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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Blackouts lifted.... https://www.wjhl.com/news/local/brightridge-implements-15-minute-rolling-blackouts/
  2. Carvers Gap
    LOL....
  3. Carvers Gap
    Would not shock me. With that much warm air in the middle of winter....things could fire.
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has the clipper. I would prefer it a tad south of our location. It is running the KY/TN border might allow it to tick north out of our forum area as things get closer. Still, it is far more formidable than it was on modeling a few days/runs ago. Something to watch.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Dealying w/ some maps 300+ at the operational level, so proceed at your own risk. Source regions are an issue by the 5th, but likey that gets rectified quite quickly if that ridge continues to retrograde slightly westward. You can see the fairly big flip at 500mb. That is not split flow in the second image, but a stalled slp over the Four Corners. It could be real or feedback...both make sense. Either way, I do actually think split flow develops IF the pattern evolves like that.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And I think modeling doesn't know where the MJO is at times. Generally, and I haven't looked this season, you can just tell by looking at where convection is. I can tell that modeling is struggling w/ the MJO, because the plots are all over the place. Just looking, 12z modeling is wanting to quickly break down eastern ridging and retrograde those AN heights into the West. We will see if that holds. If so, that tells me the MJO is probably sneaking into low amplitude 8.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I love this type of weather, absolutely love it.
  8. Carvers Gap
    During January '85, the light went out in our well house, and we also had pipes freeze under our house. It seems like all we did was thaw things out and fix pipes.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies 46 day snow maps (ensemble and control)...Plenty of snow pack (even some which is erased by the thaw right after Christmas) should be present and allow for cold to funnel southeastward. You can kind of see the various storm tracks - very Nina-esque. The tracks are Plains-Midwest as primary for snow and Apps as a secondary.
  10. Carvers Gap
    And the weeklies last night had this for almost the same time frame 8th-15th. The Weeklies eventually remove the HB block altogether after this and then by the end of January begin to show a rebuilding of the -NAO...
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 flipped back to a colder east. Modeling is waffling a bit w/ the PNA ridge. The pattern is either, IMHO, going to retrograde that Hudson Bay block into a PNA ridge or leave it over the HB. I can't decide which I like better. HB blocks in the middle of winter do deliver the goods more often than not. IMHO, that HB block is going to retrograde into a PNA ridge, but if it doesn't that isn't a terrible look. Here is Jan 9-16th....
  12. Carvers Gap
    Wind chills across MRX...
  13. Carvers Gap
    It is at range but the 6z RGEM has a pretty healthy clipper for Tuesday. The NAM does as well, but it will amp everything at that range...so toss until in range. I trust the RGEM a little more at that range.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, I doubt we have another cold shot that is as cold relative to norms, but I don't have a crystal ball. My guess is opening shot to winter. The CFSv2 at 0z would end winter. I doubt it is right, and it doesn't have support from its own 24hour model suite(4 runs) and doesn't have support from the Euro Weeklies. If we are sitting in mid-January w/ the cold pattern still 14-16 days away....then we know. LOL. There is a possibility the MJO rotates back into 6 and stalls. My guess is that we get at least one more rotation through the cold phases. The Nina "should" weaken as winter progress, and that might help.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Great points. I am going to run the fireplace wood stove insert today, though! Yeah, the RGEM/ Canadian combo have been good so far this winter.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Digging a little deeper this AM, the MJO is handled quite differently by several models, and I think that situation is fluid - meaning the final result is not fixed understandably. I do expect model fluctuations. For example, the 0z CFSv2 is a complete reversal of its 18z self and keeps the ridge in the east. For now, I stick w/ the Euro weeklies (which are fallible at times) which do have a reasonable MJO projection. This morning, the GEFS MJO loops back into phase 6. Most other modeling either continues into low amplitude cold phases or COD. Again, the colder water where phase 8 would be is highly likely hampering the MJO progression. I have seen many comments about this being a Nino look. I definitely disagree. Cold in December, especially west of the Apps and not east near the coast, is a massive Nina signal. The real question going forward is whether this does an '89 and winter disappears. Or, and what is more likely IMO, does winter have several more punches to throw? The Canadian ensemble/operational, GFS operational, and Euro control support a quicker return to winter. I like the 10-11 analogs in addition to some stronger cold analogs(but toned down). I do think January and Feb might well run neutral to warm as a base phase, but w/ strong colder interludes similar to November. Edit: The cold analogs along w/ a base neutral/warm sound juxtaposed to each other. The cold analogs would be used to help identify cold shots. Many of our coldest winters had very warm interludes.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Both the GFS/CMC and some combination of their operationals/ensembles sped up the return of cold/seasonal temps. They returned to the original timeline of the 5th.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The clipper on the 27th looks like it is legit, especially for middle TN. It falls apart as it heads across the forum area which is not uncommon for a feature like that. In NE TN we need clippers on a NW flow vs East/west, especially if modeled as weak as this one is currently. Trend for many clippers is to lift north at the last minute. Many will drop more snow than middles as a little precip goes a long way.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Cmc and did well w MBY - no accumulation. The GFS didn't handle my location well. Most modeling did well w showing the lee side snow shadow. Just a strong cold front here. Addendum: Light snow streamers are in the area. Understandably, most modeling doesn't see those.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Whichever model has low accumulations for E TN is gonna nail it. On to the clipper which might deserve its own thread if real.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through 500 vort maps....that is close to partial phase just to our east as the clipper catches energy rising in latitude along the coast. Going to have to watch that carefully.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GFS and 0z CMC both have the clipper early next week. Good look and makes since given the cold shot. Most cold shots of this degree have a clipper right on their heals.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Even looking at the 18z GFS...it rolled the ridge right through and put the trough back in the East right after New Year. No idea what the analog would be as the details are still a bit blurry. Honestly, it has a lot of 09-10 and 10-11 in that look. I just don't know if it verifies, because we are talking like 15-17 days before the transition...unless the 18z is correct, and we just continue as is....
  24. Carvers Gap
    Agee
  25. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS looks better over the eastern valley north of 40.
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