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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    CMC. Correction, around 192. That is a good look w/ HP sitting over the top.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC w/ a nice look just around 200 for the middle and western areas of the forum. The 12z GFS has a lot of looks as well including a Nor'Easter for the cities of the Northeast. Good suite so far.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And I sort of get the frustration with having a great start to winter only to see AN heights quickly supplant those cold temps. Just be glad you all don’t live in some areas of the coastal MA and Northeast. It snowed in Alabama before it snowed there. Time will tell if the winter goes full fizzle. One can make the case either way. We just don’t know in early January. Ya’ll might not want to look at my seasonal forecast from June re: February. I actually think I will possibly bust for Feb. Nina winters are often front loaded, but some really good ones came back. I think there is a decent chance this one does. However, as Jeff noted, sometimes cold sources have issues w reloading w such a severe and early cold snap. Thanks, Flash. All of you all make the site a great place. I say this often, but it is a huge deal to have our own forum - all of TN, southern KY, northern MS, northern AL, eastern Arkansas, SW VA, and also the mountain communities of western NC who participate. There is a lot of knowledge here. The microclimate discussions are exceptional. It is a great wx community.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 0z CFSv2 progression this morning which is a break from recent runs. It flips around a lot, so beware! That said, both the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 (for now!) reasonably reflect their own MJO projections. But is it right? We will find out I guess.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Now, to the matters at hand...January weather. The 6z GFS(who knows if it is right), continues to show potential for snow east of the MS and even to the EC itself. The 0z CMC and the Euro(to some extent) reflect this in the d7-10 range. They are thread-the-needle looks, but do reflect the influence of the HB block. Hey, if we are going to have a block which is bottling up the cold...maybe we can at least benefit from the suppressed tracks which are plentiful on today's runs so far.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Here are the last three winters including this one.....Not sure about your location(these maps always have discrepancies and there are definitely some areas which do better than others which smoothing covers), but many(lower elevation middle and west TN) were close to or above their seasonal norms for the two snow seasons prior to this one. North of I-40, they should be near seasonal norms in the same areas (up to this point in the season). And that snow didn't just fall around Christmas. So, I disagree in general. I am sure there are exceptions, and maybe your local was one of those. E TN, especially SE E TN, would reflect that comment more than middle and western areas.
  7. Carvers Gap
    16- run to start the game! I completely forgot about it. I got caught up watching a guy restore an old barn in Montana, and just missed it.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It may and it may not. That is always one of the plausible outcomes at any point during winter. Fortunately, none of us know the future which is why we try our hand at this. We will continue to look for potential cold and storms regardless....
  9. Carvers Gap
    I thought you were gonna show me how much better that +PNA was gonna be after the -NAO. Or is that a different consensus?
  10. Carvers Gap
    And it could be that the trough sticks and holds out west. Climatology absolutely supports it - at least one cluster does anyway. However, we just saw erroneous feedback in modeling which tried to extend the recent cold spell to the horizon. I do wonder if we are seeing modeling not recognizing the MJO phase change and it is simply perpetuation the current phase. JB mentioned that this evening and Cosgrove seemed to imply it. JB, also to his credit, did find four times that MJO rotated through 8 and it stayed warm. It is rare, but not without minor precedent. We are all getting a good lesson on why the NAO(or absence of...) is important. What we see currently and on modeling is what all of December would have likely looked like w/out AN heights over Greenland. Time will tell. I have a feeling that we will see changes in LR modeling soon. D10+ forecasts can flip on a dime. That said, if we don't switch back...enjoy the nice weather. It sure beats mid 90s and 75% humidity! I definitely thought of January 1990 today as we hit the low 70s in TRI. I suspect we see winter roll back through from the last week of Jan through February. But I am not writing off Jan 5-25th either. As long as that HB block is in place, there is a thread-the-needle chance for a storm as it will suppress systems from time-to-time.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Here is what Cosgrove said: While I have emphasized the importance of model convergence on the sudden stratospheric warming event (combined with severe stretching of the circumpolar vortex), I must also stress that the interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the polar westerlies is a key element in getting the USA back into winter weather. There is no linkage between these two features, but as an MJO pulse builds near the International Dateline in about 240 hours, that set-up is likely to change. Contact between tropical forcing and the higher latitude flow will amplify the 500MB flow, pushing out the West Coast disturbance in favor of ridging. Which, in turn, will enhance cold air drainage from Siberia and northern Canada. Here is a link for anyone wanting to read the full comments: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7016045623946723328
  12. Carvers Gap
    I am definitely interested in the 9th-13th range. I think we possibly may see at least one storm along the eastern seaboard. Temps are marginal. That said, both the Euro, CMC, and GFS are hinting at possible storminess then. The 18z GFS does actually show an acceptable MJO progression. Let's hope we see more of that.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS/GEFS are very quick to remove the HB block after d12 or so. Looks like a reset of sorts will be underway shortly after that. Will it result in a western trough? Maybe. Will that western trough roll eastward and result in another cold shot(s)? Maybe. Indeed, the answer might be both.
  14. Carvers Gap
    As we see the strat warm, the response to the troposphere might look a lot like that east base -NAO. Good trends, albeit very far out there trends.....
  15. Carvers Gap
    I often try to do a run-to-run change to catch trends on modeling. The 12z GFS, huge grains.....has a massive -NAO developing after 300+. IF that is real, and it may not be, that is going to completely disrupt LR modeling.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z ICON has a similar look, but is more westerly. If in doubt, cutter is the default.
  17. Carvers Gap
    And just like that the 12z GFS has a trackable system next Sunday. Temps are marginal in the valley, but the track is sound. At min, that is threat for the mountains if the GFS is right - big IF!
  18. Carvers Gap
    This is from the Weeklies last evening(which I think was a a bit quick w/ eroding this pattern). However, this is a rough timeline I am following. I think we see a cool down between the 5th and 10th. Then, we see another warm-up. Then, if the MJO is correct(and the timeline below seems consistent between modeling), we start working back towards seasonal by the 20th. This seems eerily similar to the timelines of the past two cold snaps - lots of can kicking and then cold. Jeff. 2-3 more weeks after MKL day or starting from today?
  19. Carvers Gap
    Prayers for Damar Hamlin and his family.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I saw that. Awesome that you know him. He has definitely been on a roll. He called this thaw in his original winter forecast.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, It has been a really good couple of decades for the Yellowstone ecosystem w so many Nina winters. When I first started going out there during the late 90s, their runoff season was often over by late June, and their rivers were suffering from low water. Lately, runoff season has generally lasted well into July. Last year, they had good snow, but poor water content. Makes for better fishing and survivable fire seasons. Their situation is much improved.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The January thaw is at hand. Unfortunately, the HB block is the new pattern. Why do I mention that? Several days ago I had said that I was was 50/50 on whether it was transient or a new pattern. Well, it is the new pattern as it will take roughly four weeks to move it out it appears. The Euro Weeklies begin to break down that pesky HB block down during the last 1/2 of January. January will most certainly finish AN due to the first five days alone. I hate it, but it will check off the box for my January winter forecast. We will see a gradual step down beginning during the second half of January IF the Weeklies are correct. February looks decent. I have said it all day. This is a classic Nina pattern. The trough, once the HB block is gone, will set up in the northern Rockies and send multiple cold fronts eastward. I suspect there will be a fairly strong front towards the end of the month. Normal temps from mid-Jan to mid-Feb will likely get the job done. IF(stress), the Weeklies are correct they are following the path of many good winters where winter returns during the latter half of January. Time will tell.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And the fly in the ointment w/ the Euro Weeklies is a resurgence of dry to very dry weather pattern for many from the Plains to the EC, especially the SE after Jan 10th. Dry weather simply reduces our chances at precip and reduces our chances of snow. One caveat...sometimes when dry conditions show-up on the Euro Weeklies it can be due to a snowy pattern. I lean just dry conditions unrelated to frozen precip, but I won't rule it out.
  24. Carvers Gap
    To echo @Met1985, I think we can can get caught-up in lots of causal stuff when really the pattern has been repeating for some time. It is quite literally the MJO cycle which has been quietly driving the pattern. The HB bay block is the issue right now. I will have to go back and look at a previous winter. Nearly the exact same HB block occurred occurred. A southerly displaced HB block locked-in. We had great tracks but not as much cold due to maritime influence. As for this month, the PNA/EPO ridge was an error by late December modeling - it never developed. When we lost the NAO, things went warm. As @Daniel Boone noted, the GOA low is the issue. The counter clockwise rotation when it hits the southern jet.... That GOA low is locked in tandem w/ the HB block. It is kind of a chicken and egg argument. The Euro Weeklies actually look decent this evening. If I get time, I will post some follow-up thoughts after this post. It is just kind of a back-and-forth pattern. The Weeklies weaken the HB block and eventually a trough/ridge cycle returns to the US which looks quite similar to November. Kind of like unplugging a drain line when that block eases.... The upcoming SE trough retrogrades briefly into the west, but as the HB block dissipates, it pushes into the nation's mid-section and then eastward. The EPS and Weeklies have been pretty consistent with this look. The CFSv2 is looking similar today. AtlanticWx had a post yesterday in the MA forum about the jet extension. I knew I had read it somewhere. I am not sure where he got it.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Ditto. Well said.
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