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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Sure. The good thing w/ a -NA0 is that it tends to shunt systems west -> east. This is a powerful block, so I think anything is on the table regarding suppression - overrunning to cold/dry.
  2. Carvers Gap
    While the Kuchera map above seems destined for the scrap heap, it does represent what "could" happen with overrunning into very, very cold air. If we want a big storm, we have to be willing to live on that boundary of dry/cold and what appears to be the GOM trying to be open for business. That storm track has shown up on modeling multiple times.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Here is the Kuchera of the 6z GFS run(again...you all know the rules about taking the GFS seriously at the moment)....
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think right now with seven days to go, there is still going to be a lot of variation. With each run new model data is added, which changes the results some. This is also the range in which modeling often "loses" systems (5-7 days). For now, we have an Arctic front rushing into the area and a slp popping on the lee side of the Apps and maybe another on the coast. Spacing could also be an issue. We have gone from almost nothing in the pattern to multiple vortices and waves - lots to juggle. With each tweek of each new vortex, it changes all of it. A Miller A, a frontal wave, overrunning...or nothing. The first three make the most since given the strength of the front to quote John.
  5. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS overrunning event(can't find a better term for the multiple waves....though tech not a 100% overrunning event)
  6. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking about that as well. If we get a snow layer, we could take a swing at some all time record lows.
  7. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS...Yup.
  8. Carvers Gap
  9. Carvers Gap
    Just getting able to dig through the 12z suite. The Canadian....
  10. Carvers Gap
    Quick LR update(Euro Weeklies): The Weeklies pretty much hold the pattern for the entire run. The source regions gets a bit sketch as maritime air may or may not work into the patter upstream in Canada. Basically the top of the PNA ridge height and position seem to allow maritime Canadian air to flow across the top of the ridge. Still, slightly BN to seasonal temps in January will get the job done. Fly in the ointment(always is one) is that that BN precip will be found over the area. Before anyone panics, that is often the signal for areas which get more snow(or it is just dry....lol). Snowy patterns are often not super juicy on precip anomalies.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Euro was a good pass, but not nearly as much for the valleys. That said, we are going to see a lot of variations this far out. Both the GFS and Euro have some Miller A in them.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC and GFS both are pretty solid to the end of each of their runs.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Do we have enough stuff to track now?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Morning message: We ride with the 0z Euro.
  15. Carvers Gap
    At 10 days out, lots of room for multiple changes. That said, cold is likely going to be in place. Precip has increased of late - it is raining today and less drought. Drought seems to begat drought. Good to see that waning. Northern stream clippers are likely to be missed. Lots of wiggle room right now.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Dare I mention this(I may regret it). The LR does not feature a breakdown of this upcoming pattern anytime soon. The CFSv2 seasonal this morning keeps the pattern through January w/ maybe a slight relaxation away from the extreme cold. Moderation would be returning to normal. I suspect we see a Chinook in Canada scour some cold out there while keeping a similar set-up to 500, and then it reloads mid-Jan(kind of fits Cosgrove's ideas). When the NAO weakens, the PNA gets stronger...and when he PNA weakens, the NAO gets stronger. We are long overdue for a cold winter. Could it be this year? IDK, but it might be on the table. That goes against my own winter ideas, but third year La Ninas (I think) have some clusters of winters which held on.......
  17. Carvers Gap
    Memphis is 40 degrees colder on the 23rd. LOL - quite the correction. Interestingly, the GEPS is flirting with a Miller A on the ensemble. It is not quite there, but it pops a low on the cold front of the 23rd.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS extended shows moderation by early January but holds the PNA/EPO ridge in place until the end of the run.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Check out these analogs
  20. Carvers Gap
    Cold front gradient! Cold 8-14 day forecast by NCEP.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Today was a model battle of "hold my beer who can get the coldest temps"..........83 and 89 are showing up. Bout time for one to throw a 84-85 run in for good measure. Maybe a 93-94?
  22. Carvers Gap
    The EPS says the operational is on crack. LOL. I still cast a wary eye at the operational. I never turn my back on it.
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro dumps the cold westward which in what would be a wild look. The differences at Memphis at 240 in re: to temps have to be staggering between the EURO vs CMC/GFS. Euro looks like a feedback issue which we have seen before. SER hooks into the NAO. Somehow the cold gets under the PNA/EPO block...Not sure any of that is physically possible, but if there is a way for it to be 70F on Christmas, it appears the Euro has found it. LOL. Wild 12z suite. There might be locals which differ by nearly 70-80 degrees in temps depending on model runs at the exact same time.
  24. Carvers Gap
    We really need a "wow" button. The hot dog button just doesn't suffice when we are talking eighty below zero. That is only a mere 110 degrees below freezing. I bet when the temp finally gets above freezing there, people are walking around in shorts.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The source region at 12z in Canada is very cold. We have had those beautiful blocks up top on modeling for weeks, but the source regions was not great. Now, the source region is cold, even by Canada's standards. I was looking at an animation of the CMC(could have been the GFS) late in the run (n hemisphere view) where the cold is just pouring over the pole into North America from a very, very cold Asian continent.
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