Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Exactly! -
Cone is Nashville to Raleigh. Range of options is rain to 12" of snow. When in doubt, go cold rain. LOL.
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The 18z Euro and 18z GFS don't even look like they are modeling the same storm at the surface.
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I mean where can one get that type of information other than here, and for free at that. This is such a great forum.
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Agree. There is a HP which is sitting over the top which might be blocking it, but there is not bitterly cold air mass shunting southward. That said bowling balls are notoriously tough to predict.
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The 12z Canadian has an upslope event around d10. Way out there, but good to see modeling seeing something w/ that cold shot.
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The 12z GFS has a mid-south slider around d10 FWIW. That is going to change likely, but worth noting. That is the 18th timeframe that we have had circled as well...no cutter this run. edit: sorry. cutter 17th and then slider right after.
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Euro was slight jog to the east. CMC was a slight jog west. GFS was an ever so slight jog west. They may be converging on a storm track. We will see. The 12z GEPS has a decent snow mean over TRI...4-5".
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A little off topic, but @Holston_River_Ramblerthe woodpeckers in CA new that a hard winter was inbound... https://heraldcourier.com/news/national/woodpeckers-hoard-over-700-pounds-of-acorns-in-vacation-rental-home/article_56c015b4-d914-5b00-a2d0-3cb403d4b36f.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Bristol_Herald_Courier&fbclid=IwAR1LFxFcHxJ4DScXnpdBVFPvQUg6QaAgiTCyYojccRipQXVgaR8Dfk_3EZI
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Re: 12z....The CMC backed further west around 96. The GFS looked like it was going to early in its run. The big thing I notice is that it is slowing down. That might allow for a bigger storm.
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Very steady look by the CMC. For once, can the GFS actually be too progressive this winter, and live up to its old bias...LOL.
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I ask selfishly, because sometimes that works out for E TN as well. I seem to remember that phase 3-4 has a weird correlation to snow in your area. I filed that away just because it is unusual.
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Looks like it has slowed on the CMC as well.
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FWIW, the 12z GFS looks like it has a feedback issue w/ stalling this just west of Hatteras.
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The other thing is the 12z GFS does not appear to have a consolidated center as it seems to have one foot in the faster solution and one foot in the slower....slightly double barrel in nature. Someone remind me...doesn't NC have a weird teleconnection to phase 4-5 of the MJO? @Met1985, do you remember that study that @GaWxhad at one time. In other words, right in the middle of that warm tour...NC scores more often than not.
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Looks super similar to 6z...just slower. That slow down "could" produce a more westward component to the trajectory if that trend continues. Slower usually results in westward down the line.
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Can u see past 66h?
