Carvers Gap

Check this out! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 353 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 TNZ015>017-042-044-046-VAZ001-005-006-008-120600- /O.UPG.KMRX.WW.Y.0009.220312T0600Z-220312T2200Z/ /O.EXB.KMRX.WS.W.0005.220312T0600Z-220312T2200Z/ Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington TN- Northwest Carter-Lee-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Rose Hill, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 353 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Snow and ice covered roadways are possible, mainly across the secondary roadways, bridges and overpasses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow combined with the blustery winds will greatly reduce visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

WSWs have been hoisted for the NE TN.

This feels like Jan 1-2 where it was so warm and the hammer dropped the next day, and it snowed. What is modeled would fit the seasonal pattern of extreme warmth to frigid. This is like living out West during June!

@AMZ8990, how close are you to that band in west TN that the RGEM is depicting. That could be a good thump!

My "go to" short range model is the RGEM which is basically that one.

If a system is going to bust high, spring is the time. For five years I lived in JC, seemed like many March snows over-performed. Not saying that will happen, but the proximity to the warm waters of the GOM is good. One other thing I meant to mention in relation to the jet streak being tough to model and that causing variations...I do wonder if when the precip is lower if there is convection along the GOM. That will shut off the spigot in a hurry.

Lock that in. That little blue hole over NE TN is my house - no lie. So now, we know that is right. LOL. Man, glad you are posting.

If these have already been posted, my apologies. To me, modeling doesn't seem a lot different than yesterday. The problem is that modeling just can't predict all of the chaotic bands of snow which develop. They may be well having trouble with the jet streak. The slightest difference in that feature may be causing the model swings - just a guess/hypothesis to be tested.

Just check the NMB, and that looks like what MRX is using. It lags by one model run, meaning it uses the blend from the previous suite which was the 0z one. The 12z blend should be higher. Again, that is the right call. It is easy to adjust should models continue those significant adjustments. Plus, it is a Saturday morning when commutes are low.

That said....the 6z runs for TRI, some of them have been huge. Nice trends for NE TN at 6z. Let's see if we can actually hold onto those.

Looks like modeling is bumping up totals at TRI. I am assuming that MRX derived those WSWs from the 0z run. About half of the model runs(during the past 3-4 days) are leaving less snow up this way comparatively to other locals. TRI is on the eastern envelope of the storm totals. Those shifted slightly eastward at 6z. They can easily upgrade or downgrade a WWA...so not a bad call on their part. My guess is they will wait for another suite before thinking about changes. Again, good call as modeling seems to be on-again and off-again. Should the models hold to the bigger totals at 12z, I would think there is potential for an upgrade. Interestingly, I don't think the WSW have verified (generally speaking) in NE TN all winter. So, understandably the winter trend this winter likely makes them skittish - it does me as well.

18z Euro with basically the same look BTW...just the "less precip" look from 12z. Basically, same run with no big changes. Sorry, that earlier post might have sounded like something changed. Not really...

The 18z Euro continues with a strung out look where the front runner low climbs the coast and washes out the pattern behind it and flattens the next, main storm a bit due to lack of separation. I can't find that look on other modeling. It was not on the Euro yesterday at this time. It went OTS.

MRX mentions a strong jet streak. We may just have our own forcing. Good point.

18z RGEM drops the HAMMER!

Convection to our south could cut off moisture transport, so that is something to watch as well. @Daniel Boone, are you seeing any evidence that could happen?

I am just going to hug the 12k for MBY. Just a 1.7-9.5" range of accumulations on the NAMs for 18z over TRI. LOL. I will gladly take a blend of the 3k and 12k!

3K NAM says @John1122 is gonna feel like he is living in the Sierra Nevadas with 20" of snow!

Monster run of the NAM incoming. NE TN will like this one. Well, pretty much the entire forum area.

Bumped up at 12z. 2-4” region wide. 18z should be better or even much better. I think @TellicoWxsaid that it is derived from the runs 6 hours earlier. So, 18z should be pulled from the 12z suite. And by the way, where is Tellico? Hope all is good!

This is shaping up to have a very traditional inland runner to Nor'Easter track. The big NE cities are involved at 12z.

Yeah, that is right. I remember that now. @PowellVolz, strike my earlier comment. @John1122is correct. That is the main difference.

Let me check. Seems like generally the 12 suite of global models was a slight tick slower, but now since you ask, I am not sure if the Euro was slower or not. I have looked at so many maps, I can't remember. Did you think it was faster? Overall, tracks(other than the NAM) looked solid.

Plateau looks to be money. John, Shocker, and Co should rack up. I think the Euro is under doing things. NAM might be a bit too juiced. Maybe blend the Euro, RGEM, and GFS and that is probably a good solution.

Starting to see the mountains of NC involved for both the Euro and Canadian runs....meaning we have some wiggle room on those models. edit