jet moves around the base of it. A dual jet structure develops on Wednesday night with a streak over KY/OH and another aligned W-E across the deep South, which produces strong upper divergence and QG forcing over our area in the 09-15Z Thu time frame. Heavy rainfall may be a concern during this time. Another concern will be how quickly cold air moves in behind the frontogenesis zone and whether it will happen quickly enough for a change to snow before moisture and deep lift exit. The forecast will have some changeover to snow only in the mountains Thursday morning. With strong cold advection through the day, temperatures will be falling through the afternoon. Precip chances will also be falling as drier air aloft builds in, but with steepening lapse rates, some scattered rain or snow showers will be possible. The upper trough axis will move over the area Thursday night, bringing extremely cold air aloft that will further steepen lapse rates and increase the coverage of snow showers in the evening, continuing into Friday. GEFS shows an 850 mb temperature anomaly that is 20 degrees below normal, so highs on Friday are only expected to be in the 20s for northern sections, with lower 30s central and south and possibly in the teens in the mountains. A 30 kt W-NW 850 mb flow will enhance snow accumulations in the higher elevations of East TN and SW VA. The coverage of snow showers will gradually taper off Friday night as the upper trough axis allows for some stabilization. Snow accumulations at this time continue to be uncertain, but given the extremely cold air mass and steep lapse rates, some snow showers are possible across the entire area, mainly Thursday night. Highest chances for an inch or more accumulation will be in the mountains, SW VA, and NE TN. As mentioned above, an earlier onset of cold air while precip rates are high on Thursday morning could result in greater accumulations.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Overall, I feel like the precip was further out in front of the actual cold air. Was super close to a cold chasing rain event. That said, I think the lift once this system hits the Plateau may give the backside of this a chance to change over to snow. Very similar run to 18z. Also, very good chance the Euro is dragging its heels a bit. See you all tomorrow.
  6. Carvers Gap
    At 90, cold air is lagging behind the precip band compared to 18z.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Out to 84, looks like convection over Louisiana is cutting off some of the moisture transport northward. Likely is a result of a much more organized low over the GL area.
  8. Carvers Gap
    At 78, the GL low is at 986 compared to 993 at 18z. Front is a tad quicker and more robust as it enters western TN.
  9. Carvers Gap
    At 72, the low in the GL area is 3mb deeper than 18z.
  10. Carvers Gap
    At 66, the system/front coming out of the NW looks slightly more compact and organized at 500
  11. Carvers Gap
    Through 51, again just a tick quicker. Will be interesting to see what if any impact it has down stream.
  12. Carvers Gap
    At 42, the Euro looks slightly quicker but otherwise pretty much the same one 500 vort maps.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Will be interesting to see if this trends stronger. A powerful front like this "should" have the potential to tap the GOM and form a low. The front is moving so fast, it might limit slp formation until it gets past our latitude though...
  14. Carvers Gap
    That'll do right there. And yeah, the CMC almost went to a weak Miller A. Weak impulse moved from GC states up through the Piedmont. As MRX noted, with such a strong front, climatology supports the genesis of a slp along that front.
  15. Carvers Gap
    What site do you use for the UKMET? I can see it on the MeteoCentre website. Increments are too far apart for me to make any kind of inferences.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Today's GEFS extended 35 day snow totals below. Also, take a look at the 18z CFSv2. It(CFSv2) bounces around quite a bit, but nice run for January. Anyway, the GEFS extended has snow all of the way to the Gulf Coast. I think that means a trace(or more) of snow would fall in all of the lower 48 by late January. If the advertised pattern verifies, there is a chance this has some merit. Huge grain of salt though as always at this range! Also, I do like this as it gives a good idea of where the storm tracks might be.....
  17. Carvers Gap
    I will politely leave that to John - I may chime in if it is good. He has been doing a great job for the past few nights and has brought the good mojo. Since, I don't have to handle virtual school duties tomorrow, I may try to stay up - but I am out of shape(meaning I am not used to late night model shenanigans!). @Holston_River_Rambler, has the UKMET run yet?
  18. Carvers Gap
    All right, what time does the Euro begin to roll?
  19. Carvers Gap
    I really don't like seeing the global models(admittedly at range) not on board at all - in some cases not even a flake. However, the GEFS ensemble held steady if not upped its amounts just a bit. Need to see those short range models make a move at some point(other than just a frontal passage).
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I would say the 0z CMC hopped on this shaky bandwagon.
  21. Carvers Gap
    CMC has a fairly significant uptick of snow west of the Apps.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Was talking about the Dandridge dollop and the Chattanooga 84 year Christmas snow drought comments. And yeah, as I have said for days...low confidence.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Pretty epic first page for a storm thread. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Well, it surely looks like it is going to be ridiculously cold. LOL
  25. Carvers Gap
    MRX with an excellent write-up... The most uncertain part of the extended forecast will be the potential for snow across portions of the forecast area. Again as noted previously, there remains large disagreement with regards to how quick the cold front moves through the area, and how quickly the cold air is able to move into the region. The more progressive GFS suggests most of the precipitation will be out of the area by Thursday morning with snow showers from northwest flow aloft into Thursday night. The ECMWF and CMC are slower with a frontal passage late Thursday, but have trended a bit quicker than previous runs. Previous runs of the ECMWF depicted wrap around moisture and precipitation but the 12Z runs have backed off on this solution, and are in good agreement with the 12Z CMC. Climatologically speaking, such a deep trough should promote surface cyclogenesis somewhere across the southeast or mid Atlantic during this time. The 20.00 and 20.12 suite of guidance is suggestive of this solution but again there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding where this low sets up and how strong the low will be. All of this will play an integral role in how much moisture will be left over for potential wintry precipitation. The official forecast as of this afternoon suggests temperatures will fall behind the front late Thursday and into Thursday night. Rain will change over to snow from west to east late Thursday with light snow showers or flurries lingering across northern portions of the forecast area through Friday. It is still too early to forecast snow amounts with any amount of certainty. What is more certain is that temperatures will plummet behind the front with deep troughing expected. Temperatures as much as 10-20 degrees below average is a good probability at this point. An increasing pressure gradient immediately behind the front will create gusty gradient winds across most of the area. These winds will obviously bring cold wind chills to the area Friday morning and Saturday morning. Surface high pressure settles into the region Saturday and into Sunday with building heights as a ridge builds into the plains. Temperatures will begin to slightly moderate with this building ridge but will continue to be below climatology.
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