Carvers Gap

Pretty amazing how quiet the tropics are this year(so far). Just looking at the LR, that might change in August.

LOL. The past couple of months must be what a wx forum in the desert looks like. It's hot and dry. I'll be back when it rains again.............................................................................................

La Nina summers are the worst. We have picked up some more rain during the past 2-3 weeks after an incredibly long spell without a drop. Even with all of the rain, it is still pretty easy to see how stressed the yards and plants have been prior. And yeah, what is coming for west TN is scorching hot it appears.

Since my last posts about precip, we have received a out 2” of desperately needed rain IMBY.

The 0z GFS is very warm late in the run. Most cool downs have not verified. We may, however, get a slight reprieve here before descending into the next heat wave later this month.

Cosgrove mentioned on FB that a pattern shakeup was possible in about a month. If I read it correctly, the wheels might be starting to turn on that now, but will take some time for the current pattern to decay. We have been roasting here. That would be a welcome change, even if temporary. On a positive note, it has been raining for about three hours here. Feels a bit foreign to hear rain falling for that long!

You all under a sever T-storm warning?

Finally, rain!!! My yard is fried, but it will green up some with this. Big thunderstorm complex over TRI heading SE. Loads of rain here. I would say we are somewhere between 0.5-0.75".

Yeah, the return to moderation was a total mirage. When there is heat modeled for Texas, it usually finds a way into our area. The furnace is on with no end in sight. This summer is going to be remembered as a hot one. A good chunk of the forum area is now showing up on the drought monitor. I have zero idea how my area is not. I have had about .50 of an inch of rain in three weeks. We had one rainy-sh day and one stray shower which barely got the dirt wet. My yard is fried. I have quite watering it. At this point, I am just watering the garden.

Keep that heat on the GFS in Texas!!! If that comes eastward, we are gonna bake. Wowza at the 12z. They are almost out of colors.

We will cross our fingers and hope this doesn't come to pass, but the ingredients are beginning to come together for a whopper of a heat weave around mid-July. The position of hp is in an optimal position for a classic heat wave over the SE late in those runs. The 6z GFS, while certainly at range, is an extreme event after 300. The GEFS and GEPS have been hinting for the past few runs that heat will build into the Plains, and then work eastward. We WANT the EPS to be right.

Yeah, the rainfall which we received here is basically used up. Nina summers are the worst. I hold out hope that the ridge will hold out west through August. When it comes eastward again, it is gonna get HOT again!

Same here, Met. Much respect for you as well. We are cool!

Yeah, I had zero idea our discussion was headed in the direction of climate change. As a generality, we have kept those conversations on the Climate Change forum. I am not having the discussion with you nor will I be preached to about it. I am merely stating that we have had more big snows in recent years IMBY (on this side of the Apps) during November/December than when I was growing up. I noted the mountains were different. Honestly, I would go back and give you dates/accumulations from those storms, but I don't think that is the discussion you were looking for. For me this discussion is over. I don't appreciate getting baited into this type of discussion. Besides, this is the spring/summer long range discussion anyway.

December 2020 was a snowy month here. First year La Nina. November 2021 was ~3 BN at TRI last year. Overall, I would say middle and west TN won't complain about the last two winters - STELLAR! NE TN and the the Apps have gotten the screw job for sure. Again, La Nina is a pain here though I do think I like weak La Nina's as there is more to track on this side of the Apps. It is abysmal on your side quite often. Of note, and @John1122can answer this better than I, Decembers seem to be a bit more snowier of late than they used to be, especially in the valley. It used to never snow here prior to Christmas. It has not been uncommon of late. Seems like winters tend to start a bit earlier and end earlier.

Last December was just ridiculous, but November here was BN. The year prior, December 2020 was BN. Usually if we have La Nino one or both of those months fall below normal at TRI. Our last two winter seasons started early, but quickly moderated to AN as La Nina just went bonkers.

To this point in June, TRI averages 3.24" of rain. Prior to the rain today, they only had 0.92" for the entire month! That is like living in the desert.

We got about 0.50" since last night. Everything is so brown, not sure how much it is going to help. It did give us a break in watering the garden today! Thankful for that!

Looks like the eastern ridge complex will be sent westward for a couple of weeks minimum. With it being a diminishing Nina, still have to think a very extended summer is in order. I will GLADLY enjoy being wrong if it isn't. Either way, the upper 80s for real feel are better than 105F

First measurable rainfall IMBY in roughly eighteen days. Tied for the driest my yard has ever been until today. Finally, some showers today. It is not nearly enough, but we will take anything at this point.

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters. Maps above look about right. I tend to lean with John on this. The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter. That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb. What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter. That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino. Timing is rarely that perfect. Initial thoughts for winter(temps): September- October: HOT! DRY! November: BN to seasonal December: Seasonal January: Seasonal to above February: Much above(unless Nino kicks in early) Snow: AN west of the Cumberlands. Normal for TYS and Chattanooga. Slightly BN for TRI. Mountains much BN. Overall precip: Crap shoot Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June. In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter. This year is not going to be one of those years! It will almost certainly have to be modified. The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter. It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada. The Nina is on shaky ground. The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter. That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely. The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow. La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts. We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area. But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather. Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April. I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August. I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks. WARNING: This is highly likely gonna change. This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter. ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters. It is not right now. My confidence in the above might be 40%.

Got back from Oregon 12 days ago. Not a drop since we have been back. Everything is getting pretty much fried in this area. So little rain.

Cosgrove thinks there is a flip to neutral or weak Nino by midwinter. Looks like the ENSO forecast is showing an abrupt change around January. He also noted that the current Nina is sort of choppy. He pointed out that subsurfaces temps in some regions are quite warm(right below the colder water). I feel a bit more confident that next spring and summer will be seasonal to BN. My comments...The QBO, which has been strongly negative, would appear to be set to turn positive. There are some conflicting signals out there re: winter. I tend to favor a cold start, and then wx chaos as the ENSO flips. Seasonal forecasts are pretty much a crapshoot...this winter may be a monster crapshoot. It seems when we have variation in the pattern during the winter season, we have our best chances. I would think that is likely this winter.

Rainfall has been doing the splits over my region. We have had no measurable rainfall since last Sunday. We have only had one day of measurable rain during the last two weeks. Getting very, very dry here.

Evidently my idea of moderation during the last ten days of June is....the upper 90s! LOL. Really strong work on my part. I agree with Jeff's comment about the heat looking more spread out. But man, the adjustment from running in the mid 60s in Oregon to running in the mid 90s is BRUTAL! We were pretty acclimated when we left, but having to start over now. Yesterday was truly awful. Some of us ran in the morning. It was 80 degrees and 82% humidity. It was like running in a sauna. The afternoon was worse. I am pretty sure the real feel on my phone wx app is too jacked up. It was 106. NWS had us at 99 for the real feel. To quote Talladega Nights, "I'm on fire!" Oregon was a blast. We did the area from Coos Bay southward to the Redwoods. We worked out of one town in the middle of those. Wx Dad dropped the ball on a side trip. We rolled out of Eugene on day one and headed to Crater Lake prior to shipping over to the coast. The Cascades were awesome - just huge trees. That is every bit Bigfoot country. One of mine has studied CL and is a huge fan! So we were all excited. Got there, and it started raining. And the entire crater was fogged in!!!! I should have known better. Still it was something to behold to see the 5-7' snow fields near the rim. Some of the buildings were still covered to the second floor. They get ~550" of snow seasonally. I had to look that up to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. Anyway, we headed for the coast. We got to the place we were renting that night and there were 35+mph winds sustained. Gale advisories were posted. I have no idea what they were gusting to, but the winds were shaking the house. You could hear the ocean rumbling. It was awesome sleeping with the wind whistling through the windows, rain pelting the glass, and the roar of the ocean outside. If you remember the scene in Harry Potter (Sorcerer's Stone) where Harry is taken to the island by the Dursley's and Hagrid shows up - that kind of wx. Next morning, we woke up and it was over. The winds did return later in the trip as the atmospheric river event unfolded(that same event eventually caused the flooding in Yellowstone). We had those big waves where the wind was whipping the spray off the crest. Last couple of days we went to the NCAA Track and Field Championships at Hayward - bucket list right there. The Vols finished 3rd in the country on the men's side(best finish since 2022). We rain on Pre's Trail for 3 days during the trip. On big dude came rolling by in his Oregon gear(and I mean rolling). We quickly looked him up on Google. Pretty sure he was the collegiate record holder in the mile. LOL. We ate a lot of good food. This was our first real vacation since the pandemic. Evidently, one of our kids didn't get properly checked-in on the flight from San Fran to Eugene. That slight error would cause cascading issues on the return home. On the plus side, we did get to meet every, single family who boarded the plane (as we stood and waited for the ticket issue to get cleared up...)....not once but twice. But I can't complain, we made both connection and our luggage showed up on time. TN wx while we were gone was outstanding. The heat hammer dropped as our return flight touched down in Atlanta. Time to take the coats off and turn the A/C up to full. I don't know how the Atlanta guys do traffic there every day BTW. I get irritated if I don't make it through downtown Kingsport in two lights(Kingsport folks know what I am talking about).