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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I posted the above in order to show how hostile climatology is towards coastal storms - aka as why E TN has less snow during some(certainly not all) Nina winters. Dial up whatever pattern we want...and climo is pretty hostile to colder weather from the spine of the Apps to the East coast. It took a record cold snap to drive cold to the coast this time around. There are some notable exceptions. Some of the very worst winters in my lifetime were weak La Ninas - snow, ice, cold. Some of the dries/coldest are weak La Ninas. They are extreme winters. Conversely, Nino winters are 40s/50s for highs w/ rain all winter long - not a lot of variability. Nina winters are HIGHLY variable as we are seeing this winter. When one looks at modeling, we can see the clusters of cold Nina cold winters from time to time. We also see the ones where winter gets progressively warmer which is also textbook Nina, especially for E TN. It was an easy call to say cold was coming for December. I am wary of a mirage for January as cold runs against the more weighted cluster of winters which warm as winter progresses. OTH, there are some winters which warmed, and then flipped back cold. I seriously doubt outside of a good guess(and excluding skilled, elite wx forecasters), many have a good handle on what comes after Jan5th and include me in the bunch which don't know. I lean cold, but am much less certain than the December call.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I was taking just a few minutes to look at generalized temp patterns during La Nina winters. December is textbook Nina. The atmospheric river is about to take care of any precip deficits on the West coast.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Felt like a heat wave when the sun came out today and we made it to the upper 30s.
  4. Carvers Gap
    This is a much better look....
  5. Carvers Gap
    This is ONLY an example as it is too far out there to be taken seriously. This is my concern w/ the HB block. Because of the configuration in the Pac(PNA is weak), this is all zonal maritime air. We have seen this during at some point during the past three winters. I remember being excited about the HB block when it first showed up a few years ago. I soon was faced with the reality that it wasn't going to deliver as once thought. The source region was hot garbage. We got a ton of storms which passed to our south, and got a ton of rain. I think we do OK immediately after this, but if this locks....not good.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Man, I went running last evening. I drive a truck, but decided to take the van instead. Bad decision. We got caught in that band south of Kingsport. It was pouring in Colonial Heights. I got to my house, and nada. We got a very slight dusting which makes our second.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I would go 50/50 we see temps below zero again. I generally try to keep my "gut" feelings out of the thread, and just stick to model observations/interpretation. This winter just has the feeling that we are going to see this pattern repeat. I have some in-house(meaning in my head) analogs which have been doing pretty ok. 10-11 is a good start. But this winter has some HL blocking that is old school in nature. '89 haunts me, and this has some characteristics of that....but some great winters started strong, had a thaw, and then went gangbusters. That is all I will say or I will have egg on my face!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Very true. These past two Nina winters have featured a several early season cold outbreaks, and some December snow....then IMBY(NE TN for those new to the forum) after December - zip. The primary storm track is right over E TN which means snow to my west and rain here. Middle and west TN, after MANY subpar winters, are poised to take the third straight season of of "most snow." Even TYS and MRX have been getting more snow during these Nina winters. In a normal winter, TRI usually gets far more snow other than your region. The problem for us during Nina's is storm track(no coastals which we need here), and drought which causes dry conditions during fall. Drought begets drought here. It takes a while to break it which means when temps are colder during Ninas(Dec), dry conditions persist, and it is nearly impossible to line-up cold and precip. 14-15 was rare IMBY, because we got northwest flow in Kingsport which is not normal. Sometimes it just snows where it is gonna snow.
  9. Carvers Gap
    And truly, snow patterns (snow on snow stuff) have never been the the norm at my elevation. Those patterns generally involve entrenched cold. I did wonder if the atmosphere was still able to get severely cold up until last week(like 84-85 cold). I now know it can. If snow had been on the ground, we would have approached the all time stuff which is incredible to me.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Come on over any time, Beavis, and commiserate!
  11. Carvers Gap
    It has been really bad over here. I spoke to someone who was in the Lowe's plumbing department yesterday - slammed. I can only imagine what regional industries are having to deal with right now. -20F to -30F wind chills over an entire plant - oof. Honestly, I am glad for some warmer weather.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I read a lot of the MA forum. Those guys really depend on the 50/50. Just gleening from them, December is rarely a good month for snow. I am guessing that feature is more prominent Jan-March but not certain. Good stuff, man!
  13. Carvers Gap
    To paraphrase Bob Chill today, in order to have big storm on the East Coast, we need the Atlantic to be good, and....we just need the Pacific to be not hostile. As soon as the Pacific became less hostile, the dam broke. Had the NAO not been there, we would have torched the entire month IMO. It saved us from a continuation of fall. I honestly do not understand the debate that the NAO didn't produce. I have been watching weather a very long time....these types of Decembers are rare birds. O9-10 is a rare bird. The Christmas snow that we had two years ago...rare. Generally, December is a step down to winter. No matter the synoptic set-up, it is generally not snow. For every, 09-10 I can provide 25 examples to the counter re: December. This December has featured record cold, crazy low wind chills, snow in middle and west TN, nearly record high (edit) pressures in Montana, blizzards, and more. Just because one doesn't get snow in their own backyard doesn't mean the NAO was not effective. As we all know snow requires a bit of "luck." Right now, the NAO helped ward off a rising QBO and terrible Pac. In fact, this December would rival many January and February patterns. I just hope folks can appreciate that what just occurred is not the norm, and is far from it. We were fortunate to track it and witness it. That big red ball over Greenland surely beats the big red ball over the Aleutians. And I am speaking as probably someone who received the least snow in the entire forum this month outside of Chattanooga. I would add that the NAO has been far more present during the past 2-3 years. I don't think it an accident that middle and west TN have experienced more snowfall(compared to putrid previous years) during that timeframe either. The Nina kicks that cold to the mid-section, but the cold is available. I certainly agree that having Pacific healthy is a good thing. I just strongly disagree that the NAO didn't produce.
  14. Carvers Gap
    And continuing to look forward, some things I have seen in modeling just to review or add to: 1. The MJO generally looks like it will traverse the cold phases at low amplitude. 2. The CFSv2 is not enthused w/ cold until later in the month on about every-other-run. 3. Ensembles are a buffet of PNA and/or HB blocks w/ generally BN heights over the SE and E by Jan 8-10. We lose the Greenland block for some time. There are hints it may return. 4. Be happy you live on this side of the Apps in regards to cold and snow. If indeed this is the start to winter(and not the totality of winter as seen in 89), last week was a great start. 5. The Euro Weeklies (difficult to know if bias is in play there), takes the trough back northwest during the fourth week of January, and never looks back. That is plausible and is even in my winter forecast which I put out in June. I am not overly confident the Weeklies are correct there, but they could be. I tend to think the same pattern (cold builds in the Mountain West and spreads eastward) is the base pattern w/ a standing SER in the SE during the interludes.
  15. Carvers Gap
    PNA DRIVER? Moving the conversation forward. Afternoon modeling points towards an easterly displaced PNA ridge(almost a Plains ridge at times) which at times may hook into the HB block. It is not a great position for the PNA - need it back west just a tad. That said, I don't think modeling has this totally nailed down yet. If we were wanting to play the Nino card...the BN weakness over east w/ the PNA hooked into HL blocking looks almost textbook in the d10-15 EPS run. Will it have a source region for cold? TBD...and an important question to be answered moving forward. Of importance, our climatology begins to favor snow. There is less working against us. And sometimes....it just snows where it wants to snow regardless of the pattern. I have seen snow during warm patterns. And as we noted over the summer, Nina set-ups tend to favor middle and west TN. Does the waning Nina begin to release that grip and allow E TN snow? TBD...or Does Nina hang on and send the trough back to the northwest? TBD. Again, I like the 10-11 analog. Let's see if it still works in January.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we posted the 10-11 analogs back in mid November in the December thread - nearly those exact images.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is just off in the weeds rounding back on the same points.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I am very aware of 09-10 and it is an anomaly re: December snow. You are missing the point. My point is that NAO blocking is effective as you just effectively proved. We normally don't get great NAO's early in the season and that conflicts directly w/ December's climatology in the eastern valley. One might make the case that December's climatology is actually not favorable for snow as blocking often develops later in winter. That might be why we don't have many 09-10 examples in the past 50 years. Snow is often just luck of the draw in regards to timing. The STJ, if I remember correctly, was more active during the cold snap of 09-10. Heck, the actual snow were got was terribly forecasted as many were caught on the road during rush hour. We entered this December in a drought. That is a pretty big difference. If the STJ had been active this December...different result.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Not necessarily. We had and HB block a few years ago, and maritime air flooded the continent. They can be really good re: storm track, but we have to have help from the Pacific or temps wash out. We got great benefits from the NAO - two snow events and record low temps. We are just going to have to disagree on that. I really don't want to go round and round on that anymore. There really is no disputing its benefits this month. Again, it doesn't want to snow in the forum area during December no matter what the set-up. That is the last I will discuss that as it is just beating a dead horse. The NAO brought near record cold, winter storms, and a great event to track for much of the country from the Rockies to the Apps.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through MJO plots this morning. Most, not all, try to rotate the MJO at low amplitude through the colder phases. There are cold outliers and very few warm outliers. That said, the models w/ the worst rotation through the MJO is the colder - GEFS. IF the MJO plots are correct, one would think some significant corrections to colder are upcoming. That said, the HB block is a thorn right now in some modeling. I have beaten that horse for days. It creates zonal flow. So, it is possible the MJO is about to lose influence, and we are about to enter a Wild West pattern where multiple teleconnections hold sway and forecasting is difficult. Short story: We are reaching prime climatology. The MJO is good. There are flies in the ointment, but when isn't there?
  21. Carvers Gap
    We continue to track a potential winter storm between the 7th and 10th. The GFS continues to show a storm during that time range. Last night, it went full Miller A. Previously, it has been a ULL moving through after a big storm. It has been on the GEFS for several days now. Interestingly, the CMC and Euro have similar evolutions at 0z...but their pattern transition and storm window is 48 hours-ish later. Notably, the EPS has a storm signal sliding across the Deep South just after the GFS does. My guess is the GFS/GEFS is too fast. However, big storms can/do form along cold outbreaks during January. We are about to enter our best climatology during the second and third weeks of January. For now, the GFS seems to favor a cutter and then a second storm on its heels which is further east. My preliminary guess is that storm would again favor middle and western areas of the forum. As we saw yesterday w/ the clipper, the eastern valley does best when cold is already in place. But we will see, it is a LONG way out there, and we are going to likely see multiple scenarios on modeling. One thing I am noticing is that there is a cluster of runs w/ very weak ridging out west. That has to be watched as noted above as that produces not so much cold here. What is interesting is that there is split flow found in most solutions re: how tall that ridge is. Split flow during January is normally playing w/ house money. There is also a cluster of solutions w/ a very powerful PNA ridge out West, and produces deep cold here. My guess is that we continue the same pattern as November. A period of warmth followed by cold temps - wash, rinse, repeat.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Robert, from WxSouth, had an interesting post on FB just a few minutes ago.
  23. Carvers Gap
    This model waffling reminds me of early December. Modeling at 12z and 18z seemed to be a little more aggressive w/ both the timeline and intensity of the cold. I just posted above(must have been at almost the exact same time you post this), the transition that the Euro control (notably WARM bias) sees from early Jan to the end of Jan. What I am looking for is whether the eastern trough can begin establishing around the 5th w/ likely a cutter. If it can hold, the dam may break and the PNA pops...and we hold a cold pattern for a bit. If the ridge can hold around the 5th, then we may be kicking the can. Good signs today. We will see what tomorrow brings. With models swinging so wildly right now, I have to think more cold is on the way into the Lower 48. Part of me thinks this is just going to be one of those winters that finds a way to stay cold. Fingers crossed. If that pattern holds, you would very likely see multiple bouts of snow. Is it right? Time will tell.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Food for thought....
  25. Carvers Gap
    Clippers often over perform when they follow big cold snaps. It also looked to me like you all caught some sort of jet max/streak(don’t know the official term) over the Central Valley.
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