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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Loosely, it looks like a transition to a more favorable pattern (after the warmth) begins to return around the 5th and is solidly in place by the 10th at 500mb. It would not surprise me to see some can kicking. Cold will lag slightly. I would post the 12z GEFS and GEPS, but they are 300+ and subject to change. Basically, the pattern retrogrades the eastern ridge into the EPO/PNA regions. That said, the CFSv2 (which has a great MJO progression) is having none of it at 0z and 6z. @WxUSAFnoted(paraphrasing) in the MA forum that the MJO has not had a huge influence on weather of late over NA. I doubt this is a slam dunk, but for now...the PNA/EPO ridge looks to build and central and eastern Canada cool quickly in response. What will be interesting is whether NAO blocking builds back as the potential ridging out west wanes later this month. @Holston_River_Rambler, it does look like a repeating pattern similar to November in many ways. As always at this range, huge grains of salt. 10-11 is a nice analog so far.
  2. Carvers Gap
    And thanks for letting me duck-in for a sec. You all do a great job over here!!!! I read it pretty much 3-4x per day.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Not sure. The only reason I noticed it was that I had just looked at the CPC site. I double and triple checked to make sure I was actually getting the same model. Maybe the run changed? Modeling is defninitely back-and-forth w/ MJO plots regardless. We have speculated in the TN forum that maybe the colder surface SSTs (near the equatorial dateline recently) are preventing convection from reaching phase 8 - I have not looked at those SSTs this week. The CFSv2 is waffling almost with each run. It looks like phase 7 and then progresses to 8 OR it stalls in 7 and rotates back(just looking at the NA 500mb look as evidence). The 12z GEFS and 12z GEPS do like more like the PNA begins to build out west late in their runs. I am not holding my breath w/ either an optimal or sub-optimal solution though. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/emom.shtml
  4. Carvers Gap
    Odd. What I see is quite different than the above graphic. This is what I am getting when I go to the site. That is not a terrible progression(if it verifies), even though low amplitude.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is crazy. Getting a little Cherokee Lake snow band as we speak. It set up over JC last night.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Long Range Discussion: The CFSv2 today (both runs) is woefully out of sync w/ its MJO(goes into 8 if I remember correctly). The GFS and GEPS and Euro Weeklies show a PNA/EPO ridge building out West. I don't think this is a slam dunk as evidenced by the CFS today. However, until modeling settles on the MJO progression...we are going to see haywire solutions. Additionally, when modeling is behaving erratically....extremely cold air in the LR can cause that. Remember when modeling lost the cold, found it, kicked the can, and then it came gangbusters this week? I do. Similar look for mid January. I can't tell if winter is departing(unlikely) or reloading(likely) with any certainty....
  7. Carvers Gap
    The WC is now -22F. That is rarified air for me.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for posting this. If we can keep this from jogging north, this is the old school clipper that used to follow big storms. If real, it wouldn't surprise me to see amounts higher as the ground is frozen and the air mass would support mega ratios.
  9. Carvers Gap
    For posterity. Wind chills....
  10. Carvers Gap
    I was just over in JC. Low level snow squalls are pushing through.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 18z is an extreme look - right off the North Pole. We may be in a repeating pattern as Holston mentioned earlier. Not sure at this point.
  12. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS has the return to cold inside of 300hours. Massive PNA. It will change some I am sure at this range. It is just a good example of where this could go if that ridge pops. That gigantic banana high setup is money.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Blackouts lifted.... https://www.wjhl.com/news/local/brightridge-implements-15-minute-rolling-blackouts/
  14. Carvers Gap
    LOL....
  15. Carvers Gap
    Would not shock me. With that much warm air in the middle of winter....things could fire.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has the clipper. I would prefer it a tad south of our location. It is running the KY/TN border might allow it to tick north out of our forum area as things get closer. Still, it is far more formidable than it was on modeling a few days/runs ago. Something to watch.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Dealying w/ some maps 300+ at the operational level, so proceed at your own risk. Source regions are an issue by the 5th, but likey that gets rectified quite quickly if that ridge continues to retrograde slightly westward. You can see the fairly big flip at 500mb. That is not split flow in the second image, but a stalled slp over the Four Corners. It could be real or feedback...both make sense. Either way, I do actually think split flow develops IF the pattern evolves like that.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And I think modeling doesn't know where the MJO is at times. Generally, and I haven't looked this season, you can just tell by looking at where convection is. I can tell that modeling is struggling w/ the MJO, because the plots are all over the place. Just looking, 12z modeling is wanting to quickly break down eastern ridging and retrograde those AN heights into the West. We will see if that holds. If so, that tells me the MJO is probably sneaking into low amplitude 8.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I love this type of weather, absolutely love it.
  20. Carvers Gap
    During January '85, the light went out in our well house, and we also had pipes freeze under our house. It seems like all we did was thaw things out and fix pipes.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies 46 day snow maps (ensemble and control)...Plenty of snow pack (even some which is erased by the thaw right after Christmas) should be present and allow for cold to funnel southeastward. You can kind of see the various storm tracks - very Nina-esque. The tracks are Plains-Midwest as primary for snow and Apps as a secondary.
  22. Carvers Gap
    And the weeklies last night had this for almost the same time frame 8th-15th. The Weeklies eventually remove the HB block altogether after this and then by the end of January begin to show a rebuilding of the -NAO...
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 flipped back to a colder east. Modeling is waffling a bit w/ the PNA ridge. The pattern is either, IMHO, going to retrograde that Hudson Bay block into a PNA ridge or leave it over the HB. I can't decide which I like better. HB blocks in the middle of winter do deliver the goods more often than not. IMHO, that HB block is going to retrograde into a PNA ridge, but if it doesn't that isn't a terrible look. Here is Jan 9-16th....
  24. Carvers Gap
    Wind chills across MRX...
  25. Carvers Gap
    It is at range but the 6z RGEM has a pretty healthy clipper for Tuesday. The NAM does as well, but it will amp everything at that range...so toss until in range. I trust the RGEM a little more at that range.
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