Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Not sure how this works out at the surface, but the northern stream and the southern stream are pretty much phased by 174
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The 12z GFS may or may not get there around 160, but that is an entirely different look from that model than compared to 6z.
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The ICON picked-up on this look at 12z as well. It may not phase on this run. But there is a piece of the northern stream and southern stream which are interacting a bit.
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News is a little slow today. The GFS still has the marginal event Tuesday. However, around 150, it is showing some promise regarding next weekend. Let's see where it goes.
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Here is the 6z 3k NAM at hour 3....holds there throughout much of the morning and early afternoon.
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Just went and checked some higher res modeling....Interestingly, the WRF-ARW and 3K NAM have some super light precip hanging around in your area this morning. Super faint on the modeling. Looks like it is just yesterday's system moving out. Very cool though!!! Congratulations on the bonus snow.
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That is wild. Wonder if it is just squeezing out moisture from yesterday due to orographic lift or if there is some connection to the incoming storm? The 6z RGEM sneaks some precip into the western foothills this evening.
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@Holston_River_Rambler, take a look at the trend of the system this evening and tonight since the Jan 19th 12z run of the GFS. Center it on hour 24 of the 6z run this morning. It is almost comical how far it has moved northwest. It has moved from a coastal ice storm to a decent even for almost all of North Carolina.
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1. Ensemble modeling overnight actually improved in the LR - colder and less SER on both the 0z CMCand 0z GFS. We may be able to carry seasonal or even BN temps through the first week of February now. For now the GFS carries the most weight for me. IF that is the new pattern on both of those models, we can work with that. 2. Of note, the system that trended SE for tomorrow...the precip shield now makes into the first layer of E TN counties. Shouldn't be much, but wouldn't be surprised to see snow in the air in both the mountains and maybe in the valleys just next to the mountains. While that shouldn't affect most of us, it does show that modeling was likely in error with the far envelope of eastern solutions. Something to tuck away and remember for the next storm. That storm is likely to affect much more of NC than shown a couple of days ago. The NW trend is legit. 3. MRX has released a statement or next Monday night into Tuesday.... For late Monday night through Tuesday night, deterministic models from the GFS and ECMWF are coming in closer agreement in phasing a little better with a northern stream jet moving across the mid- Atlantic states and a southern stream system moving across the Gulf coast states. The surface low remains fairly far south across the northern Gulf. However, enough phasing of the two systems to spread light precipitation into the region. GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble are in agreement with around 0.25 inch or less of QPF for this event especially south and eastern areas. Ensembles also show a light snowfall across much of the region, especially for the higher elevations. The main features of the system that will be watched closely are the following: 1) How much phasing occurs between the northern and southern stream energy. The more phasing the greater the QPF and potential of heavier snowfall amounts, especially higher elevations. 2) Vertical temperature profile/Top-Down precipitation type. Currently, the deterministic models hang onto a boundary layer warm nose limiting snowfall in the valley. 3) Strength of the arctic high building into the plain states. Will add the potential of wintry mix/snowfall within the HWO. For Wednesday and Thursday, surface ridging builds back into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with dry conditions.
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The Euro Weeklies this evening FTR didn't look torchy. Looked cold until roughly Feb 2nd. Then it is kind of off and on warmth after that. Feb looks weakly base warm with some cold extrusions.
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Some bonus snow today for folks.... 18z GFS continues to advertise a pattern with some opportunities. The 12z CMC looked ok as well. Looks like it wold have some clipper opportunities after a week of dry weather. Again, I think as this pattern relaxes later next week, we are going to see some opportunities.....and then February will be cutter city w/ a few that take the low road.
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Yeah, that winter where that low seemed parked in the Lakes was terrible. Wrecked one system after another.... That said, this is more of an interaction (Wednesday) between the northern jet and the STJ. IMHO, that run wasn't a true disruptive low in the Lakes, but more of a weak attempt at a phase. They are just a bit too far apart to phase. But the interaction causes a weak low to lift through the Carolinas. That keeps the thermals in check. It isn't so much a slp just sitting there causing a mess, but two pieces of energy which hit the bottom of the pendulum at the same time. It is that interaction that pulls moisture northward. Without the northern stream feature, there is very little precip at all. As noted before, the jets appear to be in decent sync from Wednesday to Saturday of next week. Storm signal on that GFS run and to some extent the CMC run.
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Wednesday's system is marginal, but we could steal one there. The weekend storm after is what interests me.
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Versus having a low in the Lakes fouling thermals, it is more of an interaction between two jet streams on Wednesday. The CMC misses on that which causes the whiff. Right now with the northern stream dropping energy along and just north of energy from the STJ...basically like striking a match next to gas fumes....may or may not pop, but the potential is there. That interaction on the GFS flattens the ensuing front, and doesn't allow the trough to dig. That allows the mega phase after....
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The 12z GFS, just looking a bit more closely at Wednesday is a near miss at the surface. The reason it snows north of I-40(even with the pesky low in the Lakes) is because a shadow of a slp slips along northeastward through the Carolinas. That keeps the thermal profile in place. Then, it almost phases after that IMHO.
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12z CMC does seem to find the look next weekend, but further eastward. At this range(8-9 days), I am not even worried about the details. Looks like a couple of systems to track at this point with the weekender, being the best shot for those in E TN who haven't had as much snow this winter.
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Then again, the 12z CMC is sliding that high out quickly on Thursday. It may allow a storm to lift northward. I may be wrong on that.
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The Canadian looks like (by it not having the first system on Weds) it is going to press the cold front too far south for anything of significance following that Weds miss. It sounds weird, but those two systems washing out the thermals almost causes the front to stall just enough for cyclogenesis to occur on the GFS. Press that boundary too far, and any ensuing storm is going to the fishes.
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I kind of took that run to be the model struggling to deal with two pieces of energy interacting. What I like is seeing northern stream energy and southern stream energy in sync, even if they miss in latitude. The next two that slide across seem to connect. It may well be that the Wednesday set-up helped set the stage for that second storm.
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We want tracks south of us. Yes. The coastal blizzard modeled for next weekend would likely rake eastern portions of the forum area just verbatim to that run. That said, that look will certainly change. Getting systems below us, and northern stream energy syncing on some model runs is about all we can ask for at this range.
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This is a pretty nice 12z GFS run. What the others were not...this one is.
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Looks like two systems to track loosely next week. That second window(later next weekend) looks like it has more promise. I wouldn't say closing fast, but it is closing. We are about three weeks into this current pattern. Max of three weeks left though I think more likely two weeks. The transition out of this pattern is where I think we can score.
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And man, it just stalls off the coast. Whew! This is why I don't trust the dry looks on modeling. The MJO does not support a completely suppressed pattern. No idea if that is right or even close to it...but that is a really big storm. No way modeling has that nailed down at 200 hours. Could be gone on the next run. That said, modeling is from time-to-time seeing coastal genesis of big lows. Sure, we could get caught between the northern stream sliding stuff to our north and the STJ sliding stuff below us. BUT, if those two every sync...that run is an example of what could happen. Sot, that is two storms next week to watch. One is mid-week and has a marginal temp profile. It actually looks good on WxBell's stuff. Then, there is the weekend storm potential after that.
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Yeah, that is a phaser for sure. Tampa to NYC w/ a northern stream injection of energy and BOOM!
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The 12z GFS is an example of where the retrograding pattern backs those previous OTS tracks into the eastern seaboard. That is a MONSTER of a storm.
