Carvers Gap

Van Gough had a time when he painted only in blue. In honor of @tnweathernut, I call this "Spring Before Winter."

I want to open what is behind door #25. Door #3 is my backup.

The above probably encompasses two storm windows March 1-13 and after March 15th. Decent signal for the SE.

12z GEFS ensembles.

A second tornado warning has been posted w the same cell as above. This one tracks just south of the TN/AL line.

Just released on FB....source MRX.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 TNC051-031830- /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-230303T1830Z/ Franklin TN- 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY... At 1202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Huntland, or 10 miles southwest of Winchester, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Cowan around 1215 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Beans Creek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3500 8625 3506 8626 3523 8598 3499 8595 TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 242DEG 52KT 3505 8618 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

Tornado warning posted for NE Alabama and SE middle TN .... west of Chatt.

This March has a lot of elements for a really crazy month - meaning extreme pockets of cold and warm air masses. When those clash...

MRX is banging the drum on social media. They want everyone to be award of the impending line of storms. TRI folks, looks like 5:00-7:00ish.

Thunder in the mountains today?....If we can simply say that modeling is going to be all over the place and ignore details, we might be able to find some storm tracks. The Euro takes the system around the 10th and cuts through middl TN. No surprise given the seasonal tracks. It has wrap around snow and is cold. Cold is pretty much on the table as a very highly likely scenario. Here are the last two GFS operational runs. I have no idea which we will see, but that is a pretty interesting couple of model runs for middle to late March. In Strava, they have local legends for running segments. @Holston_River_Rambleris in the running for the local legend if we get snow during March.

Yeah, overnight runs across modeling continued the trend of a very active STJ and HL blocking. If this was January, those storms might get sent to Cuba. Because of it being March, we will have a tough time keeping them South of us....but for now, that is what modeling is depicting in general.

Things that make you go hmmmm. Look closely at the dates. Hot off the press. I am tired of tracking stuff in the d10-15 range. Let's real this in folks. Just 400 more runs of the operational before we hit pay dirt. Remember w/ El Nino patterns: Jan/Feb are the months...and sometimes only Feb. Usually a delayed start to winter, everybody gets frustrated, and then winter hits. With this run...December was warm. Jan - cool. Feb - cold. On this run, Kingsport got 75" of snow. TYS only got 5" for the season.

The 18z GFS looks like the middle of winter....FWIW.

The 18z GFS is loaded.....

The interior NE could possible rival what the West has just experienced.

Sure. Here is the mean. This is probably more realistic. And I am pretty sure the 12z run was colder...these Weeklies were derived from 0z. Crazy map for 30d.

I am a sucker when it comes for an extreme run. This is the Euro control 7-day mean for d8-15. That is HIGHLY unlikely, but what a wild map. For those new to following the forum, those are departures from normal and NOT actual temps...but still.

In fantasy land just to show how extreme a run the Euro was, the control has SE KY, SW VA, and portions of NE TN....below zero for temps w/ snow on the ground at hour 300. This is a pattern where the cold really doesn't dump into the West first due to the Atlantic block. It comes straight down the Plains or over the Lakes. The only thing that modifies that air is length of day and lack of snow pack.

Real feels are in the teens and low 20s if I remember correctly. I am going to enjoy my peach tree blooming, because we aren't getting peaches this year. LOL. If it weren't at d8-9, I would post the departures map, and may anyway at some point. The mountains were 40 degrees below normal. As I said earlier, if the folks hiking the Appalachian Trail started early, they better have a plan come March 10th.

To be clear regarding the hot water heater, I am not sure we could get it out of the backyard because it still had water in it. The spout was clogged with deposits, and it wouldn't drain. I turned it over on its side and left there for a few days. I am sure the neighbors were loving it. LOL. The is the "bad hot water heater" pattern (BHWH).

I foresee March being like the opener to last night's show.

FWIW, I think the mountains of E TN and W NC get buried at some point. Winter is shifting from the West to the East for a couple of weeks from March 10th to ~25th. I think I will possibly see at least a trace of snow which will seem like a minor miracle after several days in the 70s and wearing shorts.

I would be very surprised if there weren't a couple of eastern storms by the end of March. Now, that doesn't mean here...just MillerA/B stuff as Holston spoke about in his earlier comments. This is the setup for those. More than likely the Northeast just gets buried.