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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 18z Euro(left) compared to the 12z Euro(right). Very similar look w/ may a slightly slower and very slightly westward track. The 18z Euro would have likely hammered E TN. Accumulation maps stop right before it swings by and right as it deepens. Notice the 18z Euro is much strong...991 vs 995. Right now we are seeing a ramp up of intensity on modeling. Here is the 18z GEFS(left) compared to the 12z GEFS(right).
  2. Carvers Gap
    The good thing is that cold air is in play. It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary. What could go wrong? The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good. The eastern trend has me a bit wary. But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I know. LOL. That track(12z GFS/Euro) is the historical gold standard for E TN winter storms. Whether it verifies or not remains to be seen. Nailing down a track this winter for a good storm in E TN has proven to be a tough task!
  4. Carvers Gap
    So the 12z scoreboard is a Miller A inland runner on all three global models - varying strength and low placement. The CMC likely has some energy handoff while the Euro and GFS are basically clean passes. Strength and slp placement, as always, TBD. I am wary after so many looks like this during the past winter which went poof! Will wait for some continuity for future runs, but for now...track is the key.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Here are Kuchera accumulations and also comparison of surface low placements. Be sure to remember the new run is on the left. The 0z run is on the right. Track is pretty much my only concern at this point. The CMC, GFS, and Euro are very similar w/ varying degrees of intensity. Biggest concern is that this trends too far to the East at this point. Heaviest snow axis at 12z is from the Cumberlands to the Smokies.
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is again a clean pass which is an inland runner.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z run from the Euro is a great look!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Watching the 12z Euro run...so far very similar to the 0z but slightly SE and maybe a hair quicker.
  9. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Very true. Temps in the 70s have sent the board into hibernation. If future runs hold, it will get hoppin'.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Did that drop 6 feet in southern Canada? Is that the same storm?
  11. Carvers Gap
    @tnweathernutmentioned how rapidly it deepens. Take a look at what it does in 18 hours from the time it leaves central Georgia. Impressive.
  12. Carvers Gap
    No idea if that run is correct as the GFS can over-amp things, but that would likely produce thunder snow with those rates.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Boom. Big run.
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is looking good at 90. Clean pass.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Solid look on the 18z GFS ensemble as well.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Great look. Low cuts through E TN...secondary pops to our east and moves slowly enough to allow the remaining moisture to thump even parts of E TN.
  17. Carvers Gap
    If this is there at 12z tomorrow, probably time to start a thread. The 18z would be pretty epic for middle/west TN...and E TN still gets in on the action.
  18. Carvers Gap
    This could trend totally to the SE and slip by...so be warned. The Euro trending back this way is a good sign. Here is the clown map for the 12z GFS.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Super similar set-up IMHO. Models seem to be trending a bit SE. A cutter west of the Apps or some sort of energy transfer to the coastal plain are possible. Let's see if trends continue overnight. If totals increase again tomorrow, modeling may be on to something.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The snow axis is trending a bit to the SE. Really, the overall synoptics look good for much of the forum area. I am wondering if we actually see a clean pass to the south with this.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro follows suit with a pretty good thump for much of the forum area....actually a major winter storm for many.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Both the GFS and CMC are pretty clean phases on the 12th. @Math/Met, I see you lurking. Man, the wind is HOWLING here in Kingsport. Any mountain wave stuff reported in your neck of the woods?
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is more robust with the system this weekend as well.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That is a pretty good look on the 12z GFS. It is slightly more progressive and a bit more of a clean pass for the eastern areas. The 12z ICON is what you want in middle and western forum areas. Modeling seems to be keeping this area in the cone for wintry precip this weekend.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS and 0z Euro have very similar solutions with an area of slp popping east of the Apps. We have been playing this game all winter. The million dollar question is where does that low form? For now, we are loosely tracking late season, winter storm potential for both the lower and higher elevations.
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