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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is a great setup. Storm one sets the boundary, and storm two rides it. No idea if that is going to be the outcome, but it is nice to see some chances showing up on modeling. It sure beats multiple shades of red.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I like where this is heading. What we want is right on the boundary per the 12z CMC. I think we will see some bouts of bitter cold. That said, the front end of the cold outbreak or as it is retreating is the sweet spot.
  3. Carvers Gap
    But the 12z CMC does have a surprise....a little trick on Tropical Tidbits for the CMC - toggle over "MSLP and Precip" and not the frozen. You will be able to see the rest of the run quicker. Hint -> It's Miller time.
  4. Carvers Gap
    At162, it looks like the CMC splits the energy. Half goes through west TN, and the other half heads for the Piedmont. This is a similar conundrum that we have seen all winter. Modeling wants to cut, but also hints at inland runner potential. Ensembles will have to sort this out. Interesting for sure.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It is going to be interesting to see where this CMC run goes. At 126 it has a low along the southern TX coast and has not cut.
  6. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 12z ICON is an excellent look for E TN. The 12z GFS is back to a cutter and cold front passage.
  7. Carvers Gap
    For the first time in a while, I really don't have a ton of changes to my comments from yesterday evening. The medium and long range look cold....and stormy. The storm Sun/Mon is now depicted on both the 0z Euro/6z GFS to pass to our southeast. In fact, suppression is the concern in my mind today. We need that storm to turn NE and crank. For now, it is a trackable system for the mountains, SE KY, SW VA, W NC, and maybe even NE TN if trends continue to improve. I think we are looking at a legit possibility of very cold air dropping into the Plains and/or the Great Lakes after the 26th. Once there, the flow from the -EPO is going to try to send it SE. The SER will fight it, but this is a strong cold shot. This is the EPO's baby for the foreseeable future. There are continuing signs the NAO may try to fire, but as anyone knows who has been following this for some time, a -NAO is very hard to predict with accuracy at LR. What happens after the 31st? Well, just go look at the MJO plots this morning, and you tell me. 75% of them want to take the MJO into phase 3. Some loop it back into background phase 2/3 again. American modeling likes the warm tour. Plots are all over the place. As for which model is winning. IDK. I think we need to pay very close attention to the GFS and its trends. Shock. Why? If it goes colder during the next 48-72 hours, that tells us very cold temps are possibly about to enter the pattern in the medium and LR. It has had a very warm bias this winter....until it doesn't. And when that model switches cold, it is worth noting. I have watched it get colder over the past 24 hours, and will be very interested in where it goes now. The GEPS/CFSv2 have been quite good re: this increasingly likely pattern change. The 0z EPS, 0z GEPS, 6z GEFS, and 0z/6z CFSv2 are quite cold in the LR. Storm tracks. We haven't been able to talk about this winter very often. Spitballing and speculation. I think there is a likely chance that the primary track will shift from the lows cutting along the Ohio River Valley to cutting through the TN Valley, especially eastern valley. That brings middle and western areas of the forum area into play. However, I do think a possible secondary track will also be in play which is an inland runner track which helps E TN. I thought this was an interesting quote from Larry Cosgrove on Saturday: At some point, the drift toward a positive ENSO signature could shift the larger storms farther south. That would eradicate the frequent calls for the GFS model suite to pop up a ridge in Florida, which has not happened often anyway due the unstable nature of the global sea surface temperature anomaly regime. Anyway, lots of speculation in that post. Don't take it as fact, but more of putting hypotheticals out there to look at.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Good overnight trends for next weekend. Good overnight trends for cold returning.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The big change w/ the 18z GEFS is that it no longer is feeding back as much over the Four Corners d10+. The retrograde is the PV moving from the Great Lakes Region into the central Canadian Prairies - BIG difference. Let's hope that is just the beginning of good trends.
  10. Carvers Gap
    If this verifies(sign the waiver), that is a pretty huge pattern reversal...........
  11. Carvers Gap
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has (so far) followed the operational's lead. A piece of the PV is now in the southern Canadian prairies at d10.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has a lot of similarities to the 12z CFSv2.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Definite cold bias for sure. However, it has not been that cold in a while. That, in conjunction with ensembles trending colder, is of some interest.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Who knows if one run of the GFS means anything, but that is a total reversal d10+(and I mean total...replace troughs for ridges and ridges for troughs) at 18z. While not surprising at that range, it is impressive to see that change. That likely means the d10+ is not the foregone conclusion that it has had for days.
  16. Carvers Gap
    LOL. The 18z GFS went from SER being a problem to suppression in one run(referencing d10+).
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 18z from d11-13 is a complete reversal. Trough moves eastward, and the ridge is in the West. First time at 282 that the trough has made it into the east at 500mb that I can remember. It has basically been stuck in the Four Corners in the Southwest.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yep. That is actually fairly significant move by the operational. It has a ridge along the West coast, and cold is in the Plains and not locked over the Rockies. The cold front actually gets east of the Apps.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Pretty big move at 500 by the 18z GFS around d10.......
  20. Carvers Gap
    Very true. I think of that SE ridge is going to be key and if we can get a mechanism for that cold to surge eastward. I think we really want that cold in the Plains and not over the Rockies.
  21. Carvers Gap
  22. Carvers Gap
    Again, this is the stuff I don't share as often as I should. This is one extreme. Obviously, warmth is the other.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we have been dealing with cruddy source regions for two weeks(still managed and upslope event even though). One consistent variable among modeling is quite severe cold. If that cold chills Canada, modeling nailed that aspect from about 4 weeks. A deepening storm over the East could potentially send a lot of that eastward until the SER fights back. It could just park in the west and not move(GFS operation), but the MJO would argue that it comes eastward(maybe all of it per CMC). For me, I have been kind of conditioned during the past couple of winters to think the cold dumps west and won't move eastward or stalls on the Plateau. So, that could happen. But some of the historical winter patterns have the Rockies to the Apps cold. It has been a long time since that occurred, but having most of the Lower 48 cold is not without precedent. That said, the SER is definitely Nina climatology, so I think it shows. We just don't want a standing ridge as Jax aptly notes.
  24. Carvers Gap
    And meanwhile, if the 12z Euro is correct(or still just trending northwest which is likely), there is a trackable system this weekend or shortly thereafter if the 12z GEFS is correct.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I don't think we see a +PNA anytime soon, but it would be welcomed if it was. I think we see the -EPO force Canadian cold into the Rockies and then strong cold fronts usher it eastward. The EPO could very well be the mechanism which forces the cold into the Lower 48. The SER will fight. At some point, I do wonder if it all comes eastward per the CMC and CFSv2. The other development is the NAO region showing some hints at rejuvenation. Certainly there are multiple options on the table, and even the GEFS has cold coming eastward at times....it has the stormiest look of all modeling.
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