Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Yeah, the wind will be still here and then it shakes the house. We have had some huge gusts today. Looks like the airport had a gust up to 38mph today. I would guess the ones IMBY were strong. You could hear the wind whistling through the cracks in our window(and they are updated window). I have never heard wind forcing into our windows like that. 18z GFS has the storm for western TN again...creeping eastward ever so slightly.
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Man, the 12z CMC shows super frozen set-up. With the firehose on....the cold is going to cause problems if it gets southeast far enough.
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The 12z GFS feels like Memphis hasn’t had enough ice for this season!
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We have very cold air about to interact with the firehose. I don't claim to know where this interaction will occur over the East, but it looks like that likelihood is growing.
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The 0z CMC(beware....WxBell has not updated...use TT) has the overrunning event and the 6z GFS pretty much has it but with less frozen precip. I think the setup is there late next week on modeling again this morning. It just doesn't have the great looking clown maps. But the set-up is there. The Euro is not on board at this time. It has a couple of shots of precip into the eastern Plains and that is it. The GFS and CMC push the cold further SE.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
TRI's snowfall data is completely and totally corrupted. -
@Holston_River_Rambler, the Thunder in the Mountains (TIMS) mode was alive and breathing at 12z. LOL!!! Seriously, what an uncanny rule of thumb.
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@Math/Met, any mountain wave updates. It is howling in west Kingsport BTW. Looks like that wind has worked its way down to the surface here.
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Both the 12z CMC and GFS end the warm-up right around the 24th, and then there is a return to BN temps. That return to cold has moved up ~7 days. It was on tap around March 3-4th at one time. This could be a long climb back to spring if that pattern establishes(Yukon Ridge). I tend to agree with Jeff that this pattern is on borrowed time, but some seasonal modeling is hinting at bouts of cold during spring vs a full warm-up and winter is over deal.
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The CMC doesn't go out as far(240(, but it established a gradient set-up as well. The next system isn't in play when the run ends. This look has been showing up for days on ensemble runs. Operationals are finally picking up on it.
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Normally, I would toss anything that extreme. However, the actual mechanics appear to be in place for something like that. I would guess more of KY and the Ohio River Valley event...but it depends on how far the cold presses. That look will likely be gone next run, but the synoptics are likey still there, meaning huge amounts of moisture and a potentially very colder mass later this month and into early February. That is the stuff dreams are made of...LOL.
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With a VERY active STJ and cold looking more likely(and is speeding up in modeling a bit) for early March and even late February, an overrunning event of undetermined duration is a plausible scenario. Firehose meets cold air mass.
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I will take what the 12z GFS is serving up, and call it a winter.
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Looks like a Yukon block on the LR GEFS at 18z. @nrgjeffis that what that is or am I misreading that?
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The 12z GEFS brought back the colder shot (6z was cold...0z was COLD).
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It may or may not work out, but that is a nasty looking shot of cold showing up again on modeling this morning. I don't think lower elevations are out of the game. We just haven't seen a crazy March in a while. Even recently, I have seen light, measurable snow into April IMBY. It may well flip back warm during that time frame, but the speed of the flip on modeling could indicate significant cold relative to norms. We'll see. Still have a couple of weeks until that time frame gets here. A lot can and will change at that time. For now, we have the 0z GEFS/EPS/Euro Weeklies on board. It could bust. The much discussed 10th-20th timeframe will not verify as cold or snowy as modeled at range.
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Yep. I think that is what modeling is showing.
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New is left and old is right. Day 14-21. Cold is centered after March 2nd or 3rd. The overall configuration at 500 is a snowstorm look. Lots of cutters, but one of those cutters could likely force a bowling ball underneath.
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Major flip on the Euro Weeklies around week 2.5. They have turned quite cold. Of course, it could be a mirage, but those are some abrupt changes that are showing up on LR modeling. At least to me, that is a pretty significant storm signal which we don't always see during March these days. I don't think winter is over. It may take a break for a couple of weeks, but that looks not warm for early March.
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Unless I am just looking at the wrong slides, that is a fairly significant flip by the 12z GEFS post 300 to a cooler/colder pattern and away from the torch.
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And if the EPS is correct, we go from a flood pattern and back to a huge eastern PAC block which would set the stage for some cold wx in March. The GEFS is less enthused. I am a lot less bullish on a warm and early spring than I was a week ago. We are definitely going to see a warmup prior to any cold along with massive return flow and moisture.
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Just looking at the CFSv2 and the EPS with the east Pac/AK block...winter is not over IMHO. That is a BIG east Pac block at the end of the EPS run. CFSv2 is quite cold looking mid-late March. I would not be surprised (to each @John1122) to see a rogue snowstorm in March.
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Moderate to heavy dusting of snow IMBY.
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...In addition to the potential light event this weekend and the window around the 20th(the storm AFTER the cutter).
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Looks like the last window will be just after March 10th. Yep, I think there is one last gasp.
