Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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12z Euro has a really good look in terms of slp on Tuesday. The CMC was close, but had a less robust system. Given the Euro's propensity to overdo things of late....prob need to wait on some support for that run. I am really to the point the GFS has to be on board. Has the GFS become the new/temporary "Dr No?"
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12z Euro....At 162, IDK..this may also get the eastern valley.
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Would be mainly for middle and west TN to be clear, but that is a good look.
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12z Euro with another significant winter storm look on Tuesday.
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One other interesting thing....As the trough begins to retrograde back into the West during the last days of Jan and early Feb, all of that out-to-sea(OTS) confluence is going to retrograde inland. If we can time the pattern as things retrograde, we could see 1-2 storms along the coast. That is why I am somewhat interested in the middle of next week and the following weekend. PSU is mentioning that in the MA forum. So, looks like a window that is being watched by a few.
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I really think right now it is not so much a continuous suppressed pattern(this weekend is...) as it is that cold and the STJ are out of sync. If those couple, watch out. Most of the really cold air(which we saw on modeling last week) is not showing up on modeling this week. So, I suspect this forum is going to be on the boundary between rain and snow. Good place to be if we want to see a storm. The bigger problem we have is the "warm up and rain" deal which is a consequence of precip heading north between cold snaps. Need that to get back in sync with cold shots. Looks like that "may" happen by mid-week next week.
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I 100% agree that cold patterns can get quite dry and suppressed. So, point well taken. I think we get back in the game by maybe middle of next week. Looks quiet until then. But who knows, you may get something with this frontal passage TR/FR. I think a pattern change is likely by early February. The question is whether the new pattern will be warm? Looks like ensembles give us roughly 2-3 more weeks of a good pattern. Then the trough flips west. The interesting things is the pattern still stays cool for us through roughly mid-February. Fortunately, this is mid-winter and not December which didn't have established/deep cold and had that crazy block which prevented even the most meager of cold fronts to come eastward. I suspect we may see a more traditional set-up where the Mountain West is cold but it pushes to the Apps, super similar to last winter(maybe Feb as well?). It may be the pattern is a mix of cutters (which press the cold southeast) and then coastal storms. Probably will be base warm, but active IMHO. Yeah, you all have done well on the Plateau. Super jealous! LOL.
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This winter reminds me more and more of a 95-96'(2.0 lighter version). We have a lull right now, but that winter came back after a couple of weeks. Hard not to be excited about the pattern next week. No guarantees. You all know the drill. BUT that is a crap ton of cold air and energy in the pattern starting Tuesday/Wednesday and onward.
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Next week we see the pattern begin to relax a bit. Guessing we see some things to track around that time frame. We aren't going to get them all. Three valid storm threads during the past 16 days is rare air!
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Nah. This isn't Jan 17-18 at all. There have been a ton of storms to track so far this season. That was insanely dry weather back in 17-18. This pattern is nothing like that. The STJ is active. The cold is not as intense which allows storms to track at much higher latitudes. We just don't live at a latitude where it snows every week. The past two weeks have been a great run for many. Heck, IMBY, we probably have had less than most, but it has still been good. I like next week. Tuesday is a time frame to watch. I think this weekend is a whiff. Honestly, the storm doesn't seem to be getting itself together. Maybe that changes, but just seems anemic at this point. So, on to the next one. Tuesday looks like a minor system on the 12z GFS, and maybe something cooking right after that if the 0z Euro is correct. 12z GFS has that late week system as well.
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Trends matter at this point. Modeling didn't exactly slam the door on snow falling in far E TN this weekend. The 6z Euro has it. The 0z CMC has it as does the RGEM. The GFS does not at 6z, but did at 0z. @Math/Met has some good insight above. To me, I can't rule out some light snow in E TN, especially the NE areas. Trends will be important today. If it is going to move, we will need to see that process begin today. Micro move in the right direction last night, but going to need more than that.
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Interestingly, the NAM nailed the NW trend first on the last storm. The long range NAM keeping hope alive!!!
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TRI is now just 0.4F above normal for the month. Considering the first two days were +29 and +17, that is a big turn around. TRI has also received about 4.9" of snow which occurred as part of several nickel-and-dime events. Unless something drastic occurs, TRI has a real chance at finishing the month below normal for temps. How many of us had that in our seasonal forecasts? I sure didn't!!! LOL. But I did get the end of December warm shot correct - woo, yeah(said in a Bueller, Bueller flat tone). It is pretty amazing the work that this forum did in the pre-winter thread that we do during the summer and fall. Lots of great analogs, ENSO discussions, etc. The ENSO thread itself has some great work in it as well. It is a group effort and the body of work is pretty interesting in how well it works through so many scenarios. If you are new to the forum, take some time and go back through that set of posts. Seasonal forecasting(pro or hobby) is IMHO some of the toughest work out there. I don't stay overly tied to the seasonal forecast though. Some pieces are just inevitably going to miss. Chaos is unpredictable for reason. However, some good stuff in there. We might be the smallest subforum, but ya'll produce great content. These storm threads have been a blast to follow. And hey, we are here year round. It is a little slower during the summer, but there is still interesting stuff at times. BTW, early look at the next winter season. Moderate to weak El Nino is possible. Moderat is no beuno. Weak El Nino's which follow La Nina's I believe can be quite good. The SST gradient will be strong around the Nino and give a stronger ENSO signal. I foresee a mean trough over the East through much of the last 2/3 of winter, BUT beware...Nino winters can start late to very late. Summer and fall could well be seasonal, especially late summer. The hangover from La Nina may keep the first part of summer warm. Decembers are often rainy and slighlyt AN. Wonder if we get a flip to cold right around or just after Christmas this time? Maybe we see some snow showers in October this year?
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With so much cold and an active STJ through the end of the month, we really have about two weeks of good snowstorm tracking ahead. They won't all pan out, but some have a good chance to. Looks like the pattern is trying to flip the trough out West for February. This time modeling really likes cold to push for a week or so, even after the flip. The lack of a massive -NAO should allow the cold to push southeast in an MJO 1-3 set-up before finally giving way to a thaw. Would not surprise me at all to see winter make another final comeback after that thaw. Been a decent winter for many. Weak La Nina's can be great patterns. There is now way modeling has each individual storm modeled well. With so much in the pipeline, it is likely a matter of time before one of these connects along the eastern seaboard.
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Interesting to see the 18z RGEM move that much... something to watch.
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Agree on that. Pretty much sums it up.
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For all intents and purposes, all but the Euro connect on something on their 12z runs. The GFS is close to multiple events. The CMC has a monster at 192. Lots of energy running around. As the Euro just showed(not to the good this time), things can change quickly with this much cold and a relatively active STJ.
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I won't stick a fork in this one quite yet with the 12z GEFS surprisingly coming on board. Need to see if the GEFS/EPS ensembles have a western cluster of lows compared to what operationals depict, especially for folks in NE TN. These are sneaky systems in this area. Within the 72-96 range this year, TRI has 3x been moved from significant accumulations to hard-earned back end snow. I would be very surprised with the SER does not fight during the next 10 says. I certainly could happen, but think it likely we connect on one one these.
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Sharpen up a bit(steeper) and/or then have the strength of the front be weaker and/or need the high to be north or further west IMHO. Lots of ways to gain latitude and back the flow. My guess is the SER will fight some. That probably is the key...just get that synoptic feature in place, and the rest takes care of itself.
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That almost looks like the same run with the exception of the 12z from yesterday having thermal issues which it shouldn't. Just have to think this jogs west during the next few days of modeling. Interestingly, the UK wasn't completely wrong with the last system, but it did miss the middle TN snows. Jeff's post above is interesting. Both model biases in play....GFS with a progressive nature for SLPs which take the low road, and the Euro which could be missing finer details. Will just watch trends during the next couple of days. It would seem unlikely that modeling would hold that position for the next five days as the last three storms(even they system Holston shows with his trend gif) have trended well northwest during the final 5-6 days of modeling. It seems like the NW trend halted overnight. It is highly likely that the system rides the front which comes through TR night. I would suspect that front doesn't press as far as originally modeled. Again, something that has occurred for 2-3 seasons in a row. But who knows....interesting look and certainly one to keep an eye on during the next couple of days.
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MRX morning discussion.... Next round of weather looks to possibly be more impactful, but unfortunately at this time there is still some major differences in deterministic models, and ensemble guidance. Models are in somewhat good agreement that there will be a southward diving trough across the plains, and a surface low developing near the northern GoM. Biggest difference in the models (at this point) is how strong and how far south to take the mid level low, either through the Ohio or Tennessee Valley. If the weaker GFS solution verifies, then expect cold, but mostly dry conditions... If the stronger ECMWF solution verifies the low goes more over the Tennessee Valley and precipitation will make it up to the western side of the Southern Appalachians. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing across the area until later in the day on Saturday, so any precipitation that does occur Friday into Saturday will likely be mainly snow. Am not quite yet ready to bite off on the snowier ECMWF solution, as it appears to be under-doing the downsloping that would occur Friday into Friday night if it verifies. Again, still a lot on uncertainty on IF it will even precipitate at all, but it will be worth keeping an eye out on this weekend system as it gets closer.
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LOL. This is heading for Nashville! Last storm had nearly the same trend. Odd that the GFS is not picking it up. I feel mildly better now that the ICON has it.
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Image not found....Must be a GFS storm map for this weekend.
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EPS doubles down....12z and 18z comparison. If the Euro is wrong, it is going to go down swinging.
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So looks the Euro has the nod at that range right now. We take!
