Carvers Gap

If these have already been posted, my apologies. To me, modeling doesn't seem a lot different than yesterday. The problem is that modeling just can't predict all of the chaotic bands of snow which develop. They may be well having trouble with the jet streak. The slightest difference in that feature may be causing the model swings - just a guess/hypothesis to be tested.

Just check the NMB, and that looks like what MRX is using. It lags by one model run, meaning it uses the blend from the previous suite which was the 0z one. The 12z blend should be higher. Again, that is the right call. It is easy to adjust should models continue those significant adjustments. Plus, it is a Saturday morning when commutes are low.

That said....the 6z runs for TRI, some of them have been huge. Nice trends for NE TN at 6z. Let's see if we can actually hold onto those.

Looks like modeling is bumping up totals at TRI. I am assuming that MRX derived those WSWs from the 0z run. About half of the model runs(during the past 3-4 days) are leaving less snow up this way comparatively to other locals. TRI is on the eastern envelope of the storm totals. Those shifted slightly eastward at 6z. They can easily upgrade or downgrade a WWA...so not a bad call on their part. My guess is they will wait for another suite before thinking about changes. Again, good call as modeling seems to be on-again and off-again. Should the models hold to the bigger totals at 12z, I would think there is potential for an upgrade. Interestingly, I don't think the WSW have verified (generally speaking) in NE TN all winter. So, understandably the winter trend this winter likely makes them skittish - it does me as well.

18z Euro with basically the same look BTW...just the "less precip" look from 12z. Basically, same run with no big changes. Sorry, that earlier post might have sounded like something changed. Not really...

The 18z Euro continues with a strung out look where the front runner low climbs the coast and washes out the pattern behind it and flattens the next, main storm a bit due to lack of separation. I can't find that look on other modeling. It was not on the Euro yesterday at this time. It went OTS.

MRX mentions a strong jet streak. We may just have our own forcing. Good point.

18z RGEM drops the HAMMER!

Convection to our south could cut off moisture transport, so that is something to watch as well. @Daniel Boone, are you seeing any evidence that could happen?

I am just going to hug the 12k for MBY. Just a 1.7-9.5" range of accumulations on the NAMs for 18z over TRI. LOL. I will gladly take a blend of the 3k and 12k!

3K NAM says @John1122 is gonna feel like he is living in the Sierra Nevadas with 20" of snow!

Monster run of the NAM incoming. NE TN will like this one. Well, pretty much the entire forum area.

Bumped up at 12z. 2-4” region wide. 18z should be better or even much better. I think @TellicoWxsaid that it is derived from the runs 6 hours earlier. So, 18z should be pulled from the 12z suite. And by the way, where is Tellico? Hope all is good!

This is shaping up to have a very traditional inland runner to Nor'Easter track. The big NE cities are involved at 12z.

Yeah, that is right. I remember that now. @PowellVolz, strike my earlier comment. @John1122is correct. That is the main difference.

Let me check. Seems like generally the 12 suite of global models was a slight tick slower, but now since you ask, I am not sure if the Euro was slower or not. I have looked at so many maps, I can't remember. Did you think it was faster? Overall, tracks(other than the NAM) looked solid.

Plateau looks to be money. John, Shocker, and Co should rack up. I think the Euro is under doing things. NAM might be a bit too juiced. Maybe blend the Euro, RGEM, and GFS and that is probably a good solution.

Starting to see the mountains of NC involved for both the Euro and Canadian runs....meaning we have some wiggle room on those models. edit

As @John1122notes, the Euro has a fantastic look. However, it has less snow. It is an improvement over 6z, but is lacking it seems in precip. Nice track and maybe even a little wiggle room...

IDK, that is a pretty good run. Looks similar or better to 6z.

It sent a slp in front of the main low. Prior, that went off the coast. Good pass, but a new variation.

12z Euro is rollling. Unless I am mistaken, it is an improvement.

Textbook for eastern forum areas.

Yeah, agree. This may be a deal that as soon as the heavier rates hit, the snow flips over and just rips.

Chattanooga folks, another good run.