Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,659

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    You know...it doesn't show much sign of letting up. I keep looking for a thaw. Right now, a thaw might be just getting back into the 50s. If the GFS/CMC get anywhere near to verifying, that would freeze rivers. If we managed snow on the front end...it isn't going anywhere. The surprise in all of this is seeing the PNA begin to rule the roost (had to borrow that term...) longer term. That is a very cold North American pattern showing up. Remember when all of us were like, "Where is the cold air with that much blocking up top?" There it is. And extreme cold shots are certainly part of the Nina toolbox for sure. It could certainly go dry. The recent pattern has been drought until last week. I would not be shocked to see an EC blizzard at the front end of this pattern or as it relaxes.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yes, that is correct. The further that snow pace gets, the colder that air is gonna be. @John1122 is that a record high pressure over Montana if it verifies?
  3. Carvers Gap
    So the take away from 12z so far is this.....Remember when the polar vortex got trapped under the block, but modeling lost it?
  4. Carvers Gap
    Again, I would be chomping at the bit if I lived along (and northwest of) a line from Memphis to Nashville. That said, that doesn't rule out winter wx in E TN. The track around Dec 20th will need to be watched - slider city if it comes northward. It is suppressed right now, but that could change. All caveats apply for our subtropical latitude. I think the possibilities of an overrunning event are still there. "Where" is the question
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS(all caveats apply), 0z EPS, 0z CMC, and CFSv2 are showing temps 20+ BN around Christmas. Impressive to have that ten days out on ensembles. Would not surprise me to see middle and west TN well into the single digits. E TN will get quite cold as well. IF the SER flexes into that air mass....look out.
  6. Carvers Gap
    In regards to early season storms, we have been playing with house money in E TN for the past decade or so. Climatology doesn't really support snow here until late December. On the flip, Nina does support colder Decembers here. So far, everything we are seeing is fairly text book La Nina...dry fall(drought, followed by rain increasing during winter, cutters on modeling which favor middle and western forum areas,,,, For E TN to score, we need the cold to continue to press eastward. The Greenland block "should" support storms going to our south. Then, it is just a crapshoot as to where it curves northeast(if it does at all). Lots of solutions available in modeling still. The cold pattern is about 8 days later than originally modeled, but it is on it way it appears. I think the real action occurs is when the PNA pops out west in conjunction w/ the NAO. Oddly, we need to see the SER flexing its muscle just enough.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies....Yup. Will post more later.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro and 12z GFS are in agreement for d9-10? LOL. Pattern is loaded up in about ten days(where have we heard that before?!). In all seriousness, it does look good. I have said for a while, I like the Plateau westward for this. But last tnwxnut stated, just depends on where the boundary sets up.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Textbook La Nina storm track....I couldn't draw it up any better. The upcoming wx pattern is just screaming for that track.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I will be glad to share some GFS/GEFS stuff, but we probably should have everyone sign a waiver before viewing them. LOL. The 18z CFSv2 says, "What January thaw?"
  11. Carvers Gap
    Oh yeah, for sure. Looks like our best chances are the week prior to Christmas and maybe just after.
  12. Carvers Gap
    We need a strong block and a slight SER. I think we get both.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is trying to turn out my power on Christmas Eve-eve. The GFS is again advertising an over-running event. No idea if I trust the model, but it has had some consistency in showing that run to run. My guess is that will shift to middle and west...but who knows with that block suppressing things.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Jump right in. We need more folks from middle and west TN. Looks like a nice set-up incoming. Models are going to understandably have a difficult time. Euro hangs-up the cold in the Plains - I think the cold gets further east and I would think its ensemble will show that. This is the type of signal we saw when west TN got hammered a few years back.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Boundary will be difficult to predict at this range, but that is a gradient storm look on the Euro.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Looks like it may get shunted across the mid-gulf States. That looks a lot like the 12z GFS.
  17. Carvers Gap
    At 156 snow is breaking out over northern Louisiana.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro at 150 is the setup. No idea if this run delivers, but that is a good look. Precip building over TX. Boundary over the upper south.
  19. Carvers Gap
    There are ingredients (just spitballing) for a multi-wave over-running event for somewhere in the forum area sometime between the 17th and Christmas. If the GEFS can be believed(huge IF), the over-running characteristic are readily apparent. The gradient sets east-west over the forum area, and then the GOM moisture runs along it. The CMC is suppressed, but it has been overdoing the cold of late. Chance are that gradient is north of where it has it. The ICON has that look. Somewhere between the great bend of the TN River in Alabama and the Ohio...there is a chance for a gradient winter storm.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Dec 17th has possibilities....
  21. Carvers Gap
    Decent snow means showing up on the ensembles(GEPS and GEFS) so far.
  22. Carvers Gap
    At minimum, an upslope NW flow event looks on tap for next weekend. I am definitely watching that slp pop just to our SE. Something to watch. Dare we say the pattern is almost in reach?
  23. Carvers Gap
    ICON and GFS at 12z have some fairly interesting solutions - meaning passes by low pressure to our south.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That was good discussion by you all. I haven't read that article yet. Normally, the GFS has had some predictable tendencies...too cold in the long range, too progressive with storms along the coast inside day 7, too quick to break down HL blocks. Once one factored all of that in, it was usable. What it is doing right now just doesn't seem usable - not predictable and erratic. I was almost wondering if it was handling the MJO regions poorly or just not getting SSTs correctly modeled(edit). I thought I someone note that the jet was being handled differently by it as well. It did get right the push back of the pattern change, so I hate to discount it completely. It is almost like it is overdoing the heat at the mid latitudes, and giving the jet too much strength as a result.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Normally rolling with whichever model is warmest is not a bad idea. Right now, I am not so certain that modeling is cold enough.
×
×
  • Create New...