Carvers Gap

@Holston_River_Rambler, are you able to make a gif of the track or precip shield(like you did for 12z) for the 18z run?

18z Euro was a textbook track...couldn't draw it up better.

The heavier looks for the eastern valley...some are just some monsters.

March storms are just notoriously difficult to nail down. The book on this won't be closed until Friday at 0z - if then. Just because most of us are in this thread...the 18z GFS is just one bowling ball after another.

I was laughing, because if I speak in an absolute...I will certainly be wrong. Yes, I think that sounds about right. Not sure about ratios, but I think it possible that the cold charges in more quickly. Best case is modeling holds/consolidates the track from 12z and then ups totals as they begin to see the system. A GOM system to inside Hatteras could be pretty strong. Strung out could cause thermal profile issues.

I look at track. Once that gets relatively nailed down, then time to wait and see if modeling begins to up totals like some March storms can do from time to time. March storms can sometimes verify stronger than modeled. Time will tell.

This is a battle between a very strong cold front and a storm that will want to pull north along that front. To me, it looks like the front is pushing and forcing the storm just a hair eastward at 12z. That allows for a hair less organization. I will have to look at the norms, but this might be the strongest front relative to norms IMBY. Remember, in NE TN many of these fronts got hung up before getting here.

Correct - maybe. LOL

Could be power issues if the totals are legit.

Hard to get much better of a look than this.

Looks like the slp is indeed SE which follows the trend of other 12z modeling. It is also 1mb weaker. Storm is slightly more strung out.

Looks like it has a SE trend as well. I am only out to hour 50 or so. Looks like it may make a clean pass.

AT 57, the gradient is flatter.

12z Euro is rolling. It is following a similar 12z GFS trend of a very slight sharpening of the gradient ahead of the storm at 30.

One further note and just to beat a dead horse... Notice the cold(orange) is moving a bit quicker. Also notice the location of the genesis of the slp. That is pretty much textbook for winter storms in E TN. I make no promises as far as snow, but that is a great location. Also, notice less of a warm-nose into TN. Good trends on both the GFS and its GEFS ensemble below. As @Holston_River_Rambler, that is a jog SE. It may be just a wobble, but we really couldn't have withstood another jog NW in E TN. Trends matter at this stage.

12z GEFS for comparison 12z -> left.....6z -> right Note the cluster of lows is back to being over Upstate-ish SC and not over the eastern slopes of the Smokies. Good trend if you live in E TN, ie would imply less warm nose. The 12z GEFS is trying its best to get a clean pass. It is strung out a bit more as the snow totals are lower due to that. At first glance, I was like, this is trending closer to MBY. Really, I think what this implies is there is less energy transfer to the coastal plain. The SLP simply stays as one and slide up through central NC. Of note, a tertiary slp forms at the base of the departing storm. That cluster has crept a bit closer to the coast. It is probably too late in the process for that to have meaningful impacts here, but keep an eye on that.

The 12z CMC is still on board as well. For now, I think we are looking at 2-4" in the eastern valley with higher amounts(maybe much higher) on the northern Plateau and points in middle TN as well. This is a potent looking system.

Big storms often have bands of sleet. This is certainly showing up on this run.

Heavy sleet mid-Plateau. I think modeling is having a bear trying to figure out where to place the deformation bands. I have seen modeling banking a band of sleet against the Plateau on recent runs. I am trying to figure that out. I have kicked around maybe a slight downsloping effect with surface winds.

One important note, March qpf totals are often notoriously underdone for systems like this. That is something to remember.

Either way, we take this look 10/10 times and run with it....

That is a good trend for those in the eastern valley. We needed the northwest jog stuffs to stop. Any trend the other direction is welcomed. We don't have a lot of wiggle room if the slp moves northwest.

Yep, you are on the money with that.

Not great news, but as expect(from earlier in the run), this is likely going to send a weak area of slp up the eastern valley.