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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    MRX mentions a strong jet streak. We may just have our own forcing. Good point.
  2. Carvers Gap
    18z RGEM drops the HAMMER!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Convection to our south could cut off moisture transport, so that is something to watch as well. @Daniel Boone, are you seeing any evidence that could happen?
  4. Carvers Gap
    I am just going to hug the 12k for MBY. Just a 1.7-9.5" range of accumulations on the NAMs for 18z over TRI. LOL. I will gladly take a blend of the 3k and 12k!
  5. Carvers Gap
    3K NAM says @John1122 is gonna feel like he is living in the Sierra Nevadas with 20" of snow!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Monster run of the NAM incoming. NE TN will like this one. Well, pretty much the entire forum area.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Bumped up at 12z. 2-4” region wide. 18z should be better or even much better. I think @TellicoWxsaid that it is derived from the runs 6 hours earlier. So, 18z should be pulled from the 12z suite. And by the way, where is Tellico? Hope all is good!
  8. Carvers Gap
    This is shaping up to have a very traditional inland runner to Nor'Easter track. The big NE cities are involved at 12z.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is right. I remember that now. @PowellVolz, strike my earlier comment. @John1122is correct. That is the main difference.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Let me check. Seems like generally the 12 suite of global models was a slight tick slower, but now since you ask, I am not sure if the Euro was slower or not. I have looked at so many maps, I can't remember. Did you think it was faster? Overall, tracks(other than the NAM) looked solid.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Plateau looks to be money. John, Shocker, and Co should rack up. I think the Euro is under doing things. NAM might be a bit too juiced. Maybe blend the Euro, RGEM, and GFS and that is probably a good solution.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Starting to see the mountains of NC involved for both the Euro and Canadian runs....meaning we have some wiggle room on those models. edit
  13. Carvers Gap
    As @John1122notes, the Euro has a fantastic look. However, it has less snow. It is an improvement over 6z, but is lacking it seems in precip. Nice track and maybe even a little wiggle room...
  14. Carvers Gap
    IDK, that is a pretty good run. Looks similar or better to 6z.
  15. Carvers Gap
    It sent a slp in front of the main low. Prior, that went off the coast. Good pass, but a new variation.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is rollling. Unless I am mistaken, it is an improvement.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Textbook for eastern forum areas.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, agree. This may be a deal that as soon as the heavier rates hit, the snow flips over and just rips.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Chattanooga folks, another good run.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GDPS is a textbook track. Nice, nice look.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I would think there would be convection under some of that. Great find.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS trended a bit SE with its snow axis.
  23. Carvers Gap
    IMHO, it is always safer about 95% of the time to go with lower totals at this range. That is an increase from yesterday. They have room to up the totals if 0z comes in bigger.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Just washed out a bit due to so many solutions, some of which are likely minor. If the storm continues to get bigger on future runs, the weaker solutions will be weeded out. That is a great look there. Thanks for that share.
  25. Carvers Gap
    That gets into Atlanta there, right?
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