Carvers Gap

The MJO is almost off the charts in phase 8. Crazy look this morning.

Of note, the 0z Euro control does continue its recent daily tradition of a NE TN paste storm around mid-month. The operational was close. Nothing set in stone. Again, higher elevations, SE KY, the Plateau, SW VA, NE TN, and W NC....have better climatology for spring snow.

I should add that medium-range modeling is signaling a higher elevation, upslope snow event around the 15th. Something to keep an eye on.

Cold weather looks on schedule. For now, we will say 10-14 days in duration. This is going to likely come in waves as the spring season is going to send warmth north after each cold air mass grows stale. As I mentioned before, it will be interesting to see if the cold can erase the AN departures of the first few days. Again, the real question for me is whether this cold snap is a long term pattern change at our latitude. I lean 55/45 that it is, maybe 60/40. I do think that the air mass will be less extreme than originally modeled, but still likely to be very cod. Honestly, I am not a huge fan of winter in March. So, I will gladly take the less extreme version if that is the hand we are dealt. The coldest days could be 8-12 degrees BN. Temps should be around normal by the weekend w/ next week likely being the coldest (roughly around the 15th). Winter wx is not off the table, but cold rain is more likely!

From the MRX afternoon disco: Midweek another system will begin moving across the center of the country, and increasing moisture return brings richer moisture into our region. This equates to low rain chances on Wednesday in the southern valley and then more widespread on Thursday afternoon. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light but steady from Thursday going into Saturday, so no impacts are expected. Early look at storm total rainfall is a half inch to an inch. Differing guidance solutions over placement of the rain and evolution of this weekend`s synoptic pattern change leave plenty of uncertainty. However, there is building confidence in cooler weather and frost/freeze issues beginning at the end of this period.

Man. LOL.

I think the atmosphere is starting to reflect Nino even now. Great stuff as usual, Jax.

The mid-term cold is less of a question for me know. The 500mb is on schedule to change as are temps around the 11th. The can kicking has been hours instead of days/weeks. The question for me is whether this is a 10-14 day cold shot or a true 4-6 pattern shift. I lean slight towards long term pattern shift. Why? Nino climatology supports the colder SE for spring. The CPC maps have changed little from the ones I posted earlier. So, the cold has support from pro forecasters and not folks who do this as a hobby. I wish I had better news for people who need a warmer spring, including me. Maybe that will change, and we will see a balance of warm and cold says vs base cold.

The 6z GFS looks like a winter time pattern with HL blocking. If I didn’t know the date, I would be more excited as I know seasonal climatology is going to be fighting us. That said, it is worth nothing that March can bring surprises and storms often over perform compared to modeling output. I would be pretty fired up if I lived in tbe mountains. Models still look solidly on board for a 10+ day period of cold whining just before mid month. It could be longer than that. Modeling has tended to overestimate staying power for cold during the past several months, so I am starting with that timeframe. The potential is there that this pattern is base cold w/ warm interludes for much of the second half of March through mid-April. This is a pretty big pattern shakeup at 500mp. If this was mid-winter, this would be the golden ticket....but again, seasonal climatology is going to fight this every step of the way(must be important if I say that twice. LOL). Still this is likely going to be a sharp change from the early summer temps that we have experienced. If a storm cranks, a killing freeze is easily on the table. As we noted earlier...whatever is most miserable is likely.

That is the driest fall I ever remember. You could have walked across the North Fork of the Holston up here w/out getting your feet wet. (Today it is nearly at flash flood stage). I was sitting at a youth basketball game, and someone told me Gatlinburg had embers dropping into the middle of the city. I thought, "No way." I hustled home and watched Knoxville TV channels that night. I was just stunned.

For those willing to do some digging, the Euro control run at 0z....that was interesting.

If you are here looking for a professional forecast, I suggest you have come to the wrong place. If you are not laying out your own ideas and just going, “I told you so,” you have definitely come to the wrong place. But if you are here to learn, to take risks, have fun , and enjoy weather...you have come to the right place. This is a place where we risk being wrong in order to get better - that is the only way to get better. The “I told you so” stuff needs to go in banter. Otherwise, we are going to have unreadable threads - go look at the MA. As for the cold, still looks highly likely as the long wave pattern which will deliver it looks reasonably locked in. The question is which storm brings it? At 18z, the GFS cut the storm on the 10th too far to the West. It jumped on the next system. IMO, this is just a matter of “when” and not “if.” You won’t hear me say that often. The December cold had the same issue. And that can all change as we don’t control any aspect of the weather. We can only predict. Shoulder seasons are easily the most difficult times for modeling. I won’t be posting a ton today as Saturday has its own responsibilities for me. So, don’t mistake my absence for a change in tune.

The wind 100% met MRX forecasts in western Sullivan County. The worst of the wind came after the storms.

TRI has recorded a gust of 49mph there. We have easily hit that here. I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't sustained at 35-40mph.

Remind me what happened during that March?

Sounds like a freight train driving by outside. Wind is howling.

Assuming that person is ok, that power line likely saved their life. Unbelievable to see it holding up that tree.

Van Gough had a time when he painted only in blue. In honor of @tnweathernut, I call this "Spring Before Winter."

I want to open what is behind door #25. Door #3 is my backup.

The above probably encompasses two storm windows March 1-13 and after March 15th. Decent signal for the SE.

12z GEFS ensembles.

A second tornado warning has been posted w the same cell as above. This one tracks just south of the TN/AL line.

Just released on FB....source MRX.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 TNC051-031830- /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-230303T1830Z/ Franklin TN- 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY... At 1202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Huntland, or 10 miles southwest of Winchester, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Cowan around 1215 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Beans Creek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3500 8625 3506 8626 3523 8598 3499 8595 TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 242DEG 52KT 3505 8618 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN