Carvers Gap

12z GFS now has the storm this weekend for E TN as does the CMC. Not a thing is nailed down with this storm. Not sure modeling is correctly even jumping on the right piece of energy yet. So, what looked like agreement this morning is anything but at 12z that said, both models have a system this weekend, just differing days. Looks like a good chance for eastern parts of the forum area to finally see something trackable.

My expectations are for 1" of snow. The bar is set low. I am sleeting my way to part of that. LOL. I think we all see some snow once the low gets by us. How much is wherever those def bands set-up after 7:00PM.

We are on the front end of this. Right now rain, sleet, and snow with freezing rain. Looks like a dry slot and then we wait for the backside of this. Total slop fest here and mess! We must have dropped below freezing as raised surfaces are now coated with a thin glaze of ice.

For those living in E TN, modeling as we kind of guessed...moved westward overnight with the exception of the GFS. The 0z CMC and Euro both have a significant winter storm signal next week from E TN into the Piedmont. All ensembles have the system to some extent.

I know. LOL. Just sucks us back in. 0z on the left. 18z on the left. Literally, I have no idea what this is going to do. I am just sharing model runs. LOL.

So somebody remind me, does this eruption help us? It is the high latitude ones which are a "non starter" in terms of a temporary global downturn in temps. Seems like high latitude makes it a lot warmer and lower latitudes cool things significantly for 3-5 years. Either way, I hope the folks near that eruption are ok

If they are going to issue that, then they need to issue blizzard warnings above 4000' if that occurs. Will be nuts up there. May have to chase to Roan Mtn.

Also, some of those super cold temps are showing up during the next two weeks. While we have been tracking this storm, the medium and LR has loaded up.

To clarify....Next two weeks AFTER the storm. 18z GFS has a big storm next weekend as does the Euro and CMC. Euro and CMC are both to the SE with that system, but I suspect it trends to the NW as pretty much every storm has. This current storm moved almost 300-400 miles west once it began to move - I think. Good look for E TN IF it holds.

We are either going to be... or or or ....but for now I am . Seriously @Kasper, I post a lot when the board is quiet, especially medium and long range stuff. But when you all are doing the discussing, it is a blast just to sit back and watch the forum go to work. And man, the 18z GFS looked good. This storm is likely the beginning of about a 12-14 day cold shot. Fingers crossed that the STJ stay active. We are likely in a good spot for once during the last two weeks of January.

Been out doing some running this morning and some other errands. Then watched the UT basketball game.................................................Recovering from the UK/UT game. I can only handle watching so much bad basketball in one afternoon, and then try to watch models after that. Update: 18z Euro looked steady. It also had a slight 25 mi SE jog over the Carolinas. Didn't make much difference to the run. Also, there are just times when I don't know what the crap it is going to do. LOL. This is one of them.

12z GFS continues the trend of bumping up totals in E TN - Chattanooga...Wow!!!

I get the downslope deal, but seems like modeling has really accentuated that feature more than normal. They may be right as there is not fresh, cold air in place, and maybe it has a bit more influence than normal due to marginally cold air. That track is perfect if the air mass is colder - just in between two cold shots right now which is a bummer.

If there is any trend I am seeing across the ARW, RGEM, and NAM at 0z it is that the storm is slightly faster and slightly east around 24 or 27 hours.

Check that, the 12z RGEM has begun to make the jump at 28 regarding mslp. Thermal profiles is a wreck for pretty much everyone.

12z RGEM looks west of its 6z run. Modeling is all over the place. Nice improvement by the WRF-ARW for eastern areas along with the NAM. RGEM will likely be west of those two models.

12z WRF-ARW has a similar trend it appears. That is two models which have come in with an eastward jog.

The differences in the NAM occur right after the low fires on the Panhandle (GA/FL/AL border). Above post was about MSLP. So is this one. From that point as it jogs NE, there is more of an eastward component to the low when compared to 6. Very minor adjustment with BIG consequences for the eastern valley. Could have been a hiccup or the beginning of a trend. Just going to have to watch it.

Yeah, was further east and the inland runner low fired earlier. Seems like it was faster. At one point the slp popped about 100 miles SE of its earlier location. At 27, you can see the slp is about 100 miles east of where it was at 6z.

Yeah, somebody may want to look at the 12z NAM if you live in E TN.

The 12z NAM transfers to the coast sooner....and favors the secondary to fire earlier than it did at 6z.

12z NAM is a wee bit different.

The NMB model bumped up and inch or two or your area it looks like at 6z. Man, I have such low confidence in modeling for this storm.

Very true. That happens in NE TN all the time, especially Johnson City. Models try to smooth out the transition form the mountains to lower elevations when in fact the transition is quite sharp if looking directly from above. The real pain is when modeling tries to smooth things out between the Plateau and Apps - the distance between the two is pretty narrow up here. I have set the bar at 1" for MBY. Anything else is gravy. With wrecked thermals, downscoping, dry slot, and a low tracking into the Apps....not a great set-up at first glance. Maybe the eastern valley gets a surprise. With cold air not already in place, super tough forecast for the pros.

0z RGEM has run. Just a heads up.