Carvers Gap

Moderate snow in west Kingsport. Temps is 35 and has fallen 17 degrees in about two hours.

Temp has crashed to 36. We have rain/slee/snow coming down. Pretty impressive temp drop. I am on the west end of TRI folks. So the rest of you in this area, it is coming your way.

Sleet mixing in w/ the rain here in Kingsport. Temp is 39F.

Man, you all had a fantastic season. Super glad for you all. Middle TN was LONG overdue for a good one.

Temps here have dropped to 44.2. That is down about 8 degrees in about 45 mins or so, maybe less.

5z HRR is showing a decent little increase.

Tomorrow night....

For posterity....updated w/ middle TN WSWs and blizzard warnings for the Shenandoah mountains.

TRI and Chattanooga trending late. Let's see if that works out. Thanks for the map!

18z GEFS

I told, ya'll the RGEM looked awesome. Fire up the heart attack gif from Sanford and Son for me ! LOL. Kuchera looks insane!

18z RGEM looks really good for TRI peeps.

Check this out! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 353 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 TNZ015>017-042-044-046-VAZ001-005-006-008-120600- /O.UPG.KMRX.WW.Y.0009.220312T0600Z-220312T2200Z/ /O.EXB.KMRX.WS.W.0005.220312T0600Z-220312T2200Z/ Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington TN- Northwest Carter-Lee-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Rose Hill, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 353 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Snow and ice covered roadways are possible, mainly across the secondary roadways, bridges and overpasses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow combined with the blustery winds will greatly reduce visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

WSWs have been hoisted for the NE TN.

This feels like Jan 1-2 where it was so warm and the hammer dropped the next day, and it snowed. What is modeled would fit the seasonal pattern of extreme warmth to frigid. This is like living out West during June!

@AMZ8990, how close are you to that band in west TN that the RGEM is depicting. That could be a good thump!

My "go to" short range model is the RGEM which is basically that one.

If a system is going to bust high, spring is the time. For five years I lived in JC, seemed like many March snows over-performed. Not saying that will happen, but the proximity to the warm waters of the GOM is good. One other thing I meant to mention in relation to the jet streak being tough to model and that causing variations...I do wonder if when the precip is lower if there is convection along the GOM. That will shut off the spigot in a hurry.

Lock that in. That little blue hole over NE TN is my house - no lie. So now, we know that is right. LOL. Man, glad you are posting.

If these have already been posted, my apologies. To me, modeling doesn't seem a lot different than yesterday. The problem is that modeling just can't predict all of the chaotic bands of snow which develop. They may be well having trouble with the jet streak. The slightest difference in that feature may be causing the model swings - just a guess/hypothesis to be tested.

Just check the NMB, and that looks like what MRX is using. It lags by one model run, meaning it uses the blend from the previous suite which was the 0z one. The 12z blend should be higher. Again, that is the right call. It is easy to adjust should models continue those significant adjustments. Plus, it is a Saturday morning when commutes are low.

That said....the 6z runs for TRI, some of them have been huge. Nice trends for NE TN at 6z. Let's see if we can actually hold onto those.

Looks like modeling is bumping up totals at TRI. I am assuming that MRX derived those WSWs from the 0z run. About half of the model runs(during the past 3-4 days) are leaving less snow up this way comparatively to other locals. TRI is on the eastern envelope of the storm totals. Those shifted slightly eastward at 6z. They can easily upgrade or downgrade a WWA...so not a bad call on their part. My guess is they will wait for another suite before thinking about changes. Again, good call as modeling seems to be on-again and off-again. Should the models hold to the bigger totals at 12z, I would think there is potential for an upgrade. Interestingly, I don't think the WSW have verified (generally speaking) in NE TN all winter. So, understandably the winter trend this winter likely makes them skittish - it does me as well.

18z Euro with basically the same look BTW...just the "less precip" look from 12z. Basically, same run with no big changes. Sorry, that earlier post might have sounded like something changed. Not really...

The 18z Euro continues with a strung out look where the front runner low climbs the coast and washes out the pattern behind it and flattens the next, main storm a bit due to lack of separation. I can't find that look on other modeling. It was not on the Euro yesterday at this time. It went OTS.