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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    If the GFS(all runs today) is correct, the trough will set up shop in the West and just roll periodic cold fronts through the East. I am definitely dialing back expectations now.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I think we are going to see the -NAO hook into the SER for a 5-7 day time frame before mid-month. That should open the door for very warm temps. But it should be noted, that when the SER has connected into the NAO before, we have see the PV get hammered and split. I think right now there are so many dynamics in play, it is just too many plates for models to handle. That said, the potential for an NAO infused eastern ridge is growing. If the EPS is right, that should retrograde westward fairly quickly. The GFS/GEFS may have scored a coup on this feature.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And one last post within a flurry of posts, a bit of a SER is not a terrible thing w/ a block. We want the STJ/southern branch to attack the block, and not just get suppressed to Cuba. I suspect in coming days, we see that boundary get set quite far to the south.
  4. Carvers Gap
    What we see above is slider city which is one of the best ways we get snow for the entire forum area(E TN also gets snow from Miller A types, and middle/west score from Apps cutters and Miller B variations). How suppressed will that storm track be? IDK. As noted by a met in the MA forum, modeling often will correct further south as the event gets closer which is opposite of "normal trending" which is north and west. Where that boundary sets up is important. I think we will see the boundary initially set-up over the Ohio Valley. Whether that pushes further south will depend greatly on how much the SER fights back. Oh yeah, the SER....it is present. However, if one looks at the EPS d10-15, the block(and maybe double block) wipes it our for a TBD time frame.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Here are the 5day(day 10-15)means for the 0z EPS....only fly in the ointment is BN precip. Impressive for 5 day means. Now, sometimes BN precip can actually reflect a snowy pattern. Looks to me like the mid latitudes will feel the colder effects of the block around Dec 12th. Modeling has bounced all over the place with trying to nail down the initial cold front, but ensembles generally favor that date. With the initial cold being pushed back several days, the actual norms a colder as we are looking at mid-December vs early December. This would be a pretty awesome score by modeling. I feel like wx modeling will have nailed this from 3-4 weeks out(Weeklies).
  6. Carvers Gap
    Overnight ensembles continue to advertise a big switch between hour 240-260 which is just outside the 10day window. I would expect to see more winter storms than I am seeing in fantasy land, but I also know that modeling has extreme difficulty handling the block. The EPS is nearly perfect. Remember that GFS run from many days ago that hooked the PNA ridge into the NAO block and trapped cold under it? It had that, but the source region cold was not crazy cold - but probably cold enough. That look normal delivers suppressed flow w/ some northwest flow components.
  7. Carvers Gap
    That is pretty amazing. We ended up +2.9, but we had several days of more than +15 and a +21.
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS and seasonal CFS2(last run before December hits) is progressively cold with each passing week.
  9. Carvers Gap
    For better or worse, I have been riding with ensembles of late. I think you all are going to see some upslope at the very least.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Understandably, I don't think modeling(especially operationals) are handling the near record block which is forming.
  11. Carvers Gap
    That is giving me great pause. LOL. I don't think they will but the GFS is trying to do this about half the time.
  12. Carvers Gap
    If we can steal some of January as cold, that is a victory. Probably allows for a thaw mid-month...and then we wait and see if Nina weakens enough to allow winter to come back. It didn't come back in 10-11. it didn't come back in 89-90. But it did come back in 95-96. and maybe 09-10?
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS moved back towards the EPS/GEPS solutions(getting the ridge out of the East in the LR). I still think the we are looking at 10-14 days before the cold really begins to push southward. If we can reel it in, some of us should have some chances at winter weather.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS, 0z GEPS, 6zGFS operational(can't see the ensemble quite yet)....look fairly textbook w/ the block east of the MS. Concern remains that the NAO could connect temporarily w/ the SE ridge, but if it does, I think that is very temporary. Right now, I want to see if modeling can hit a double....-NAO followed by and EPO/PNA ridge.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Gonna be close to paying off! LOL
  16. Carvers Gap
    To quote the announcer....the USA match has taken years off our lives. What a win. Pulisic was a warrior. Got the goal and is headed to the hospital after that winning goal.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks really good.
  18. Carvers Gap
    OTH, if the 6z CFSv2 is correct, we will all be crying uncle about mid January. That run flips from a massive -NAO to a massive EPO/PNA ridge. If I could draw-up a winter pattern, that would be it.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Not saying that is going to happen, but that is a complete reversal by the 12z GFS at the mid latitudes - complete. I don't think that verifies as the GFS is simply producing flavor-of-the-month runs every run. BUT, we have seen more than one strat split/SSW cause chaos in modeling.
  20. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, had this the other day. The 6zGFS continues to advertise a family significant "split" of the SPV 50mb and above. I noticed this, because the EPS Control briefly hooked the NAO into an eastern ridge. In the past, when I have seen this...that is a precursor to a split or at least significant jostling of the higher latitude pattern. With an early season block and SPV split underway(at the very least warming in the strat), modeling is going to struggle as evidenced by the wild model outcome of the 18z GFS yesterday. For now, the pattern looks relatively dry. That said, model mayhem is likely well underway. As a note of caution, recent SSWs/SPV splits have wrecked what looked like a good pattern on modeling in the long range. Now, in reality nothing was wrecked at all as that was what was going to happen regardless. I will say the SPV split/SSW looks to invoke a nearly immediate response at our latitude(sometimes we have to wait 2-3 weeks). That said, the worst of the cold may not arrive unit mid-month or just after. The actual pattern change which initiates an east based NAO begins in about 96 hours. That block will then retrograde in the 7-10 days which follow. So, the actual HL shuffle is within the 5 day window. It is the dominoes which fall due to this reshuffle which have to be ironed out.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Reminds me of this set-up from 2004.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I think w/ potential record AN heights in the area of Greenland....good luck to all models and may the odds be ever in their favor. It's Hunger Games time for modeling.
  23. Carvers Gap
    This has some elements of '89 in the pattern. As the NAO breaks down, we need the Pacific to jump right in like 10-11...
  24. Carvers Gap
    The Apps blizzard of '22 came from Nova Scotia.
  25. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Glad I wasn't the only one. That might be the most screwed up GFS run I have ever seen! I had to loop it backwards to make it look right. I am sure it will verify as it is messed-up(like on drugs).
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