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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I am going to use the other thread for the 23rd system for right now. The 6z GFS is trying to get something going on the 25th now as well.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS still goes w/ a powerful Noreaster. It does pop a low over Erie, so it does see the potential for a more westward solution. At one point it has a low was of Detroit, one over maybe PA, and one off the SE coast. There is more snow in Ohio on that run which tells me more energy was held back west of the Apps. I think that is a reasonable run as wonky as it was. The Euro seems too wound up. It makes sense to pop a coastal or a slp in the GOM(which this GFS run has) due to the strength of the front. The 500vort map definitely had a more shallow run over the TN Valley.
  3. Carvers Gap
    At 135, the GFS has a slp in the eastern Panhandle. Got think that is gonna make some sparks here in a few.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Something to consider, the 0z EPS is much different over the Aleutians d10-15. It is much warmer than other modeling in the LR. Its 500mb pattern over the continental US/Canada looks similar to other modeling, but the strength of that low is causing very warm temp anomalies. I can't find that on other models, especially over the eastern US. It makes me wonder if there is an issue w/ the model in the northwest Pacific. It seems like it is stalling systems in error.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Having the ICON climb on board gets me back to 55/45 it is going to happen as the GFS has it. I think the Euro is playing into some old biases. @Holston_River_Rambler, what are you doing up so early? As for me, we had a carbon monoxide detector battery go bad. The periodic beep was driving us crazy. LOL. We have been wondering through the house for about fifteen minutes trying to find which detector was bad. As any good wx hobby person would do, I sat down and looked at modeling instead of going back to bed.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It is important to remember....we still have ~ten more weeks of winter.
  7. Carvers Gap
    They are probably riding the 89-90 analog. The 500mb map is good for most of Jan(through the 20th at least). The source region is suspect as Canada is scoured by cold. But...we only need seasonal temps to score in January. I tend to lean 10-11 as my analog for this year. There is a pretty decent signal for cold during the second and third weeks of January.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Nah, man. We got your back. And please don't quit creating threads.
  9. Carvers Gap
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS looks awfully similar to the 12z GFS...awfully similar.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 18z would be a strikeout for much of the E TN valley. I would be super happy for you all out west, and that track would fit the last two great winters for middle and west TN. That run would yield nearly nothing for the E TN valley - model smoothing(high amounts in the mountains) causes the valleys to appear as if they have snow. A slp moving through E TN is usually a non-starter. Still, a LONG ways to go before this system is nailed down. To me, that was a fairly huge step towards the Euro/CMC. It is a cave in that direction. Now, I am not sold on things cutting into this block. Right now, I would set a one from Fayetteville to Nashville w/ backside mood flakes in E TN.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The one I am thinking of is a line graph w/ time as the x-axis and model verification as the y-axis. One model is represented w/ triangle points, another squares, and so on.....I am heading out the door or would dig a bit more.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, I should have been more specific. Looking for the one which compares the GFS to other global modeling.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The GFS has been absolutely terrible since the upgrade. Last winter, it definitely led the way on multiple occasions. I would like to get some recent verification scores for the GFS (short, medium, and long range). Seems like it has done better during the past week or so. That said, the GFS was abysmal in the medium and long range when predicting this cold outbreak. If I remember correctly, it kept sticking the upcoming trough in the west and missed the timing on the cold outbreak almost completely - looked like it misread the MJO. At one point the upgrade was scoring worse than its predecessor. OTH, the bias of the Euro(amping things up) could certainly be in play. However, that is usually not the game of the CMC. Sometimes the Euro holds energy back in error, and sometimes it is right...but it pretty much does this for almost every system in the d7 range during winter. The only support the GFS has is the JMA. The JMA used to be fairly accurate when hunting big storms. Now, it just throws darts w/ a blindfold on..... Seriously, at this range...it is nearly impossible to get a decent read on a system. For now this is what we probably know....it is going to get really cold. There is going to be a strong cold front(likely some frozen precip along it). There is going to be a storm - Plains likely, but not set in stone.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Does anyone have the most updated verification scores for modeling inside of days 10, 7, and 5?
  16. Carvers Gap
    In the LR, looks this cold shot will break fast as a continent wide chinook looks to develop later this month and into early January(500 pattern doesn't change a ton, but enough to allow maritime air into the pattern). The BN heights in Alaska are at odds with the trough in the SE. Something is going to give there. As is, the BN heights in Alaska flood the top of the PNA ridge w/ maritime air. Most modeling has had this, but maybe not the the extreme seen on the 12z suite. We still keep the trough - no cold in early January to dump into it (poor source regions). That said, this original cold pattern looked to lack a good source region and that changed. I agree w/ Tellico above, the operationals (at 7 days out) are just another ensemble.
  17. Carvers Gap
    We need the PNA ridge in the LR to get a bit taller. If it doesn't, we are going to see a continent-wide chinook to end December. I think we cool off again as modeling has trended towards a favorable January...but it is worth noting that early January could be seasonal to AN. The 12z GFS was a great lead off....rest of the modeling suite left it on base w/ the side getting struck out in order. What does interest me is a storm which will follow this cold blast which is firmly on all modeling. Again, at this range everything is on the table. Christmas is still nine days out.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is a more extreme cutter than the CMC in my opinion. The CMC is kind of in the middle of the GFS and Euro in terms of track. Not a step in the right direction for the Euro. That said, if it is hanging on to that energy too long in the northern plains(and it easily could be doing that), the GFS could be right...but no way in heck I am sharing a foxhole w/ the GFS after the past 3-4 weeks of performance. Again, the big thing right now is there is going to be some variation as this is still seven days out. I lean cutter for now...but barely.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Would not surprise me either w/ the Euro having issues w/ digging a tad too much out west which is cutting the slp directly into the block - and that doesn't make sense.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Basically we have a cutter on the Euro/CMC vs the wildly erratic GFS(and slightly progressive). I hope the GFS is right, but it is gonna have to have some support.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like the 12z Euro is super similar to the 12z CMC. The 12z GFS may be on to something, but it has absolutely zero support right now at 12z. It can sniff out storms, but it might be sniffing something as well....has been since the upgrade. Both camps are plausible.
  22. Carvers Gap
    When I am having to find the ' instead of the "....you know that was a big run. GFS...all caveats apply.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Well, someone feel free to post the Kuchara map. Whoa.
  24. Carvers Gap
    At 192 is is again stalled on the benchmark.
  25. Carvers Gap
    At 186, the slp is crawling towards the benchmark at a hefty 965. The block won't let it escape.
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