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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Some good nuggets from the CPC this afternoon. Take a look at those analogs. You can see the storm track on their d8-14 forecasts.... temp, precip, and risk of heavy snow maps.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the update, John!
  3. Carvers Gap
    @fountainguy97I thought this was a great write-up by MRX and ties into your comments about winter wx this week... As for everyone else, lots of great information in here. National Weather Service Morristown TN 326 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 256 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 Key Messages: 1. A significant mountain wave wind event will develop on Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday; strong winds will mix down into the Valley on Wednesday. 2. Rain spreads into the area after midnight tonight, peaking Wednesday morning with a period of locally heavy rainfall possible. Discussion: A significant mountain wave event owing to a very dynamic low pressure system will impact our area beginning overnight lasting into tomorrow. The low currently brewing today in Texas will slide into the Ohio River valley by tomorrow morning bringing with it moderate to heavy rain showers, high winds in the mountains, and strong, gusty winds in the valley. High clouds associated with the incoming storm system will stream into the area through the remainder of the day. Rain will arrive in the overnight hours, and the bulk of the showers will push through during Wednesday morning per CAM guidance. NAM shows some marginal amounts of CAPE above the inversion at Chattanooga, and NBM had thunder, so could hear a roll of thunder in the convective line of showers as they rumble through overnight. Ahead of the system the 850 mb winds associated with the low level jet will strengthen to a 75 knot peak at 12z Wednesday morning. These potent winds and the strengthening pressure gradient along the mountains will promote a strong mountain wave wind event along our Appalachian Mountains. After the showers push out of the area, the low level inversion in the valley will lift and stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface. NBM shows 25-30 mph winds in the valley along with HREF showing gusts to 40 mph. Overall going to be quite gusty behind the rain. The current wind advisories and high wind warnings for the zones are unchanged for this forecast package, everything looks to be on track for significant winds. The remainder of Wednesday will be mainly dry outside of an isolated shower or two, and the gusty winds will gradually begin to diminish from the southern valley north as the afternoon wears on. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 Key Messages: 1. Wednesday`s high winds will continue to drop off in the evening. 2. Lingering wrap around moisture and steepening lapse rates with colder air aloft will produce scattered showers for late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Greatest coverage will be late morning and afternoon Wednesday. Snow showers for the Plateau and higher terrain. A mixture of rain and snow for the Tennessee valley. Light snow accumulations anticipated for the higher terrain. 3. Another fast moving system Sunday and Tuesday. Discussion: For Wednesday night through Thursday night, overall broad upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Initial short-wave will have moved northeast with a good deal of wrap-around low- level moisture across the region. Another wave into the broad trough keeping cold air aloft with relatively steep low-level lapse rates. Model soundings show low-level CAPES of 40-60 which will produce scattered showers. Vertical temperature profile is cold enough for all snow for the Plateau and Mountains with a mixture of rain/snow showers for the valley. Best coverage of showers will be along and north of interstate 40. Model ensemble/probabilities show chances of 1 inch or more snow limited to the highest terrain. Overall for Thursday, a cold and raw day with low-stratu hanging around with temperature struggling to climb to 40 degrees in the valley. For Friday and Saturday, upper flow becomes more zonal with return of sunshine and moderating temperatures. For Sunday, a fast moving jet across the mid-section of the nation within the west to southwest flow aloft will move to the Ohio valley. Associated low-level southerly jet will increase the isentropic lift into the Tennessee valley producing widespread rain. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble shows light QPF amounts generally 0.25 inch or less. For Monday, drier conditions but cloud cover will be slow to erode. For Tuesday, a strong storm system will move toward the southern Appalachians. A lot of uncertainties on how much phasing occurs between the northern and southern jets.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, man. I didn't see it at my normal haunts. So, I figured something was up. That makes me wonder if there was a data issue at 12z.........
  5. Carvers Gap
    Anyone have the 12z Euro run?
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC....might want to take a look at that if you live in middle and west TN. At d8-10, that isn't can kicking when talking details in a pattern vs long wave patterns. Details are going to change over and over again. That said, the CMC run is lights out if true.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And when I say "less enthused" by the ensembles, I mean snow means are not as rigorous as ensemble runs. I think it is because they are so cold. The 0z GEPS(cold bias noted for that model) has -30F air at the border in Minnesota between day 9-11. And when ensembles show us in the 20s and 30s at that range....that is a very cold and extensive air mass. I said this yesterday, it is the cold which is getting my attention. So, we will see if it materializes. I still expect a strong warm-up after this potential cold(I will keep saying that so maybe it won't! LOL) and then another cold shot after that. When I made this thread, I fully expected this month to be VERY warm on average. GIF with man throwing a stack of papers up in the air.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Modeling seems pretty consistent w/ the temp profile below. The GFS is colder w/ temps approaching 0 yet again this winter for areas north of I-40 w/ wind chills likely below zero. The EPS control seems like a good compromise between the 0z "warmer" CMC and bitterly cold 6z GFS. From what I can see on both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro control, there are several waves of cold. Many, many model runs will occur before this time frame arrives, so plenty could change in either direction.
  9. Carvers Gap
    For now, I would say that chance for a strong(maybe severe) cold outbreak are growing, but for sure no certainty at this range. The STJ is active on modeling, and that has often been an error this winter I should note. Trying to find the boundary between cold and the SER is going to be key. That could be draped anywhere from along the Ohio Cincinnati to Jackson(MS) to Atlanta corridor. I would suspect operational modeling is probably over-doing frozen precip as ensembles do not have that. OTH, an over-running event is part of Nina climatology for the years cold can hang on into February(smaller cluster of those). The question I think which needs to be answered is if/when this cold comes into the Plains, just how far to the East does it make it? Most modeling shows an initial dump into the Plains, and then a resupply that surges eastward. It is on that surge eastward(which is maybe not quick) that multiple waves of precip are showing up on overnight modeling.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Right now, all global deterministic models show a similar set-up right after the 200 hour mark. As others have noted, that is a long way out there. For now, I just look at the pattern to see if it supports wintry precipitation. Ensembles are slightly less enthused.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Really that is a “turn out the lights” run by the GFS. That would be misery. The cold is also on the Cfsv2 at 18z. I do think western areas of the forum will see the most extreme cold. I do like the eastern storm tracks which are showing up which would be a Nino signal as well as a secondary Niña climatology track. Still a few days before the cone for cold and snow begins to narrow.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I don’t know what lwh means...but I would be shocked if I got 17” of snow in Feb. LOL. I would gladly take half that total. That said, an overrunning event somewhere in the forum area (IF the cold materializes) would not shock me.
  13. Carvers Gap
    @Math/Met, what are your thoughts about the upcoming wind event?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Between the LR fantasy ice storms and the very real wind event this week....my lights are flickering. That would knock out power in some communities in NE TN.
  15. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is awesome.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The cold worries me some. Severe cold is showing up on many runs across global models from time to time. The Euro Weeklies had a really nice high pressure strung from Alaska to Florida just funneling what I must assume is Siberian grade cold into the Lower 48. No idea if overrunning verifies, but the cold is on the table. Two crazy cold shots in one season would be impressive.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Put that one on the fridge. LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Pretty nice run.
  19. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is a nice run so far to echo Silas.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Whew, it cold up here today. Winch chills this afternoon have been below freezing. It will cut right through you. Snow has been spitting off and on. This is my kind of January day.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies had the same look(derived from 0z run). So, nice to see some consistency.
  22. Carvers Gap
    1.23.23 Euro Weeklies....Farily strong trend of cold being eastwardly displaced(from the last run) into the Plains, Midwest, Upper South, NE, and eastern Canada. They are also picking up on the colder airmass around Feb3rd-10th. The can kicking this time is the warm-up being pushed back. The 12z EPS was colder, so the Weeklies (derived from 0z) were not derived from a one-off run. Of note, the SE ridge gets pushed back pretty far to the SE on this run until mid-month. Roughly weeks 1, 2, 3 were cold w/ 4 seeing some moderation. Feb1-10th is where the cold shot is centered.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I do want to see the Euro Weeklies MJO. The BOMM is trying to loop it back into cold phases and the Euro isn’t far from it. What I am noticing is the MJO looping back into 2 and 3 which are cold for February. Right now I am not even thinking storms, but just getting cold I to place for early February and then waiting to see if we can connect with the STJ. For E TN, this is probably the best look in some time IF it verifies....
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro ensembles and control are again quite cold. The ensembles have cooled quite a bit. The control has a Carolina snowstorm so it could be the track is now shifting eastward as the cold presses.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like both the GEFS and GEPS held serve at 12z regarding cold and potential storminess. The 12z GFS deterministic was load w/ chances. Keep in mind I am just looking at an active STJ and plentiful cold air...the colder of the season in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
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