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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    And whoever wanted the HOT! thread...you got it now.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Not sure if anyone has followed the run after the main event. There are several sneaky short waves which follow. Those won't be modeled well until 24-48 house prior to the event w/ short range modeling. With so much cold in place, those systems could easily drop 1-2" at a pop. This winter reminds me more and more of 10-11.
  3. Carvers Gap
    @Wurbus, there you go.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is plausible for sure. Also, the cold which will ensue after the precip on that run is gonna push -10F over northern parts of middle/west TN.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Just digging into that run....that is a pretty extreme run for this time of year. Something to watch, the GFS is sliding a slp up the coast ahead of the system. Does it eventually jump on that coastal? Maybe. I have seen that happen before. To backtrack from earlier, I give the GFS the edge right now as it seems to be handling the long range a hair better as well. The track is not a Miller A which is a win for the Euro, but the Euro looks far too tame considering the strength of the front.
  6. Carvers Gap
    More than a warm nose. The SLP tracks right through E TN. It did shift slightly eastward. Let's see what the trends hold. Still six days out. Lots of changes still to come I think. I wonder if modeling is about to "find" the storm again. We are about to exit the window where storms are lost.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I probably should clarify. The GFS is basically a toned down Euro track - that is the cave. I don't buy the lack of precip on the Euro. As John noted, if this becomes an extreme event...the GFS may actually take the lead at this point.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, time to wake this thread up! With an Arctic front this strong...that is how it should look. With so much energy, there should be rain changing to snow. I can remember something similar during Jan/Feb 85. The cold basically just took over the front.
  9. Carvers Gap
    18z is a nice and classic La Nina/NAO run for middle and western forum areas.
  10. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is now completely in the Euro camp(edit...eh sort of...clarifying comments in following posts), and a bit less amped. It should provide light snow to much of the forum area and really allows west TN and Arkansas and northern MS to score. I meant to add this for those who have just come back to the board. The GFS update which we speak about is not the one from last year-ish. It was tweeted this past fall again, and hasn't been the same since then.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Again, though. Without the -NAO...we may have seen a stretch of record highs. The Pacific is that bad.
  12. Carvers Gap
    One last note about the -NAO...a strong NAO in December is closely correlated to it returning mid and/or late winter. The CFSv2 shows a zonal pattern to end the month, and potential cold reload quickly thereafter.
  13. Carvers Gap
    One thing I always have to remind myself. We live at a latitude known as the subtropics. It wants to rain here for all but six weeks out of the year(Jan-early Feb).
  14. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, December is rarely our month for snow. It has been recently, but historically the valley rarely scores big snows prior to the fourth week in December. Our best climatology is January to the first week of February. So, we are fighting general climatology as well. NAOs are often the coldest in January and February. In general, it doesn't want to snow in the valleys during December - even old school eras as well.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I placed an answer in banter. Look no further than the upcoming cold shot than to see its effects. An active subtropical jet (STJ) would have had us digging out for a month. Nina climatology (dry) is fighting us all the way. Many historic Kocin storms and historic cold outbreaks have -NAOs. The bigger issue is the lack of frequency in regards to precip. That is related to issues on the Pacific side and not Atlantic. Additionally, one teleconnection is rarely the magic bullet. The PNA/EPO is a great pattern for middle and west TN. Sometimes it is just the luck of the draw. Without the NAO, we are probably sitting in the 70s for December w/ the rising QBO and poor Pacific set-up (to this point). The NAO is actually offsetting some really bad teleconnections. When the NAO relaxes(if we don't have a strong enough PNA), watch what happens w/ temps....
  16. Carvers Gap
    NAO is a much bigger signal for cold in January and February. It is associated w/ many historical cold outbreaks and Kocin storms. Right now we are fighting Nina climatology and a rising QBO(solar as well). One teleconnection by itself is rarely a silver bullet. One need to look no further than the cold shot to see the effects of a -NAO. The Nina is a dry pattern for E TN often - not always. The dry pattern is the problem. If we had an active STJ in conjunction w/ the current NAO....we would need a snow blower.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Will be out and about today, so hold the fort down. The LR on the CFSv2 does have the Chinook. The good thing is it looks like a +PNA type of pattern for January. If so, that will work. We just need normal temps to score in January.
  18. Carvers Gap
    My main take away from last night's runs is that the pattern may very well be active even after the cold front comes along. The boundary gets set, and systems slide along it. Northern stream emphasis is a nickel and dime ticket, but it does pay. The CMC and GFS both have this look. The Euro is sort of on an island after d7....edit the CFSv2 does support is somewhat just not to that extreme.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS, as did the CMC about a day later, has a slider which would give light snow to nearly everyone in the forum area after the 23rd/24th system. I have the discussion for it in the pattern thread so as to keep the two systems separate for now. We can slide it over here when needed. Hopefully, that means that the northern stream is going to be active similar to 14-15.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The Canadian has this but is a day later. That would be a very good look for people also in southern areas of the forum.
  21. Carvers Gap
    It appears the 6z GFS has another round of light snow in western forum areas on Christmas completely unrelated to the storm on the 23rd/24th. Yep, looks like a northern stream piece of energy is diving in along the Arctic boundary. If real, that is a good look as cold air is already in place - a slider.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I am going to use the other thread for the 23rd system for right now. The 6z GFS is trying to get something going on the 25th now as well.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS still goes w/ a powerful Noreaster. It does pop a low over Erie, so it does see the potential for a more westward solution. At one point it has a low was of Detroit, one over maybe PA, and one off the SE coast. There is more snow in Ohio on that run which tells me more energy was held back west of the Apps. I think that is a reasonable run as wonky as it was. The Euro seems too wound up. It makes sense to pop a coastal or a slp in the GOM(which this GFS run has) due to the strength of the front. The 500vort map definitely had a more shallow run over the TN Valley.
  24. Carvers Gap
    At 135, the GFS has a slp in the eastern Panhandle. Got think that is gonna make some sparks here in a few.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Something to consider, the 0z EPS is much different over the Aleutians d10-15. It is much warmer than other modeling in the LR. Its 500mb pattern over the continental US/Canada looks similar to other modeling, but the strength of that low is causing very warm temp anomalies. I can't find that on other models, especially over the eastern US. It makes me wonder if there is an issue w/ the model in the northwest Pacific. It seems like it is stalling systems in error.
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