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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, man! Modelling seems to be centering on Jan5-10 for a return to the eastern trough and significant PNA ridge. Let's if it doesn't show a pretty big drop soon as modeling is picking up on a fairly decent reshuffle.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I agree w/ ya'll. If there is ever a system which could over perform, it is this one.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I think at this point it is just coming down to the resolution of modeling as to where the shadow sets up. The overall message across modeling is dampening out precip once it crosses the Plateau, especially between the Plateau and I-75/81. Where that happens is probably microclimate climatology unique to this event. I would hate to be in MRX's shoes right now in terms of amounts. The system to our west is often over-performing in real time, but modeling is pretty meh in E TN. If MRX puts numbers out which are too high, loads of people will change travel plans. Then, if nothing happens, everyone is gonna be hot. OTH, if they go low and this thing over-performs like it has been....they catch people traveling on the roads. My gut says MBY is gonna see 0.5-1.0." East of I-81 could see 1-2" w/ bands(southwest to northeast) seeing slightly more. If this thing over performs and we get 2-3" of snow in the eastern valley, travel problems are going to be huge on Saturday w/ people traveling for Christmas Eve. I think the real story will be the rapid temperature drop and high winds IMBY. I hope the lights stay on....
  4. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, snow or no-snow(and I said this yesterday), I am going to stay up and watch this thing blow through. It is not very often that we get to see a front as powerful as this one is modeled.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And like clockwork, the 12z GFS has this....and no, I hadn't looked at it until after I posted above. I did look at the 3k Nam. The trend is less over E TN w/ the band re-intensifying as it gets east of I-81(sorry, I said I-26 earlier...prob more than once!). We have seen Cuba shred more than one intense hurricane. The Plateau is a formidable obstacle for systems. That said, E TN could bust high. This is one of the setups which could do it.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Models have pretty consistently allowed the system to lose moisture over eastern areas, though some re-intensification is also a consistent component in NE TN east of I-26. @TellicoWxsaid it best a few pages ago, I don't think modeling is handling this well at the surface. This front is FAST moving, intense, and it is thus very difficult for modeling to find the rain/snow line due to that. I do think E TN will have less precip to deal w/ as compared to middle and western areas(north of I-40). I think the cold makes it over the Plateau just fine. I think downsloping is legit for those closest to the eastern slopes of the Plateau. Conversely w/ big coastals, folks in the shadow of the western slopes of the Apps will be the first to tell you that downsloping w/ big storms is legit. How much downsloping is anyone's guess. Buckle up. Gonna be a wild ride. This is a strong, dynamic system which is going to likely hold some surprises.
  7. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I just ignore it on modeling. Being on the river and the EB, we are fighting dynamics most aren't. LOL. That said, modeling is often woefully wrong here. JC should get more w/ this set-up. There is DEFINITELY a rain shadow here w/ this angle of approach. But one thing I do watch is sometimes E TN does fill in w/ system like this. I think 0.5" to 1.5" is pretty reasonable. I am having a blast tracking this though. I am gonna set the alarm and watch this front blast through tomorrow night. Truly, I hope I have power. Losing power would be fun for about ten minutes....and then no wifi or electricity for days would be pretty awful. I am definitely worried about power loss with these winds.
  8. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC appears to have come somewhat to the table.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I kind of hold to the idea that Canada does a really good job of making its own cold. We just need "normal" temps in January to score. The -NAO will be responsible for this cold shot. If the STJ had been active, we would have seen a pretty massive storm in the East. Some modeling suggests it returns later in January. The ideal game plan is +PNA followed by the -NAO. That is on the table. I still hold out a little hope for Dec 27th-28th. That said, climatology really just does not favor December here(but it has been good during the last 10-15 years). I am good with periodic cold shots for the next ten weeks. We can score with that. Honestly, if this is the start of winter(and not and '89 end which I don't think it is), we will look back on December as a fun start.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Man, if we could get that to connect w/ some cold...........................
  11. Carvers Gap
    Sounds about right or just prior. Modeling is showing the second week in January switching to a decent PNA. If one accounts for modeling kicking the can, mid-month would be about right. If no can kicking, I might guess something in the 7th-10th range...and us actually beginning to track that system around the New Year. The end of the 18z GEFS is beginning the transition to an eastern trough. The operational flirted with that occurring much sooner. It really depends on which model is handling the MJO the best. The GEFS EXT this evening had a similar transition but maybe 2-3 days later.
  12. Carvers Gap
    If we had 5-6" of snow on the ground w/ this air mass, we would make a run at the all time record low.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And not to overkill one run of the LR GFS, but that is split flow under that PNA ridge to boot.
  14. Carvers Gap
    It cuts off a low in the southwest or the flip to colder would happen much quicker IMO. Looks like the date(multiple models and not just the GFS) for the next cold pattern begins around Jan5th(slightly early if that cutoff kicks out of the Four Corners a bit quicker).
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS, at range FWIW, is popping a massive PNA ridge after d10.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Digging through this afternoon's teleconnections, it does looks like the Pacific will drive the next cold/cool shot maybe around Jan5th. Then, another warm interlude, then the -NAO takes a swing after that.
  17. Carvers Gap
    @Wurbus, if that map below isn't worthy of a thread....I don't know what is.
  18. Carvers Gap
    It is possible we could get downsloped west of 75 and 81. It happens with big coastal storms but the opposite side of the valley. I would be really surprised if anything slowed this front down. I have been monitoring web cams on the front range today. Even the folks in those areas are impressed.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Can anyone tell if there would be lightning w those bands just east of Nashville on the GFS 18z?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Just eyeballing, the Happy Hour run of the GFS looks a bit more robust mid-state.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Wow, that is a big analog. It does look like a reloading pattern. The 12z CFSv2 has that. I really like 10-11 as my analog. If I had a wishful analog....raindance would be it. I was thinking today that maybe this wasn't our only bout of sever cold this winter w/ so much HL blocking showing up. Many forget that some of these really cold winters had very warm interludes.
  22. Carvers Gap
    If many get an inch or two of snow.....you get them both. Honestly, with as wild as this is about to get(tropical storm force winds and sharp temp drop)....the thread will deliver.
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro trended south. Nice hit from the Plateau westward and north of I-40.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Sheridan, WY...I am noticing many roads in Wyoming are getting closed as we speak.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has the clipper after the front this weekend.
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