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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Super similar set-up IMHO. Models seem to be trending a bit SE. A cutter west of the Apps or some sort of energy transfer to the coastal plain are possible. Let's see if trends continue overnight. If totals increase again tomorrow, modeling may be on to something.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The snow axis is trending a bit to the SE. Really, the overall synoptics look good for much of the forum area. I am wondering if we actually see a clean pass to the south with this.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro follows suit with a pretty good thump for much of the forum area....actually a major winter storm for many.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Both the GFS and CMC are pretty clean phases on the 12th. @Math/Met, I see you lurking. Man, the wind is HOWLING here in Kingsport. Any mountain wave stuff reported in your neck of the woods?
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is more robust with the system this weekend as well.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That is a pretty good look on the 12z GFS. It is slightly more progressive and a bit more of a clean pass for the eastern areas. The 12z ICON is what you want in middle and western forum areas. Modeling seems to be keeping this area in the cone for wintry precip this weekend.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS and 0z Euro have very similar solutions with an area of slp popping east of the Apps. We have been playing this game all winter. The million dollar question is where does that low form? For now, we are loosely tracking late season, winter storm potential for both the lower and higher elevations.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I definitely agree with John about the amping issue. If the GFS is not amped, that is a huge storm. As is, it is pretty good.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is a pretty big storm for much of the forum area...especially middle and west, but not limited to there.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has a good synoptic set-up, but a big disorganized with the well-placed slp. The low track is nearly perfect. A bit stronger, and that low would be a boomer.
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is a fairly decent looking system. CMC now cuts through middle TN, and also has a big storm at the end of the run. Pretty big signal showing up right now.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Th 6z GFS run has system back. It looks like models is looking at three scenarios. 1. Cold front passage with snow showers behind the front. 0z CMC 2. A wave of low pressure forms to our SE and allow for a bigger snow event. 6z GFS 3. Cutter through E TN which allows for snow in middle and west forum areas. 0z Euro
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18Z GFS looks about as good for NE TN as did at any point during winter. LOL!!!
  14. Carvers Gap
    Basically, modeling is not sure how to handle the wave that is developing on a cold depicted for March 12th. The 6z GFS shows a best case scenario/partial phase.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I could be wrong, but I think the chances of a winter storm around the 12th are increasing for at least some portion of the forum area. The 0z Euro has a pretty good signal. This is one of these "wave riding a front" deals. Just too far out to get any decent handle on the details, but the setup is there on modeling - even if every run doesn't hit the jackpot.
  16. Carvers Gap
    It would be wild if I got more snow after March 1st than I did prior to that. The Euro Weeklies are cold and have nearly a 6" snow mean over NE TN....not bad for portions of the state considering it is March and like 95 degrees today - hyperbole. This cold shot could be nasty. The GEFS MJO this morning (CPC reference) was rotating back to phases 2-3 which are cold when centered on March - the coldest phases of that cycle for this time of year.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro bringing the juice mid to late run.
  18. Carvers Gap
    3" snow mean on the 18z GEFS for NE TN for the middle of March!
  19. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS says that winter is not over.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like modeling is seeing something around March 12th with a strong cold shot coming a few days after. Enjoy the spring warmth. Ugly pattern seems to be on many models after the 12th.
  21. Carvers Gap
    @Weathertree2, I think it is going to depend on the ENSO state. If we switch to El Nino and don't have a Nina hangover, I think it should be tolerable with maybe a seasonable fall. The hot, dry, never-ending summers are La Nina's typically. I will probably lean seasonal to maybe slightly above for summer, and seasonal for spring.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a decent trough amplification around March 12th. Something to keep an eye on.
  23. Carvers Gap
    LR models are really starting to bang the drum for a cold shot right around or just after March 10th. This wouldn't be a spring like cold air mass, but one more like winter.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Couple of light sleet showers rolled through here this morning. I was like, "What in the world is that?" Fairly decent sized pingers.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I gotta be honest, the Euro Weeklies don't look warm after week 2. I was kind of surprised. Now, I think the GEFS has handled the MJO better. However, it looks like the Euro Weeklies are rotating into the cold phases just after March 10th. Holston alluded to that above I think.
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