Carvers Gap

3K NAM went nuts at 0z.

Good find. Looks like the west side of this has filled back in and is a little more organized. Send me some thunder, and I am good for the season.

Light to moderate snow has resumed here. Ground is turning white. Not the huge rates of TYS, but probably the best we have seen all winter. There is a mix of fine flakes and medium size flakes. There is almost no wind. edit: temp is 33.1

Yeah, I think that is out the window for TRI. 1-2" is reasonable for TRI at this point. Looks like a mesoscale low rotated up the spine of the Apps and into TRI. I thought it was downslope, but it originated south and rotated over the mountains. Maybe we get some wrap around here. It was almost like being under the eye of a hurricane. It will likely cut precip totals here significantly. Hopefully I am wrong. Glad to see the Knoxville folks getting some great thunder snow though!!!

Snow here has let up significantly. Dry air working northward. Hopefully, it works back and we get an inch or two before the back side slides through.

Moderate snow in west Kingsport. Temps is 35 and has fallen 17 degrees in about two hours.

Temp has crashed to 36. We have rain/slee/snow coming down. Pretty impressive temp drop. I am on the west end of TRI folks. So the rest of you in this area, it is coming your way.

Sleet mixing in w/ the rain here in Kingsport. Temp is 39F.

Man, you all had a fantastic season. Super glad for you all. Middle TN was LONG overdue for a good one.

Temps here have dropped to 44.2. That is down about 8 degrees in about 45 mins or so, maybe less.

5z HRR is showing a decent little increase.

Tomorrow night....

For posterity....updated w/ middle TN WSWs and blizzard warnings for the Shenandoah mountains.

TRI and Chattanooga trending late. Let's see if that works out. Thanks for the map!

18z GEFS

I told, ya'll the RGEM looked awesome. Fire up the heart attack gif from Sanford and Son for me ! LOL. Kuchera looks insane!

18z RGEM looks really good for TRI peeps.

Check this out! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 353 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 TNZ015>017-042-044-046-VAZ001-005-006-008-120600- /O.UPG.KMRX.WW.Y.0009.220312T0600Z-220312T2200Z/ /O.EXB.KMRX.WS.W.0005.220312T0600Z-220312T2200Z/ Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington TN- Northwest Carter-Lee-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Rose Hill, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 353 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Snow and ice covered roadways are possible, mainly across the secondary roadways, bridges and overpasses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow combined with the blustery winds will greatly reduce visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

WSWs have been hoisted for the NE TN.

This feels like Jan 1-2 where it was so warm and the hammer dropped the next day, and it snowed. What is modeled would fit the seasonal pattern of extreme warmth to frigid. This is like living out West during June!

@AMZ8990, how close are you to that band in west TN that the RGEM is depicting. That could be a good thump!

My "go to" short range model is the RGEM which is basically that one.

If a system is going to bust high, spring is the time. For five years I lived in JC, seemed like many March snows over-performed. Not saying that will happen, but the proximity to the warm waters of the GOM is good. One other thing I meant to mention in relation to the jet streak being tough to model and that causing variations...I do wonder if when the precip is lower if there is convection along the GOM. That will shut off the spigot in a hurry.

Lock that in. That little blue hole over NE TN is my house - no lie. So now, we know that is right. LOL. Man, glad you are posting.