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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Good score right there!
  2. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 continues to waffle with almost every run regarding whether a trough can take hold just prior to the 10th(and hold through most of the month). The EPS, GEPS, GEFS, GFS operational....all look decent for a return to seasonal or colder weather by the 10th-ish. Again, I think the MJO forecast is prob the culprit. Please sign the waiver when discussions about the long range begin - LOL.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Thank for the obs. That definitely helps as I am selfishly(prob unrealistically) hoping it manages to unexpectedly get over the Plateau. Yeah, I managed to get in a run yesterday. But DEFINITELy going to have to do some work after two great Christmas dinners yesterday. LOL.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The LR pattern looks reasonably good. We may well fight some zonal issues(there is another!) as the PNA isn't overly strong early on. Maritime flow blasts right through it. That said, the pattern at 500mb could possibly deliver normal temps for January...and that is plenty good. Still a nice storm signal between say the 7th and 10th.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Looks like Smyrna, Nashville, West Nashville, and. Clarksville are reporting light snow. Not sure that it holds together for NE TN as modeling shows it Fallon apart. Here’s to hoping for some mood flakes though!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Anyone in west TN or middle have clipper observations? I will be interested if the snow is reaching the ground.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Told ya'll not to sleep on that clipper. WWAs up in eastern Arkansas, west TN, northern MS, and western KY. Nearly every major cold shot for me as a kid had a clipper right behind it.
  8. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Suppression. Northwest jog. Cold/dry pattern. Wet/rainy pattern. Warm nose. Down slope. Kick the can. Best accums are always outlier runs. MJO. IO convection. Convection in the Gulf. Model loses the storm: OTS. Cold gets stuck on the Plateau. Low in the Lakes.....
  9. Carvers Gap
    Goes without saying. All caveats apply. I usually don’t list the long list of ways it can’t snow.
  10. Carvers Gap
    A gradient look is usual money here during January.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Sign me up for what the 18z GEFS is cooking after Jan5th. A PNA forms while still holding some of the HB block. This allows for an east/west storm track which is suppressed and just cold enough.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has decent storm signal Jan7th-ish. Slides the slp under TN and then up the coast. Long way out and just spitballing.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And looking back on the GFS struggles, those wild swings were possibly due to the anomalous cold in the patter during the long range. I do see models flipping around quite a bit right now. I would guess another cold intrusion is likely. The CFSv2 is all over the place.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The GFS seems to have returned to some sort of normal state. Let's see if the new upgrade is as good as last winter's at being able to sniff out storms and cold at range. The 18z GFS operational and the 12z GEPS ensemble are hinting strongly at cold air intrusion by around Jan 8th w/ the 500mb pattern transitioning w/ a cold front around the 5th. The 18z GFS again is hinting at snow showers during that time frame. We have the clipper tomorrow which Nashville already has a SWS for and some of western KY in a WWA. I wouldn't be surprised if we weren't beginning to track a new system around the New Year - meaning we can "see" on modeling the next opportunity to track (likely second week of Jan or early third). So far, there is no can kicking, but that wouldn't surprise me. There has been some question as to whether the Jan 8th system can break the ridge over the east and push it NE(maybe forming a new block over Greenland or pseudo block).
  15. Carvers Gap
    SWS out of Nashville... ...Accumulating Snowfall Possible Across Mid State on Monday... A quick moving storm system will approach later tonight and move across mid state region on Monday. Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected with a possible change to light rain showers across locations around and west of I-65 Corridor during late afternoon hours as temperature rise above freezing. As temperatures lower below freezing again during evening hours on Monday night, isolated snow showers will continue before tapering off from southwest to northeast as evening hours progress. Total snowfall accumulations will range from less than a tenth of an inch southwestern portions of mid state region to around one quarter to around one half of an inch for locations around and north of I-40, especially locations west of I-24. This may cause some additional slick spots here or there on area roadways. However,no significant widespread travel issues are expected as of this time.
  16. Carvers Gap
    We don’t even need a real split...just a disruption. Often a true split results in cold going to Asia or the NA West. The current cold is due to it being jostled earlier this month IMO. A true split is often chaotic. But the SPV and TPV, excluding the current time frame and for the upcoming couple of weeks, has been disrupted enough to produce the NAO which caused record or near record cold. I am guessing that repeats in a less extreme way. But that is only a guess. It will be interesting to see. At this point, lots of factors in play in addition to any strat warming - climatology, MJO, snowpack over NA, rising QBO, maybe a new NAO decadal cycle???, impending Nino....
  17. Carvers Gap
    I think my working definition of an SSW is a heating of the strat which causes a disruption in the SPV. Sometimes that has no effect on the TPV. Sometimes it disrupts it normal position. This month we have seen the disruption begin in the TPV and work up if I remember correctly. We may be getting ready to see that again. The upcoming warm episode is likely due to the TPV centering and getting its footing back. With the Pacific so hostile, we are prob going to need some help. Without the disruption and consequential NAO this month....we would have likely been torch city otherwise as evidenced by the upcoming warmup. December was a textbook Niña of extremes though. The 12z ensembles all looked like they were making a transition to either a PNA/EPO ridge and/or HB block. That results in the SE ridge being abated. The SER presence on modeling is strong. It will come back as a standing wave every time the block relaxes. As of now I lean base warm with several extended bouts of cold. But unlike December, January’s climatology favors snow. We will see.
  18. Carvers Gap
    JB says this one is bottom up. That should result in a quicker response in the troposphere. At the point I think I have SSW stuff figured out, I realize I don't! LOL.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, those things are feast or famine. I have heard similar though. Just kind of seems like our year in terms of cold. Get that STJ lit, and things could be good.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Sitting at 10F at 8:30 on this Christmas morning. The wind chill is -2F We still have a light dusting of snow in the shadows. The North Fork of the Holston is trying to freeze over. 28 for a high today will feel like a heat wave. We are gonna be pushing 70 in early January before returning to normal or slightly above by late in the second week. That is going to feel tropical.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Just reading the MA forum tea leaves...maybe the STJ stays active. Modeling is still all over the place this morning in regards to timing, intensity, and duration of the next cold snap. It ranges from seasonal to extreme cold to just slightly AN. The bouncing around may be a hint that more intense cold is entering the pattern.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yep. Some severe outbreaks are embedded in many really good winters.
  23. Carvers Gap
    As we are about to find out, if we hadn't had the -NAO....temps would have been in the 70s for much of December. It just saved our bacon.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the North Fork above its confluence w/ the S Fork is full of HUGE chunks of ice. I would say by Weds AM it is gonna be almost frozen over.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Always allow for kicking the can down the road. Looks to me like the transition to colder begins Jan5-10 at 500mb...and then really gets going around the 12th if modeling is close to being correct. The 12z CFSv2 flipped back to cold for that time frame in what would be another extreme episode. What we really want for fun winter games is to trap the vortex under a broad based banana high in which the EPO/PNA connects to AN heights in the Davis Straits. I still would say I am concerned this flips warm and holds, but for now...modeling looks good. Below would bring it:
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