Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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As John noted earlier, single digits to near zero are possible in its wake.
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12z GFS has the nor'easter. With continuity now on the GFS, looks like we have a storm to track this weekend. Now, we need a westward trend which "I think" could be accomplished with a stronger system. My guess is that as modeling finaling dials this in(sees it), it could be a very strong storm. Right now, E TN scores off the northern system and also gets a little bit of a deformation band deal as the storm goes by. We are probably going to see several variations of this on modeling.
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MRX calling its shot prior to the 6z GFS run....nice. Friday through Sunday By the end of the week, focus will turn towards a trough progressing out of the Great Plains and a developing system in the western Gulf. The overall consensus has been and continues to be that the system will take a track similar to a Miller A with uncertainty still remaining. The latest deterministic GFS/ECMWF keep the associated dynamics far enough south and out of phase with the trough for only light snow showers resulting as the trough moves into the area. Within most global ensemble members and the CMC deterministic guidance, however, the indication is for perhaps more mentionable dynamics/forcing in our region that could produce a more widespread accumulating light snowfall. In any case, 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures are expected to fall more than 2 standard deviations below normal by the weekend, likely spelling potential for far below normal temperatures, potentially colder than what has been seen this year. As such, the overall message remains the same with low probability HWO wording utilized based on uncertainty for snow and increasing likelihood of abnormally cold temperatures and cold wind chills.
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Looks like we are now exiting the time frame where modeling loses storms which is during the 4-5 day time frame. All three global operationals now have some sort of storm for the Friday to Saturday timeframe. If we can hold that look through the 12z suite, I would suggest confidence is growing that cyclogenesis will occur during that time frame along or just off the SE coast. I would think our best chance for snow is with the northern stream system which amplifies and phases with the southern branch. We certainly will be pulling for a northwest jog of the coastal low as well. The 6z GFS is very close to being a very good run for E TN - the Euro not so much but it still has a storm
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Is it just me or did the 18z GEFS just flip the trough in the LR back to the East? The CMC has a similar look. 12z CFSv2 has a similar look. Surprised to see the GEFS move.
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Yeah, will be interesting to see what finally comes of this.
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LOL. Jax put the ninja on me as well... I am going to add one more possibility to the 3 above: 4. The northern stream vortex dominates and NE TN/ SE KY/ SW VA get a decent clipper of 2-3" out of that. The 18z ICON has a similar solution. I am sure there are about 10 more that I missed, but those seem to be the common looks on modeling.
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Good find. With roughly 1/3 to 1/2 of recent operational GFS solutions having a slp(ensuing precip shield as well) climb the length the eastern seaboard(almost right along the coast), this will be interesting to see which camp of solutions wins. For now, the OTS option looks slightly more likely, but who knows in light of that discussion. That is a very strong vortex coming through next weekend. The CMC does demonstrate the camp of solutions which manage to gain latitude. If models are breaking down blocking too quickly, that would almost certainly change the location of the potential storm.
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I think we see one of three things occurring in no particular order: 1. Modeling is in error in dragging its heals in the southwest. 2. That low is going to cut-off in the southwest. Seems like modeling is caught between solutions one and two. Either solution would like produce a big storm. Obviously, timing would change if the the low cuts-off. 3. May just get strung out. With that trough swinging through at 500, have to think something pops. May just be too many pieces for modeling to juggle. But still, a strung out solution has happened many, many times in the past. Interestingly, my yard is not dry at this point. Fall was just rough here in terms of drought. Off the top of my head, IMBY we went 2-3 weeks without precip, maybe on more than one occasion. I rarely just let my garden go during the fall, but we did this year. Didn't even plant any fall crops due to the warm temps and dry soil...and also being busy. I need to get in my garden and work, but it is too muddy. Our rivers and creeks are finally at normal levels again. There is snow still on shady banks in Colonial Heights. Saw some this AM. We ar going to put in a couple of cold frames this spring(built but on in the garden yet). I hope to get my low tunnel up this week. Let's hope La Nina fades quickly. I don't want to be in a rainfall deficit early in the growing season.
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And from there, I highly doubt we see that setup verify. That is a really weird evolution. LOL. Can't even begin to describe it.
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At 114, this looks a lot like 18z yesterday.
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With that digging like that, I don't think modeling has this nailed down. JB used to call that area money in the bank, i.e. at some point it is coming out and forming a storm.
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I wonder if the eventual solution is the low gets cut off in the Southwest and then meanders through the SE. Ninja to Holston. FTR, I had not read Chill's comments. But if that is the eventual solution, ALL BETS are off down stream. At that point, it becomes a bowling ball.
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At 96, this is not a weak vortex over Utah. This is different than the last two runs.
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18z GFS is rolling.
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So the 12z CMC has it this go around.
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Both the 0z CMC and 6z GFS have the storm in almost the same spot they have had it for days, just weaker. The phase is different with almost each run. Modeling has trended away from a stronger phase of late, but let's see where this goes during the next couple of days. We are kind of at the point where modeling loses storms only to regain that look 4-5 days out. But with a slp reflection in the near the exact place as found yesterday, the potential still exists for a significant storm along the EC. The GDPS ensemble is probably most aggressive as it very close mimics some of the stronger operational runs from the past two days. The biggest trend is a later phase. We need an earlier phase. For NE TN, SE KY, and SW VA...the northern stream system is on most modeling. This could potentially result in 1-3" of snow over the area, even the valleys. With that strong of an impulse in the northern stream....that alone bears some watching. I also wouldn't rule out 1-2 threats immediately after the weekend system. As John notes, a pattern shake-up is plausible/ highly likely as the trough retrogrades into the West. At that point, we will likely see some nice February days with intermittent cold as it is very likely the cold will push at times with that type of pattern. Still, we have gotten much more winter than I would have envisioned for this winter. Plus, the Vols got a hard fought and much needed win last night on the hard court.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Uros. -
Here is what is odd...If this was a rogue run, that is now three rogue runs out of the last nine. Seems like an off-run would not be repeated without some support at some level. It is worth noting as well that this type of solution isn’t just showing up on the GFS. We are seeing this setup across modeling along with hit or miss big runs. I tend to think models might be honing-in on a big storm. The 12z Euro had a nice storm right after the one the GFS has had. The ingredients are there for a big storm. Whether it happens, no idea. Obviously, nothing is a certainty at this range.
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LOL. I ended up doing what I said I wasn't going to do anyway. The model might be feeding back along the coast, but if that storms slows/stalls it is going to gain strength. That is the track sequence of a big storm - slp originates in the GOM and the northern stream punches the turbo boost.
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60+mph winds long the coast at 10m. The tide in Chesapeake Bay would be ripping. Just one run, but incredibly impressive to see that look now 3x out of 9 runs. Obviously not set in stone, but the wildest run yet. Model mayhem for sure.
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IF it verifies that strong, we may only need that slp track to move just a smidge. That is hurricane level stuff on that run. I need to go look at the winds.
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I would take that run verbatim in terms of low placement and run with it! LOL.
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That was a MONSTER run to our east and not bad for E TN. It snowed from Destin to Maine with that run. It was more impressive than yesterday IMHO.
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968mb slp over Hatteras at 177 and stalled out. Wow. edit: 966 just after that at 180.
