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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    EPS around the 22nd.
  2. Carvers Gap
    LOL. The 0z EPS caved to the GEFS last night...only to have the GEFS leave it join the CMC camp shortly after the 23rd. The CMC hasn't budged. With models bouncing around, this tells me some extremely cold air is about to enter the pattern in the Lower 48. I am sure the strat warm stuff has modeling all over the place as well. To echo Holston, this is almost the same repeat as late November. Can kicking, strat stuff, and then we got 4-5 day of extreme cold. The 6z GEFS is actually very cold later in its run which is a huge change. It mirrors the CMC in the same way. Both have a very cold shot around 300. It seems modeling his having trouble w/ the low in the southwest and also which storm could deliver cold. Source regions are going to reload. All it will take is one cutter or one coastal to deliver a very cold shot. I think that is what modeling is trying to "figure out."
  3. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good thump here w/ a heavy snow shower.
  4. Carvers Gap
  5. Carvers Gap
    Snow showers here in western Sullivan Co.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That a split?
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS bringing out the cold hammer. Not sure what the GEFS is doing, but the GEPS and EPS would provide an excellent window for winter.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro has a second storm behind that one in which the 500vort map looks quite potent. The 12z Euro seems to match ensembles and the MJO the closest FWIW. Now, back to the upslope event nearest you...........
  9. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good pass on the 22nd on both the Euro and GFS at 12z
  10. Carvers Gap
    The GFS this morning is on an island and is an outlier in the d1-16 range. It is either going to score a coup or miss badly. The CMC and Euro(along w/ ensembles) show a return to seasonal or BN beginning the 22nd/23rd. The pattern of the past three months looks to continue, but quicker cycles. The Jan 23rd to first or second week of Feb looks to be our window for winter storms this go around. Then the trough is almost universally forecast to retrograde into the northern Rockies which is no surprise there as that is classic Nina climatology. However, due to shortening wavelengths, we should see waves of cold push int eastern North America as the cold source regions will have been restored to winter type levels. If we really want fun and games, we need to pull for the CMC to be correct as it locks the trough over eastern NA w/ PV source regions. I don't totally discount the Canadian run as it has scored highly this winter at that range. At some point, however, the MJO plots should dictate a rotation through warmer phases down the road. For now, I would blend the Canadian and Euro suite(including ensembles), and go with that.
  11. Carvers Gap
    If Mt Leconte would donate a couple of inches of snow for MBY(from its 600 inches of predicted snow), that would be good.
  12. Carvers Gap
    So, did the 12z Euro get the thunder in the mountains message? Indeed. Reel that baby in!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Man, have you ever watched a series and it ends on a cliffhanger? I know everyone has, but the 12z Euro.... ....only 20 more runs to go.
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looks a bit interesting late in the run....
  15. Carvers Gap
    For posterity....and why following the weather is sometimes boring.............and sometimes not.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Thunder IMBY @Holston_River_Rambler
  17. Carvers Gap
    I put this in the main pattern thread, but it probably needs to be here as well. To tag onto what @John1122said earlier...
  18. Carvers Gap
    Warm start, cold, flooding, snow, severe wx, and variable....those are the tags which I gave the month of January when I created the thread in December. Little did I know it would happen all on the same day. SW VA, SE KY, and the mountains of E TN/NC are in for a wild, wild ride.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the January hurricane run from earlier this week brings home that point.
  20. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I mean it is a regular buffet of weather solutions. In all seriousness, it is having an issue w/ a slp stalling in the southwest. Could it happen? Sure. I have learned never to complete discount the Four Corners low(which stalls out).....but I am not sure it will have support from its own ensemble. We'll see here in a minute. I also think some of those wild runs have to be skewing the GEFS as it likely contains multiple crazy members.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 22nd-23rd timeframe slipped inside the 10day window today...so, it needs to be watched. The 12z GFS is out of sync w/ previous ensembles which is no surprise as its verification scores this winter have been pretty bad at this range. The 12z CMC has a decent look at 240, but that is about all will say w/ it being that far out there. Just some interesting stuff to watch for this weekend as that timeframe comes into view.
  22. Carvers Gap
    One thing to note, wavelengths often begin to change in February. Long story short, storms can appear quickly and unexpectedly on modeling due to shorten wavelengths during February. So, what looks like a barren pattern may actually just be a mirage.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS has sped up the pattern change a bit to the 21st. That looks a bit quick to me, but does support the operational. I do think the SER is going to try to flex at times. It is a blessing and a curse...we need it in small doses to prevent systems from going OTS or being too suppressed. Get too much of it, and E TN folks will see warm-nose city. I think the pattern will be base cold after the 23rd for a 2-3 weeks. However, like the past three winters, the cold comes in surges and the SER is present as the cold departs, and then the cold comes back. Wash, rinse, repeat. The MJO "should" rotate back into warm phases at some point. Though, for the past couple of days, there have been hints that it will try to cycle back into the COD w/a a chance to skip them. My guess is it takes the warm tour, but there should be plenty of cold prior to that.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Good catch! That is a pretty rapid drop.
  25. Carvers Gap
    That is 18z BTW. I doubt 0z changed by much in terms of wind direction. I am going to try to get up to the mountains(as far as I can safely anyway) to see it. I hope the ski resorts make out like bandits.
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